JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/16

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

Sorry for the late start! My login was giving me issues.

Jeremy

12:15

What do you think of Noah Syndergaard's chances for NL Cy Young?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Probably not happening.

mtsw

12:16

One of the fastest-growing TV genres is "Slow TV." Examples include a 7 hour video showing the view out the window of a train ride in Norway. Should baseball embrace the slower-paced, leisurely aspect of the game rather than chasing "The MTV generation demands constant stimulation" theory?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Eh, I think fast tv still is more popular than slow tv!

Not that I want MLB to do any crazy dumbass stuff

Sandy Koufax

12:18

The Cubs lack of top-line pitching prospects is well known, but there are a few players in the lower levels showing promise. What are the next steps (improvements) for pitchers like Trevor Clifton and Dylan Cease?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Really, in Cease's case, just keeping healthy and improving command. Clifton needs to keep working on the changeup, which is way improved over last year.

mtsw

12:19

Of the Orioles' shaky starters, which are you least uncomfortable being the 4th (or 3rd if they have to shutdown Bundy) starter in a playoff rotation? They aren't seriously going to start Ubaldo in game 3 of a potential ALDS are they?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Trying ot make me cry? I'm actually more worried about Gallardo, simply becuase Ubaldo kinda runs into good games once in awhile, while even a good Gallardo game feels kind of mediocre.

Though I'd prefer to see neither of them.

Burts_beads

12:20

I've heard in multiple chats that Mike Aviles is "an awesome person" and clubhouse presence and that's the reason he's still on a roster these days. I've heard this from multiple writers and I was wondering why this is the universal opinion. Why is Aviles so awesome? I've never really heard any reasons why

Dan Szymborski

12:20

That I couldn't tell you - I don't think I've ever even spoken to him. And I'm uncomfortable rating a guy's personality second-hand.

Slew

12:21

Less Salazar and Carrasco, the Indians are toast in the playoffs, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It's tough, but we're talking shor tseries

Zonk

12:21

The 2016 Cincinnati Reds are on track to be, by Fangraphs WAR, the worst pitching staff since the 1890 Alleghenies. That Alleghenies team went 23-112, surrendered 1253 runs, and was so bad they only threw 119 complete games. The Reds are making that kind of history!!!!!

Leif Erikson

12:21

Dan Chat is back!

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It was back last week!

MealTicket

12:22

Do the Mets give Addison Reed a QO? He deserves one, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

A little early for that

It's literally 13 months before they need to make the decision.

Graves

12:24

Why do people care so much about team context for MVP but disregard it for Cy Young and ROY Awards?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Don't ask me, I rant about this a lot.

The word "valuable" in the name gives a lot of wiggle room for arbitrary nonsense.

Even though valuable is defined on the ballot itself

Graves

12:25

Will the NL ever adopt the DH? Do you think someday baseball will have 9 DH spots, like a football team with offense and defense?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Yes, no.

Zonk

12:25

Is De Jon Watson's departure from AZ a harbinger of more shoes dropping in that front office? Did LaRussa seal his fate with that unnecessary contribution to the Kaepernick-flag thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

It seems logical that La Russa and Stewart are toast, but Arizona is great at defying logic.

Fire Kevin Cash

12:26

Kevin Kiermaier denied a grand slam without making a catch--he still saved three runs, but didn't get an out and added a baserunner at first. Does this show up in defensive metrics, and how? (Related: does Canseco get knocked for the home run off the noggin?)

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't believe so.

Jedidiah

12:27

Are you buying shares of Kennys Vargas for 2017?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Depends how cheap they're trading at. Remember, he wasn't actually good at AAA this year.

Alex

12:29

Patrick Weigel has been the unsung prospect to come out of the dominant Rome Braves staff. Do you see him being a top 100 prospect soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Could be. He's got the fastball and his secondary stuff is improving, especially that hard slurvey thing he throws.

Alex

12:29

Ender Inciarte is quietly on pace to break the Braves second half hits record. Do you think the braves hold onto him or move him for someone like Quintana or Archer?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Depends on offers. If you can get someone like that, you move him.

Leif Erikson

12:30

When the baseball season is over, I'm moving to where ever you live Dan, and we are going to practice our knuckleballs until we get signed to a minor league deal. After signing we will manipulate ZiPS to make us look awesome in hopes Tony LaRussa will see the ZiPS projections and think they are our actual stats and throw a couple million $$ our way. Are you in?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I don't think La Russa looks at ZiPS.

Hank

12:30

Markakis sure is looking a whole lot better. Not sure if you knew, he had a dreadful 2 weeks early in season, when you minus that 15 games or so, he's a 116 OPS+ play with a 780 OPS.

Connecting…

Sirras

3:48

Who ultimately won the presidential brawl?

Bork

3:54

If Justin Smoak and JP Arencibia took turn pitching to each other who would strike the other one out more?

4:09

What do you think about Hanley Ramirez's hotstreak and how it can affect the postseason and the postseason ace?

Outta my way, Gyorkass

4:10

Regarding the AJ Preller suspension - how much does this impede the Padres' ability to make deals moving forward? Do they miss out on opportunities to improve long term because other GMs don't trust Preller, or are their valuable players going to be pursued no matter what, and GMs will consider dealing with him just a cost of doing business?

Bork

4:13

DAN ARE YOU OKAY

Matt Damon

4:25

MATT. DAMON.

Bork

4:53

Sabathia for HOF.

4:00

ZIPS update on Gary Sanchez?

Jones

4:01

Should Atlanta look to trade Markakis this offseason and insert Mallex in CF and moving Ender to RF?

Erik

4:02

Who is more impressive compared to their peers, Theo Epstein or Joe Masson?

EvanC

4:10

Is a generic, barely-jumping home run robbery that can be made by 90% of outfielders (for example) inherently more valuable than a diving catch to rob a single that only 10% of outfielders would have made?

Andrew

4:15

Given all their injuries, how do you (dis)like the Mets' chances against the Cubs if they win the WC game?

Ronnie

4:16

Looks like no one on the Angels is going to end up with 10 saves this year. I know it's a junk stat & all that but it's probably been awhile since that happened, or no?

Jay Bruce

4:16

Jay Bruce toast? Or does a good schedule allow him to turn it around this week?

Graves

4:17

It is 2016 and water falling from the sky is impeding baseball games. Why can't MLB mandate all teams to build a retractable roof? If nothing else, shouldn't all new stadiums be required to have a roof?

mtsw

4:18

I'm about to win a fantasy league because I'm apparently the only one who knows about the "stream starting pitchers who get two starts that week" thing. Should I feel bad about winning largely through tactical acumen rather than player evaluation?

Steve

4:24

Chapman contract prediction?

here goes nothing

4:25

what do you make of jharel cotton? are the Baby A's in better shape with pitching or hitting?

David

4:25

Hanley. Hanley. Hanley. Please discuss.

Devin

4:29

What would it cost Atlanta to acquire Chris Archer? Albies, Touki, and Sims enough?

Erik

4:30

Is what really is the main cause of pitcher injuries a solvable question? And if a team solves it, should they be required to tell everyone, for the sake of pitchers everywhere? Or can they keep it a secret for a competitive advantage?

Nick

4:31

Tim Tebow has a better swing than Mike Trout. Who do you think has a better MLB career?

Nick

4:31

Could Tim Tebow be good

Disco Dan

4:31

on the last day of the season, Arod in his final at bats hit a grand slam and then a 3 run home run in the same inning, giving him exactly 30 home runs and 100 rbis on the season to keep that streak alive. Always enjoyed that fact

Tim

4:31

Can you explain the leverage component of reliever WAR?

Erik

4:32

What is the maximum WAR a "good clubhouse guy" could reasonably provide just by being a good guy?

Jeremy

4:32

When do you see Amed Rosario making his debut for the Mets?

Nick

4:33

The Orioles have hit Rick Porcello pretty well this season. How do you think Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo will do tonight?

Kiner's Disembodied Hands

4:33

How hard do you have to squint to see Kang putting up a 5+ WAR season or two if healthy? Could he hit 40 home runs?

Nick

4:33

Who do you think wins the World Series?

Scott

4:33

What's your theory on the high home run numbers this year?

Steve

4:33

You add, subtract, and multiply. You do not plus, minus or times. Good grief.

Nick

4:34

Brewers have a young roster with a few vets. How do you like their future?

Hank

4:34

Do you think Atlanta would be better off with Markakis on the bench and Ender in RF and Mallex in CF in 2017?

CamdenWarehouse

4:34

Who has more at bats for the Mets going forward: David Wright or Tim Tebow?

Nick

4:35

Markakis is a fucking lord Alex you fucking dumb sack of shit

Zach

4:36

Tebow or Trout

@RationalMLBFan

4:36

I was glad that Ichiro got hit 3000th (and counting!) hit, but was this joy worth watching him be barely playable for the past 5 years? I'm not sure.

Zach

4:36

Kershaw or Bumgarner tonight?

4:37

Do you speak Polish?

Jeet

4:37

Drop Desmond for Drury or Sean Rodriguez?

Fidel Castro

4:37

Why isn't Lourdes Gurriel Jr being rather higher? Teams saw him as the real prize. What changed?

Corey Taylor, Slipknot

4:38

Favorite post-hype sleepers 2017

Slamboni

4:38

Rangers only good starting pitchers suddenly look gassed and not great, are they doomed?

Jeet

4:38

Why is no one talking about Tom Murphy from the Rockies? Young power bat in the middle of a loaded lineup what is not to like for 2017?

nick markakis

4:39

how come you never talk about me

DyNASTY Joe

4:39

Is it stupid to do dynasty trades the day when the window opens (after the last day of fantasy playoffs for my league)

Tony

4:39

Should Cubs fans be worried about the offense? Their team OPS is .681 in September which is 52 points lower than their next lowest month and 87 points lower than their season average? I know teams slump and surge, but I fear that with the foot going off the gas by clinching early, we won't see the struggling hitters sharp again by October 7th.

Scott

4:40

Speaking of wasting prime years, is there a way to get Mike Trout to a contender?

Dave

4:40

Could you give us an example for what kind of package the Braves could get for Freeman? I'm truly interested, thanks!

Ceej

4:41

Do you view Baez's offensive outlook any differently than you did a year ago? The k's are down but I dunno how much he's actually improved.

CamdenWarehouse

4:41

Who would be the potential landing spots if Freeman were made available both in terms of need and ability to put up a package the Braves would accept?

Dave

4:41

Markakis to the mets for Tim Tebow! Who says no?

HugoZ

4:42

Markakis isn't "overpaid" by Fangraphs' own standard.

Billy Mumphrey

4:42

Why so many ATL q's???

Erik

4:42

If Bryce Harper plays the rest of his contract at his current level of performance, what is he worth in free agency?

Logan

4:42

What type of package would the Braves have to surrender to land Longoria?

Southi

4:42

Seems like you answer a lot of Braves questions. Do you think that is more a factor of the team having so many question marks? Or is it just because the fan base of the Braves likes to bug you a lot and you like to reciprocate by dashing their hopes?

Youngman

4:43

Markakis seems like a solid value get this offseason during a weak FA class, could Atlanta maybe save some cash and net a notable back of top 30 pack type prospect?

Southi

4:44

Since you deem it prudent to seek young talent for the better Braves players like Inciarte or Freeman, what type of package would you personally deem acceptable (and fair) to both teams involved?

Erik

4:44

Do you think the Braves/Cubs can work out a deal for Soler? What would it cost ATL

The

4:44

Which one of the bigger surprises this season do you think is legit?

scremsha

4:46

do you think it'd make sense for the Red Sox to trade for Freddie Freeman and stick Hanley at DH? That'd make up for a big chunk of David Ortiz' lost offense and vastly improve 1B defense.

Sally

4:46

Why in the world each week do you bash Markakis? And also why do you want the Braves to trade every good player they have! Teams have to have players people wanna watch!

Johnny5Alive

4:46

with god (tebow) on their side, shouldnt the mets be world series favorites?

Ronald McDonald

4:48

If Trout doesn't win MVP this year is this the biggest travesty of all the years he should have won but didn't?

i hate my manager

4:48

is there really more hope with heyward?

Wayne

4:48

Ender, Mallex, Kemp, and Markakis.. Which two should the Braves rid themselves of?

Jeb

4:49

What did you study in college?

Jonny

4:49

Braves fans are silly... Markakis sucks... Teheran is a true #4 type starter, Freeman is not this good... Tell em Dan... End this ridiculousness.

Matt

4:49

Hi Dan. Sorry I'm late - did you miss me?

Jim Lonborg

4:50

In the spirit of The Other Final, who would have the edge in a 7-game series between the Braves and Twins?

Avi

4:50

Are the Mets going to be able to do a 4 man rotation of Syndergaard, Colon, Matz?, Someone else? Can't see that kind of quartet holding up past the first two in the post season.

Sonny

4:51

Any insight into why the Twins are taking so long to fill their FO vacancy? Organizational decision to keep it transitional through the regular season or difficult ownership/market? All the above?

Jim Lonborg

4:52

Is Hanley's contract starting to look decent yet? The RS don't care if he's streaky as long as the streaks are timed to be helpful, as at present, right?

Sonny

4:53

Wil Myers 80 Grade in box bat twirl skill

Old professor

4:53

Cc with 3,000 k's and Bumgarners post season records should merit HOF over Greinke

Vere

4:53

When do you expect Albies to join Swanson up the middle? Or should they ponder packaging him with Ender and going after a frontline starter or big bat?

A cat

4:56

Should the Red Sox be given the opportunity to redo the compensation for Pomeranz, either receiving a prospect or exchanging lesser prospects for Espinoza? There was an article by a sports attorney on SI who even threw out the idea of making SD take Sandoval or Craig as a penalty.

pirates hurdles

4:56

RE lopsided matchup - Chad Kuhl vs Kershaw and Kuhl won

Hank

4:57

Getting back to Freddie Freeman, who's currently a MVP candidate and arguably the best 1st baseman in baseball. Isn't it a solid argument to keep him and build around him? 2018 wild card seems realistic right? Or have I lost my mind?

Maverik312

4:57

Earlier you said Vargas didn't have a good year in AAA this year. He had low 20 K%, 16% BB rate, and 15 HR in 400 PA -- scaling to 21/22 over 600 PA. Are you just dinging him for the lack of HR? Looks like a pretty good season to me

Keith

4:58

Braves sign Wieters and Nova, and trade for Archer. How much would that move the needle?

Jim Lonborg

4:58

Randy's body with Bartolo's face might actually be a decent looking guy. Bartolo's body with Randy's face would be truly hideous.

Pauly

4:59

Should Coppy bring De Jon Watson aboard his crew?

Snakes

4:59

Aaron Blair and Lucas Sims for Shelby Miller, who says no?

Lenny

5:01

You sure do pick on Nick Markakis alot, seems like a pretty solid player to me.

Rotten Cotton

5:01

Start Cotton vs. HOU?

Matt

5:02

True or False: Brian McCann plays for the NYY in 2017

Payne

5:02

Silly Atlanta fans... Drop the hammer Dan!

Mike

5:03

I was thinking the Braves could pay 90% of Markakis remaining contract and actually net a ok prospect.

Derek

5:03

If nominated for the Supreme Court, how do you see Markakis interpreting the commerce clause?

Germans Running SNPP

5:03

If you were Brian Cashman, would you consider flipping Greg Bird to improve SP (and what could you even get), then throwing $Texas at Edwin? How else could you improve the rotation given the SP FA market is...inelegant.

Logan

5:03

Matt Wisler and Ronald Acuna for Jason Hammel?

Alex

5:04

Whose more valuable: Nick Markakis or Mike Trout without his left pinky finger AND toe?

James

5:04

Markakis + 20 million + Weigel for Jorge Soler?

CamdenWarehouse

5:05

Jason Hammel, the other Cubs pitcher picked off the garbage pil...I mean, who came from Baltimore

Bobby

5:05

Do you think the Braves should bring Ryan Howard aboard, much needed power off the bench and also gives them an option just incase they do decide to trade Freeman?

Gary

5:05

Is it fair to call Trout an OBP guy? He's pretty much Votto with more speed and defense at this point.

Doug

5:06

How about this. Freeman to LA for AGon and DeLeon?

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