JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/23

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Dr. Neal ElAttrache

12:25

Did ZiPS change Shohei's projection over 5 or 10 years with the latest injury? If he only pitches a 50% starter load, or none at all, what's he worth on the market for offense alone over 3/5/10 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Yeah, I did it in Jay's piece like a week ago

Guest

12:25

Pads are 4.5 back with 9 to play, right? Those have got to be some pretty long odds. Especially since the SFGs are the only team ahead of them they can directly take games from.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Oh yeah, it's long

12:26

If the Padres win out

Just finished running

Wes

12:28

What's wrong with the Cubs? Do you think their 45% playoff odds seems about right?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

If you hang on a sec, I can give you latest ZiPS update. I just have to remove the nine guarantee padres wins

12:29

ZiPS says 47.5%

That seems to be about right. It's very coinflippy now

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:29

Does ZiPS do opt-outs for projected contracts? (Are they called zOptouts? Because that sounds cool.) If so, does the robot think should Shohei Ohtani have an opt-out in his next deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It doesn't necessarily do that, though I can *evaluate* the opt-outs

Opt-outs aren't inherently good or bad; there's a price at which it's a great idea for a player and a price at which it's not

Woodcock

12:30

Fun fact I can't use my last name in the show

mq

12:30

Do you see the yankees as having a systemic problem in player dev on the hitting side? I know most prospects don't make it, but this many underperforming their projections based on translating minor league metrics raises an eyebrow

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I honeslty haven't looked at this systemically

12:31

a lot of guys like Bird and Austin didn't exactly have wonderful projections

Krusty

12:31

As a Mets fan thinking about Senga's success and Yamamoto potentially coming to MLB: what traits matter the most for translating success from Japan to MLB? Have they changed at all since the 90s?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Generally speaking, the control pitchers that don't strike guys out don't turn out as well

It's no guarantee of course, but the pitchers who go more after hitters tend to do better

Guest

12:31

Doesn't the term "chili con carne" imply that meat is optional?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Same with assless chaps. It's to help the deluded.

LeilaAP

12:32

Does ZIPS think Brett Baty is gonna be a bust? Or is this year a temporary blip? Has Mauricio moved the needle at all on his projection going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

He's lost about 0.8 WAR per year in his long-term ZiPS projection

ZiPS still sees him as league-averageish, but the ceiling's been lowered

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:35

What players are you most excited to see the next batch of ZiPS projections for? Why them?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Hey, I do full runs monthly!

12:36

Davis Schmidt is now up to 5th most 2024 WAR among Blue Jays hitters

Guest

12:36

What are the chances Michael King follows Jeffrey Springs' career path - long time reliever stretched out into very solid starter?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I think there's a real chance

12:37

But I think it depends how much injury risk the Yankees feel like

12:39

He hasn't had TJ, but he's had a couple significant elbow injuries

and I keep getting images of Tony Saunders

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

12:39

Has this season moved the needle on ZiPS' 2024 projection for Kyle Bradish? His K% is fine (23rd among qualified starters), but his FIP is 9th, xFIP 10th.

What about Grayson's second half?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Slooowly. ZiPS is more optimistic about Rodriguez

Sammy So-so

12:40

Thank you for the computer images regarding my suggestion to elongate games by having the oddly aggressive Burger King mascot run on the field at arbitrary moments. That made me laugh. Does ZIPS think any of the Mets troika of Megill, Peterson and Butto can be a regular rotation option going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I don't even remember the image!

I do so many of those I forget the ones I do

12:43

But here, have a new one

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