JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

Chat Time Great Action Copter Passion Justice GO!!!!!

Champdo

12:01

Chances Parker Meadows plays this well next season?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Depends on what you call well!

12:02

But ZiPS does have him up to 2.3 WAR in like 540 PA

That he *appears* to be at least a mild positive in CF really makes him playable

Guest

12:02

Who is the biggest sleeper prospect for 2025 season based on ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

If you want to go REALLY deep, ZiPS is increasingly seeing Shay Whitcomb interesting, though it's hard to call him a prospect

12:04

One prospect that has moved up quite a bit is Joe Mack

12:05

Jared Serna's projections have moved quite a bit

Eric

12:05

Hi Dan! Congrats on dropping 51 lbs. I have dropped around 30 lbs over the past year and I am wondering if you feel like you have lost lean muscle mass from eating every other day. I am doing intermittent fasting myself and am trying to find the optimal interval that maximizes weight loss and minimizes muscle loss.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Considering how much of my weight is from drinking too much beer and sitting around, I'm not sure I had that much muscle mass to lose

But I don't feel any weaker. And still have quite a bit more to lose

rockie road

12:06

why not FIP- for WAR instead of Fip? Seems like homer park factors are so varied that would make more sense.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I know ZiPS has individual FIP park factors

It might just be a case of stat overload. We have so much already

Jason N

12:07

What does an Arraez extension look like? This dude fascinates me - he’s fun, he’s an all-star, about to break some batting title records, and really overrated. I’d like to see the Padres extend him but at something closer to his real value vs. a reputation-enhanced value.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I guess I can open up that one since I don't have any specific plans to write a piece on him in the near future

RAGBRAI

12:08

List a few over performers and a few under performers from your projections from last spring.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I did a whole piece on the ZiPS movers!

12:09

Those are inevitably people overperforming/underperforming

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-hitters/...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-pitchers...

12:10

I might do another update after the season, but I'm not sure about it

since I already did one in July, and I don't like to repeat some of these standard "tentpole" pieces as it feels kind of lazy

12:11

and really, for something like just seeing who *did* overperform/underperform, you can still download preseason projections and compare pretty easily, so it seems a bit lazy to do an article for something that someone can do in five minutes

Or, I coudl simply be misreading what people want to read from me, which is certainly possible

guy

12:12

what does zips say about 2027 walcott vs de vries?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

At least for the moment, it's going to prefer Walcott as he's slightly farther ahead in the "queue"

Nate

12:13

Did Michael Massey curse the Royals by hitting that bird during batting practice

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Didn't the Diamondbacks win the WS the year Randy Johnson killed the bird?

12:14

four teams for three wild card spots in the nl your gut feeling on who makes it?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Gut I think it's Mets

Well-Beered Englishman

12:15

White Sox tracker. They need to go:
8-1 to be better than the 03 Tigers
5-4 or worse to have the most losses since the Cleveland Spiders
2-7 or worse to have the worst win % since the Cleveland Spiders
1-8 to reach 125

Zach

12:15

What happened to Nolan Jones this year? Not that I thought he was going to be a star or a foundational piece, but after last year, it seemed reasonable to think he'd be a solid player to flip to some contender down the road.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I don't...know? His barrels just disappeared. It's almost like there's a mechanical issue

Like 2023 was basically consistent with how he was hitting

Guest

12:15

Who’s a good long term player comp for Jackson Merrill?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Well, since I have ZiPS open now, his top comp in ZiPS is not good (Rich Coggins) but it gets way better from there, with the next comps being Willie Davis, Vlad Sr., Jesus Alou, Reggie Smith, Tommy Davis, Vada Pinson, Grady Sizemore

12:20

ZiPS only suggests 4/70 for Arraez covering next year and first three free agency

His 2B defensive projection is -36 runs over the four years, which really hurts