JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/24

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dcejoseph

12:22

If you were the Padres, what would be your preferred first round matchup?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Arizona maybe? Arizona's weakness, front-end SP, is magnified a bit in a postseason format

12:23

and rolling Cease, King, Darvish may give them best chance to stop Arizona offense

The person who asks the lunch question

12:23

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

This is not an eating Thursday

12:23

It seems like there's a huge benefit to (1) getting to choose any reliever to face the top of the opposing team's lineup and (2) getting to choose the first pocket of opposing hitters faced by your own starting pitcher/bulk guy. If I was a manager, I feel like I'd want to use openers for any of my below average starting pitchers (e.g., my 4/5 starters), provided I have enough leverage arms in the pen to cover both the beginning and end of games. Is there a reason other than protecting SP egos why more teams don't do this?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Remember, managing is a LOT of managing people

12:24

the question is how much of an advantage do you really get

Baseball isn't really a game where you can carve out massive tactical edges, so you have to ask yourself if the juice is worth the squeeze

AJ Hinch

12:24

Indians and Twins used Clase and Duran in the 9th last night in a tie game. Think there’s any merit to teams saving their highest leverage guy for the tenth?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I personally take the high-leverage situation that exists now over one that may exist later

there's less margin for error with a one-run lead than a tie game

Lavendar

12:26

is atlantas Marcell Ozuna option decision really so obvious? Jorge Soler is guaranteed another 2yrs at the same $16m Ozuna is. hes awful in the OF, but probably better than Ozuna, and Acuñas probably gonna need dh time, right? i dont wanna lose Ozunas bat, but that Soler trade isnt looking good right now, and im not sure how were gonna make this work.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think you're overthinking it

withj the $1m buyout, it's basically a 1/15 decision, and that's an easy one

Guest

12:28

Who's the most underrated player on the nationals?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Jacob Young maybe?

Alan Holst

12:28

Hi. Thanks for the chat! Great site. I especially like your additional plus stats. I do have 3 issues I would like to address. (1) Am I missing how to do it, or why don't you have leaderboards that combibne pitching and batting? (2) I think any Defensive WAR is fuzzy, but fWAR for catchers is definitely too speculative. Catcher defense is extremely important, but the quantifiable metrics are insufficient to justify the impact it has on player ratings. (3) I understand the need for advertising, but the pop ups at FanGraphs are not just annoying, they often make it hard to navigate. Thanks again for the chat, and your fabulous site.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I just don't think we've had a lot of demand for combined pitching/batting leaderboards

fWAR for catchers may be speculative, but it's speculative in that there may be aspects missing, not that there's anything wrong with the current stuff

and you basically have your best model of defense or you're simply not giving any value statistic to catchers

12:30

as for advertising, that's an ongoing issue, which is why we're moving to a metered paywall. we want to get away from the horrible ads

Austin Wells

12:30

Am I a real RoY candidate or just a product of Yankees media?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

eral

real

Josh

12:31

Tiger or Twins to make playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Tigers

Matan

12:31

Hey Dan. In the same vein of under-performers, are the White Sox (so far) the most unlikely underperforming team in ZiPS history?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

if they finish at 40, that's a 23 game underperformance

12:33

There's a -30 (2018 Orioles)

A -24 (2017 Giants)

and another -23 (2005 Dodgers)

Mark M

12:35

What should the Cubs do on the infield next year with Matt Shaw needing a place to play?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I suspect the Cubs trade Hoerner for a need this offseason and I'm not sure that's not the best idea

Especially as it seems like Bellinger won't opt out

12:37

if Bellinger opted out, you could see one of the infielders end up in a corner, but him staying makes that tricky

Guest

12:37

Michael Toglia break out next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I would say no

12:38

He's not that young and his résumé is weak

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