JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/2/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/2/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:39

Owners would never go for this without negotiating the penalties down, but what I would do is treat all service time a player accrues every 6 years for a team as a "loan" for the team.

12:40

So if a player has 6.115 days when he hits free agency, the team then cuts him a check for 115/172th of his AAV in his next deal.

So if Kris Bryant gets a deal with an AAV of $21 million

12:41

The Cubs have to cut him a check for $20.9 million

So instead of excess service time over six years being a jackpot, it's only a loan.

12:42

If teams have to pay market value for every day of 6.000, there's less incentive to monkey around with service time

Now, owners wouldn't agree to that

But maybe they agree to a PERCENTAGE of that AAV

12:43

like maybe Bryant gets a check for 171/172th of 50% of his AAV. or 70% or 30%.

An awkward, arbitrary series of bright lines is a messy way to reduce gamesmanship. You get behaviors by *incentivizing* behaviors

Greg

12:43

Do you have plans to make ZiPS more useful for fantasy purposes for 2022? I know it's not specifically geared towards it and also has performed as the worst projection system against Ariel Cohen's grading.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Making it more fantasy useful is a priority, but not the top priority

The biggest issue is simply playing time

12:45

We do have a version of ZiPS Depth Chart at the start of the year now.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips...

And I can probably improve RBI/R model

But what happens is that my ZiPS Wishlist is a million items long and I tend to get the things that interest me first.

And my job isn't just to tinker with various models, I write toO!

Towson Town Center Floor Fries

12:46

Which team in each league is best set up for a 7-game playoff series?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Dodgers

They basically have 6 or 7 guys you're not afraid to start

The New Sports Illustrated

12:46

Which Marvel character is most like each MLB team? (Please do all 30, and include one snarky sentence half-heartedly explaining why)

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Wait, you want me to write an ENTIRE ARTICLE right now?

trophy

1

Maybe I can get the neural network to do it.

12:49

Holy crap, I thought I would have to train it with a custom generator

But it's working on its own.

Someguy

12:50

What do you think of Kyle Schwarber's performance this year? Do you think it is sustainable? Specifically batting average?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I think a LOT of it is real, probably most of it.

He's crushing *everything*

12:51

I checked it a few days ago and ZiPS actually think his slugging percentage should be like 10 points HIGHER than it is

Fangraph's Lurker

12:51

Dan! your fears have came true! Cleveland will no longer be the "Cleveland Guardians" now they're going to be the "Cleveland Emotional Intimacy"

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Ha, one of my favorite tweets of all time

12:52

I know that Cleveland Spiders has a history, but I just personally prefer mascots that aren't my fears. So ideally, I'd prefer no Cleveland Spiders, Cleveland Heights, or Cleveland Emotional Intimacy.

Mr. Cat

12:52

If I had a job tinkering with various models, I wouldn't have time to write.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I *really* enjoy writing.

And I think over the last 15 years, I've become a decent writer.

cool

1

12:53

If my dream was still to work for a team, that's where I would be. But this is what I want to do.

Greg

12:53

Dan - can you talk with the powers that be at Fangraphs to have them customize the Auction Calculation so that we can use different projection systems for playing time versus talent projections? For example, I'd like to use Depth Charts for PAs but ZiPS for HR/PA, R/PA, RBI/PA, etc.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I could bring it up

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