JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/2/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:14

Look at that roster strength!

12:15

The average Reds opponent is nearly *100 points* easier than the average Padres opponent

12:16

The average Reds opponent strength for the rest of the year, on a 162-game basis, is a 74-win team and the average Padre opponent and 89-win team.

Basically, the Reds play the Marlins for a month

12:17

and the Padres play a month of playoff games

Analog Andy

12:17

Analog Andy and the Digital Dandy, worst Ambiguously Gay Duo rip off ever?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

And Towson *Town* Center floor fries is a reference to an old photo I post every few years

12:18

Javy being Javy

12:19

Does the "thumbs down" saga have any bearing on Javy re: free agency? Also, do you have an updated ZIPS contract estimate for Baez in FA? Does he break $100 million? Sounds like there was not a lot of interest in him at the deadline

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I don't think that it has an affect on free agency

Deadline was an asking price thing

ZiPS remains optimistic, but I think he falls short of $100 million

12:20

What one season-ending injury on any NL contender would most sink his team's World Series chances. A Brewers ace? A Giants bat? I would have thought Acuna's absence would break Atlanta but not so much.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I think the Padres need Tatis all month to catch Reds

zurzles

12:20

How does Wander Franco compare to the legend Wander Javier

Dan Szymborski

12:20

SLIGHTLY better

Philly Phantasmic

12:22

What was your worst or most awkward in-person encounter with a fan (who knew who you were, not just some drunken rando sitting behind you at a game)?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Haven't had anything too bad. I'm not instantly recognizable

You basically have to hear my name, I've only been on TV a few times

I did have someone who knew my name, but thought I was the PECOTA guy and said it was way better than ZiPS

Houzer

12:23

Is Carlos Correa really going to be worth the 30M+ he's going to get? Trevor Story seems like the better get this off-season .. for my Tigers

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Eh, Correa's having a much better year and is two years younger, which is a big deal for FA signings

Greg

12:23

Do you think there could be merit to using different peripheral ERA estimators for different pitcher types? I.e. use FIP to project ERA for hard throwers and xWOBA against for low velo & strikeout, still effective types like a Mark Buerhle?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I've actually looked at this but except for knuckleballer being weird, I haven't found anything to differentiate these

Guest

12:24

Have there been efforts (either successful or unsuccessful) to improve xWOBA by using spray angle? I assume someone must have tried this by now

Dan Szymborski

12:24

ZiPS actually uses it in a few of its z measures

And it's helpful

but I can't tell you what the MLB guys are doing

Houzer

12:24

Y or N .. Tigers offer JV a 2 year / 44M contract, with a performance option that triggers a 3rd year. Sign him to start, but let him close if it comes to that

Dan Szymborski

12:24

That kind of thing wouldn't shock me.

12:25

But it's too bad he's not the Justin Verlander of hitting. Still the biggest problem looking forward

Tyler Dearden

12:26

I know you saw my other post don't ignore me this week like the Red Sox have

Lets talk about Tyler Dearden one time Dan c'mon

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Like, what about? Specific questions are easy to answer