JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/16

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Dan Szymborski

12:30

Everyone looks better when you subtract their worst performances.

12:31

He also looks worse than his current OPS+ if you minus the *last* 15 games or so.

groucho

12:32

Who do you like in the NL wild card race?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Mets/Cardinals

Southi

12:33

Do you think that this off season the Braves might seek to flip Markakis for a under performing arm on a short contract such as Liriano, Jimenez, or someone else who might bounce back with a change of scenery and the reboot of another season? Not necessarily a one on one swap but as the meat of the deal? Who would you think would be the most likely candidate if it is possible? Obviously it isn't a sexy type move but one that the Braves might at least think about.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

More plausible than the dreams of trading Markakis for prospects people ask me about every week it seems. Some kind of trade like this is at least a possibility.

WHY DO YOU GUYS ASK SO MANY NICK MARKAKIS QUESTIONS?

groucho

12:33

Which scenario is more likely: Tebow makes it to the majors, or makes a return to the NFL?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

MLB actually. It's a long shot, of course, but he'll at least get a chance to show competence in the minors.

I think the NFL ship has sailed

Zonk

12:34

What NL rebuilding teams, in your opinion, had the best overall seasons in terms of getting back to respectability? Can you rank: PHI, ATL, MIL, CIN, SD.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

PHI, MIL, ATL, SD, CIN

12:35

Though its tricky - are we talking about just the days of the season?

In that case we'd move up SD and probably MIL

Alex

12:35

Don't you think the Braves would get more bang for their buck if they employed 500k randoms at corner outfield over Markakis and Kemp, they'd likely get more value, considering Nick/Kemp are pretty worthless at their salaries.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Yeah, rebuilding teams shouldn't care about high floors, only high ceilings.

Zonk

12:35

Even though they are a losing team, in terms of moving forward the Brewers had a very good year, didn't they?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Well, yeah

shaemoose

12:35

I'm sure you get this a lot, but how do you pronounce your name?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

zim-BORE-skee, which is actually wrong. Polish stuff is tricky for someone who doens't speak the language.

Q-Ball

12:36

Did scouts miss on Javy Baez's defense? The bat hasn't been as good as advertised, but his defense is really terrific, and coming up everyone said he would be forced to 3B. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It's way premature.

Raindog

12:36

As an O's fan I'm not sure whether I'm more horrified at the prospect of extending Wieters or having Wieters leave. What's a fair balance of my fears? 3 yrs, $40M?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I have no idea what's worse.

I think the best scenario would be Wieters turns down a QO

12:38

Gary Sanchez leads all AL rookies in fWAR. Should he really need ~200 additional replacement level PAs earlier in the season to win the award?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Not necessarily, but fWAR is going to be lower on Fulmer than any voter, I expect.

12:39

And Fulmer has a sizable lead in bWAR

Kevin

12:39

Do you think the Braves should trade MVP candidate Freddie Freeman this offseason? They are wasting his best years away. They could get a monster package for him to take back the farm system trophy.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Yes

Eric

12:40

Matt Kemp has a 859 OPS as a Brave, move is looking very successful so far. Not too many big bats like him in baseball.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

He's been balancing out his better-than-customary-Kemp-offense by somehow-worse-than-customary-Kemp-defense.

Paulie Walnuts

12:42

Are you a Ryon Healy believer yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Not the BA

Erik

12:42

How much will Preller's actions affect other teams trying to trade with the Padres?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Extra care, I'm sure

12:42

Do you find it strange that a lot of guys with unexceptional power (Galvis, Miller, etc.) are suddenly doubling and tripling their HR totals, while the traditional heavy hitters (Trout, Harper, etc.) aren't experiencing a significant bump?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

You kinda saw this in 1987

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:42

New (old) Brewers callup Tim Dillard - 80 Social Media presence?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

He's very good on Twitter,

Connecting…

Sirras

3:48

Who ultimately won the presidential brawl?

Bork

3:54

If Justin Smoak and JP Arencibia took turn pitching to each other who would strike the other one out more?

4:09

What do you think about Hanley Ramirez's hotstreak and how it can affect the postseason and the postseason ace?

Outta my way, Gyorkass

4:10

Regarding the AJ Preller suspension - how much does this impede the Padres' ability to make deals moving forward? Do they miss out on opportunities to improve long term because other GMs don't trust Preller, or are their valuable players going to be pursued no matter what, and GMs will consider dealing with him just a cost of doing business?

Bork

4:13

DAN ARE YOU OKAY

Matt Damon

4:25

MATT. DAMON.

Bork

4:53

Sabathia for HOF.

4:00

ZIPS update on Gary Sanchez?

Jones

4:01

Should Atlanta look to trade Markakis this offseason and insert Mallex in CF and moving Ender to RF?

Erik

4:02

Who is more impressive compared to their peers, Theo Epstein or Joe Masson?

EvanC

4:10

Is a generic, barely-jumping home run robbery that can be made by 90% of outfielders (for example) inherently more valuable than a diving catch to rob a single that only 10% of outfielders would have made?

Andrew

4:15

Given all their injuries, how do you (dis)like the Mets' chances against the Cubs if they win the WC game?

Ronnie

4:16

Looks like no one on the Angels is going to end up with 10 saves this year. I know it's a junk stat & all that but it's probably been awhile since that happened, or no?

Jay Bruce

4:16

Jay Bruce toast? Or does a good schedule allow him to turn it around this week?

Graves

4:17

It is 2016 and water falling from the sky is impeding baseball games. Why can't MLB mandate all teams to build a retractable roof? If nothing else, shouldn't all new stadiums be required to have a roof?

mtsw

4:18

I'm about to win a fantasy league because I'm apparently the only one who knows about the "stream starting pitchers who get two starts that week" thing. Should I feel bad about winning largely through tactical acumen rather than player evaluation?

Steve

4:24

Chapman contract prediction?

here goes nothing

4:25

what do you make of jharel cotton? are the Baby A's in better shape with pitching or hitting?

David

4:25

Hanley. Hanley. Hanley. Please discuss.

Devin

4:29

What would it cost Atlanta to acquire Chris Archer? Albies, Touki, and Sims enough?

Erik

4:30

Is what really is the main cause of pitcher injuries a solvable question? And if a team solves it, should they be required to tell everyone, for the sake of pitchers everywhere? Or can they keep it a secret for a competitive advantage?

Nick

4:31

Tim Tebow has a better swing than Mike Trout. Who do you think has a better MLB career?

Nick

4:31

Could Tim Tebow be good

Disco Dan

4:31

on the last day of the season, Arod in his final at bats hit a grand slam and then a 3 run home run in the same inning, giving him exactly 30 home runs and 100 rbis on the season to keep that streak alive. Always enjoyed that fact

Tim

4:31

Can you explain the leverage component of reliever WAR?

Erik

4:32

What is the maximum WAR a "good clubhouse guy" could reasonably provide just by being a good guy?

Jeremy

4:32

When do you see Amed Rosario making his debut for the Mets?

Nick

4:33

The Orioles have hit Rick Porcello pretty well this season. How do you think Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo will do tonight?

Kiner's Disembodied Hands

4:33

How hard do you have to squint to see Kang putting up a 5+ WAR season or two if healthy? Could he hit 40 home runs?

Nick

4:33

Who do you think wins the World Series?

Scott

4:33

What's your theory on the high home run numbers this year?

Steve

4:33

You add, subtract, and multiply. You do not plus, minus or times. Good grief.

Nick

4:34

Brewers have a young roster with a few vets. How do you like their future?

Hank

4:34

Do you think Atlanta would be better off with Markakis on the bench and Ender in RF and Mallex in CF in 2017?

CamdenWarehouse

4:34

Who has more at bats for the Mets going forward: David Wright or Tim Tebow?

Nick

4:35

Markakis is a fucking lord Alex you fucking dumb sack of shit

Zach

4:36

Tebow or Trout

@RationalMLBFan

4:36

I was glad that Ichiro got hit 3000th (and counting!) hit, but was this joy worth watching him be barely playable for the past 5 years? I'm not sure.

Zach

4:36

Kershaw or Bumgarner tonight?

4:37

Do you speak Polish?

Jeet

4:37

Drop Desmond for Drury or Sean Rodriguez?

Fidel Castro

4:37

Why isn't Lourdes Gurriel Jr being rather higher? Teams saw him as the real prize. What changed?

Corey Taylor, Slipknot

4:38

Favorite post-hype sleepers 2017

Slamboni

4:38

Rangers only good starting pitchers suddenly look gassed and not great, are they doomed?

Jeet

4:38

Why is no one talking about Tom Murphy from the Rockies? Young power bat in the middle of a loaded lineup what is not to like for 2017?

nick markakis

4:39

how come you never talk about me

DyNASTY Joe

4:39

Is it stupid to do dynasty trades the day when the window opens (after the last day of fantasy playoffs for my league)

Tony

4:39

Should Cubs fans be worried about the offense? Their team OPS is .681 in September which is 52 points lower than their next lowest month and 87 points lower than their season average? I know teams slump and surge, but I fear that with the foot going off the gas by clinching early, we won't see the struggling hitters sharp again by October 7th.

Scott

4:40

Speaking of wasting prime years, is there a way to get Mike Trout to a contender?

Dave

4:40

Could you give us an example for what kind of package the Braves could get for Freeman? I'm truly interested, thanks!

Ceej

4:41

Do you view Baez's offensive outlook any differently than you did a year ago? The k's are down but I dunno how much he's actually improved.

CamdenWarehouse

4:41

Who would be the potential landing spots if Freeman were made available both in terms of need and ability to put up a package the Braves would accept?

Dave

4:41

Markakis to the mets for Tim Tebow! Who says no?

HugoZ

4:42

Markakis isn't "overpaid" by Fangraphs' own standard.

Billy Mumphrey

4:42

Why so many ATL q's???

Erik

4:42

If Bryce Harper plays the rest of his contract at his current level of performance, what is he worth in free agency?

Logan

4:42

What type of package would the Braves have to surrender to land Longoria?

Southi

4:42

Seems like you answer a lot of Braves questions. Do you think that is more a factor of the team having so many question marks? Or is it just because the fan base of the Braves likes to bug you a lot and you like to reciprocate by dashing their hopes?

Youngman

4:43

Markakis seems like a solid value get this offseason during a weak FA class, could Atlanta maybe save some cash and net a notable back of top 30 pack type prospect?

Southi

4:44

Since you deem it prudent to seek young talent for the better Braves players like Inciarte or Freeman, what type of package would you personally deem acceptable (and fair) to both teams involved?

Erik

4:44

Do you think the Braves/Cubs can work out a deal for Soler? What would it cost ATL

The

4:44

Which one of the bigger surprises this season do you think is legit?

scremsha

4:46

do you think it'd make sense for the Red Sox to trade for Freddie Freeman and stick Hanley at DH? That'd make up for a big chunk of David Ortiz' lost offense and vastly improve 1B defense.

Sally

4:46

Why in the world each week do you bash Markakis? And also why do you want the Braves to trade every good player they have! Teams have to have players people wanna watch!

Johnny5Alive

4:46

with god (tebow) on their side, shouldnt the mets be world series favorites?

Ronald McDonald

4:48

If Trout doesn't win MVP this year is this the biggest travesty of all the years he should have won but didn't?

i hate my manager

4:48

is there really more hope with heyward?

Wayne

4:48

Ender, Mallex, Kemp, and Markakis.. Which two should the Braves rid themselves of?

Jeb

4:49

What did you study in college?

Jonny

4:49

Braves fans are silly... Markakis sucks... Teheran is a true #4 type starter, Freeman is not this good... Tell em Dan... End this ridiculousness.

Matt

4:49

Hi Dan. Sorry I'm late - did you miss me?

Jim Lonborg

4:50

In the spirit of The Other Final, who would have the edge in a 7-game series between the Braves and Twins?

Avi

4:50

Are the Mets going to be able to do a 4 man rotation of Syndergaard, Colon, Matz?, Someone else? Can't see that kind of quartet holding up past the first two in the post season.

Sonny

4:51

Any insight into why the Twins are taking so long to fill their FO vacancy? Organizational decision to keep it transitional through the regular season or difficult ownership/market? All the above?

Jim Lonborg

4:52

Is Hanley's contract starting to look decent yet? The RS don't care if he's streaky as long as the streaks are timed to be helpful, as at present, right?

Sonny

4:53

Wil Myers 80 Grade in box bat twirl skill

Old professor

4:53

Cc with 3,000 k's and Bumgarners post season records should merit HOF over Greinke

Vere

4:53

When do you expect Albies to join Swanson up the middle? Or should they ponder packaging him with Ender and going after a frontline starter or big bat?

A cat

4:56

Should the Red Sox be given the opportunity to redo the compensation for Pomeranz, either receiving a prospect or exchanging lesser prospects for Espinoza? There was an article by a sports attorney on SI who even threw out the idea of making SD take Sandoval or Craig as a penalty.

pirates hurdles

4:56

RE lopsided matchup - Chad Kuhl vs Kershaw and Kuhl won

Hank

4:57

Getting back to Freddie Freeman, who's currently a MVP candidate and arguably the best 1st baseman in baseball. Isn't it a solid argument to keep him and build around him? 2018 wild card seems realistic right? Or have I lost my mind?

Maverik312

4:57

Earlier you said Vargas didn't have a good year in AAA this year. He had low 20 K%, 16% BB rate, and 15 HR in 400 PA -- scaling to 21/22 over 600 PA. Are you just dinging him for the lack of HR? Looks like a pretty good season to me

Keith

4:58

Braves sign Wieters and Nova, and trade for Archer. How much would that move the needle?

Jim Lonborg

4:58

Randy's body with Bartolo's face might actually be a decent looking guy. Bartolo's body with Randy's face would be truly hideous.

Pauly

4:59

Should Coppy bring De Jon Watson aboard his crew?

Snakes

4:59

Aaron Blair and Lucas Sims for Shelby Miller, who says no?

Lenny

5:01

You sure do pick on Nick Markakis alot, seems like a pretty solid player to me.

Rotten Cotton

5:01

Start Cotton vs. HOU?

Matt

5:02

True or False: Brian McCann plays for the NYY in 2017

Payne

5:02

Silly Atlanta fans... Drop the hammer Dan!

Mike

5:03

I was thinking the Braves could pay 90% of Markakis remaining contract and actually net a ok prospect.

Derek

5:03

If nominated for the Supreme Court, how do you see Markakis interpreting the commerce clause?

Germans Running SNPP

5:03

If you were Brian Cashman, would you consider flipping Greg Bird to improve SP (and what could you even get), then throwing $Texas at Edwin? How else could you improve the rotation given the SP FA market is...inelegant.

Logan

5:03

Matt Wisler and Ronald Acuna for Jason Hammel?

Alex

5:04

Whose more valuable: Nick Markakis or Mike Trout without his left pinky finger AND toe?

James

5:04

Markakis + 20 million + Weigel for Jorge Soler?

CamdenWarehouse

5:05

Jason Hammel, the other Cubs pitcher picked off the garbage pil...I mean, who came from Baltimore

Bobby

5:05

Do you think the Braves should bring Ryan Howard aboard, much needed power off the bench and also gives them an option just incase they do decide to trade Freeman?

Gary

5:05

Is it fair to call Trout an OBP guy? He's pretty much Votto with more speed and defense at this point.

Doug

5:06

How about this. Freeman to LA for AGon and DeLeon?

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