JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/24

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Insert Witty Name Here

12:39

Thoughts on BanananananaBall? Just read the book, it was interesting and seemed Globetrotter-esque.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

My knowledge depth on the Savannah Bananas is not that deep

Sirras

12:39

@Alan Holst - May I recommend becoming a member and enjoying an ad-free experience?

Jonathan

12:40

Out of curiosity, does ZiPS use stuff like EV, LA, spin/movement characteristics, etc. for minor league players in AAA (where the HawkEye data are publicly available)? If you had access to these data for all minor leaguers (or, for example, had free access to TrackMan data for all minor leaguers and could do a slightly outdated version of StatCast), do you think incorporating them for A+ hitters and AA hitters/pitchers would add value to ZiPS' projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

ZiPS does use statcast data for minors and has for a while

There's no stuff aspect in ZiPS right now. Working on my own ZiPS model is a long-term project of mine, and it's nothing I'm comfortable incorporating now

12:41

I don't like to throw things in the model until things are thoroughly tested, and the process of adding things to ZiPS is years

Fordy

12:41

Are there any significant changes in Willy Adames' long-term projections compared to last May?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Dammit, I just closed ZiPS!

I guess I shoudl have left it open

12:42

reopning it

12:43

OK, as of right now (or, though 9/17 more accurately), Adames have a five-year WAR projection of 17.2 WAR. Lemme check May now

12:45

It was 16.0 in May

May 15th run

12:46

and 16.3 at the start of the season

I assume you didn't mean last May as in 2023?

Please Anwser dan

12:48

Best jake in the mlb is it burger?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Among Jakes, I'd take Cronenworth and The over Burger

McCarthy too

probably Irvin

Phil

12:50

How has Ohtani's projection for next year changed with the year he has been having?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

He's gone up like 1.5 WAR in 2025 I think

Ryan S

12:50

As long as we're doing player comps for Jacksons, who are Chourio's top comps at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

dangit guys

12:52

Reggie Smith, Jose Cardenal, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis, Rocco Baldelli, Claudell Washington, Paul Blair, Vada PInson, Rick Manning, Amos Otis, Ellis Valentine, Bobby Tolan, Ken Griffey Jr, Grady Zizemore

zizemore?

trav

12:52

On the Whitcomb sleeper comment, how does he get every day playing time? only if they let Bregman walk? he does look like he has good plate discipline and batted ball quality.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

He could be a utility guy and sneak a bunch of AB that way

Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood

12:53

Did the O's sneak a "backsies" clause in the Trevor Rodgers trade they could activate?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I think he always more of a 2025/2026 acquisition

Fordy

12:53

I mean https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whose-contract-extensions-should-teams-tac...

Dan Szymborski

12:53

didn't I do one of those this year?

Triple Crown

12:54

With ~10 games left and 0.010 points of BA seperating Witt and Judge, is there any chance of a triple crown?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I haven't run it, but I'd guess...15%?

LostatSea

12:54

Hypothetically say the ways we view RV, WAR, performance, etc. are all wrong, where would the 'hole' in our models be (what area of the game/players performance are we under or over-valuing)?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I think holes are RELATIVELY small

a bunch of small little holes I think are more likely

like how are we evaluating baserunning, how do we value flexibility, etc

We've gotten most of the low hanging fruit

Will

12:55

Many fans believe that hitters with good plate discipline tend to age more gracefully. Have you ever investigated this?

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