JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:56

Aging doesn't really fit into neat barrels

Though that would be a *general* statement that isn't bad

bBut there's nothing like X player will age well and Y player will not

It's like those three month weather projections

12:57

where there might be something atmospheric and X state has a 60% chance of exceeding their normal temeprature or precipitation by X

Archer

12:57

Colt Keith is matching his projection for this year, but arrived there in a much different way than I would have expected (average bat, above average defense)

Dan Szymborski

12:57

He fixed his slow start nicely

AltuveBot3k

12:58

Looks like Altuve will fall short of 200 hits this year, but a pretty decent campaign on that front. Can you update odds of his getting to 3k?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

44% right now

Gasblaster

12:58

So, what game have you been playing?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Just finished Trails Through Daybreak II: Crimson Sin with the fan translation

and this is peak MLB the Show season for me

The former game wasn't super well-received as it didn't really push the underlying plot too far, but I enjoyed the game's plot in and of itself

Fordy

12:59

Lindor is locked for the HOF. But how likely Correa is to make the HOF.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I think he gets there

Doug

1:00

Does Ha Seong Kim get a qualifying offer? Does he reject it?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Yes and Yes

Sirras

1:00

Who is a player you enjoy watching because of aesthetics, not because of stats (regardless of whether or not they have good stats)?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Arraez

Kingston

1:00

Hey dan Whose the best jake in mlb?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Wait, is this a repeat or did I answer a question about Jakes without posting the question?

Because if I didn't post anything, that must have sounded batshit insane

Guest

1:01

I avoided membership for a while in part because the ads were so obtrusive and unnavigable that it almost felt like blackmail

Dan Szymborski

1:01

At the end of the day, ads have gotten more annoying across the spectrum

1:02

and we either have to make money from ads, make money from subscriptions, or not be a going concern

Guardcore Clevelander

1:02

Dan, how are the cats?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

They are fine

mmddyyyy

1:02

do you travel for work and present at conferences?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I travel at times, though I wouldn't call it a BIG part of my job

I'll do panels, but I'm not a big presentation guy

laughingstock

1:04

What, uh, is ZIPS? Like the underlying model. Is it one big neural net? Or a bunch of models glued together?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

At its core, it's a nonparametric model with a whole bunch of other models glued on awkwardly

1:05

You could call the whole thing an exercise in supervised machine learning

Guest

1:05

Apologies if you've answered this in previous chats- how much has Vientos improved his long-term outlook per ZiPS? If I remember correctly, ZiPS was more bullish than others to begin with.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I don't think I've had any Vientos Qs lately

Hang on, I didn't close ZiPS this time

1:06

10.0 five-year WAR to start the season, up to 13.4 now

Smokin' Jim Leyland

1:06

Dan - I am surprised more people aren't talking about the Tigers. They did the thing everyone always says teams out of contention should do and promoted all their prospects and stopped playing their "steady veterans"...and lo and behold, they are in the thick of the Wild Card race. The way Hinch and Fetter have managed the pitching staff, turning non-descript AAA arms like Brant Hurter into effective pitchers racking up the outs...10/10, no notes!

Dan Szymborski

1:07

It's kinda funny they traded one of their best pitchers and then they surged

Dude

1:07

Not sure if this is your area of expertise but in the last week or so the Yankees have dramatically risen to having the highest world series odds in your playoff predictor.

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