JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/2/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:28

My mom is referring to the younger one as J-Max, which is really pissing off my sister

Dave

12:28

Will you eat Skyline if the Reds win it all?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

No. I never made such a bet!

Eric

12:29

Would RnProd - RC be a good way to tell if a player's teammates are pulling their weight. And if so, would Joey Votto be the most wasted HOFer ever?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I guess, though I haven't given it much thought

Guest

12:29

What's the change in Bellinger's ZiPs from his post 2019 MVP numbers to now?

It's crazy how bad he's been.

Robles was optioned to AAA this week b/c of his struggles, yet he's had a higher wRC+ than Belli

Dan Szymborski

12:29

His velocity numbers have been distinctively meh

12:30

I DO write stuff from time to time!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020s-have-been-rough-for-cody-belling...

Dude just doens't turn on fastballs anymore, like he's 35

Analog Andy

12:30

Any good book recs? Need something motivational and educational.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Not sure I have a good rec along those lines

12:31

Though since we're heading into CBA fights, a read (or re-read) of Helyar's Lords of the Realm is recommended

Same kind of dark economic comedy along the lines of Barbarians at the Gate

Matt VW

12:31

Follow up on the playoff slate: the Red Sox look pretty shaky for the second AL wild card, esp. given the impact of their covid outbreak. Do you really see them hanging on/ getting in?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Getting Sale back was huge

The biggest problem with the team was zero rotation depth and a whole lot of guys with long injury histories

But their depth has improved now.

That's why ZiPS hated the Red Sox

12:33

plenty of scenarios where they were good, but it only took the random number generator to injure a few pitchers and the bottom fell out in a strong division

Dave

12:33

Not sure if this is too Inside Projections, but when you project a player, are you projecting all stats for a player or only projecting some stats and filling in the rest based on player profile?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

All the stats

Dave

12:33

Which of the Crew's big 3 starters does ZIPS believe in the most from 2022 moving forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

ZiPS like all three, but it loves it some C. Milwaukee Burnes

12:37

Put it this way: before 2019, ZiPS had Burnes with an ERA+ of 108. The mess of 2019 reduced his 2020 projection to an ERA+ of...107

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:37

What MLB player would you dunk into a vat of Cincinnati chili?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

If I answered, they may take away my BBWAA card for threats!

Because making someone interact with Cincinnati chili is literally violence!

Key Flaw

12:37

How does ZiPS deal with position changes? Like, would simulating Robin Yount if he didn't switch to CF from SS change anything about his projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

ZiPS looks for similar position players because it works slightly better with at approach. So change would be some but not HUGE

except for catchers to something else

Brett

12:38

Is there a specific cutoff you/ZiPS uses when determining which minor leaguers get projections for any given year?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

No, it's somewhat arbitrary

Gashouse Gorilla

12:38

Do you think the MLBPA has a competent negotiating team this time around?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

From talking with people, I believe so.

Philly Phantasmic

12:38

I was saying C. Milwaukee Boo-urnes

12:39

What would Robin Yount's 2022 ZiPS projection look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Don't make me murder you.

Philly Phantasmic

12:39

Under the current CBA, 172 days on active roster = 1 year of service time, even though the season is always 180+ days. To reduce service time manipulation (e.g. keeping prospects down for 2-3 weeks to game "extra" year), where would you set the line for number of days = 1 year of service time?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I wouldn't set a specific line because every specific line will result in a gain around the line.

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