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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:43

12:44

Didace

12:44

I can't find the answer to this (or, I'm not smart enough to understand the explanations that I find) - If you total Outs Above Average for all players at a position, shouldn't it equal zero?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

It should!

12:45

In our WAR process, our system automatically recenters to 0

bringbackpologrounds

12:45

How will the ZiPs forecast for Altuve change after this year? He has defied his 2023 projections, but are his underlying numbers signaling a decline?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

still projects well, but ZiPS is worried about playing time

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:45

We all understand your relationship with beans in chili: remove it to improve the end result. If you could remove one skillset from a current player to push them to the next level (e.g. force a switch hitter to hit from just one side, remove an awful pitch from someone's repertoire, play DH instead of the field, etc), what and who would it be?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I'm assuming I can't remove a PERSONAL proclivity?

12:46

Assuming so, I'd make Jordan Walker allergic to all baseball gloves so that he always DHs

Jonny

12:46

What is Zips saying about a reasonable contract for Pete Alonso? His HRs and RBIs continue to be robust, but the batting average and age/body type should be cause for longer term concern...

Dan Szymborski

12:46

ZiPS hasn't changed much since I did this piece!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pondering-a-possible-pete-alonso-trade/

SpicyBoy

12:47

Hasn't that always been the case Re: Bellinger tho? even in 2019 his exit velo and batted ball data was much less impressive than his surface level power. It feels like there's something currently unexplained with his ability to pull airborne contact. Definitely think there's regression coming (he's had a lot of fluky hits this year) but he's always felt like a statistical outlier in that his best performances don't match the underlying data

Dan Szymborski

12:47

But it was a lot better than it was now!

Guest

12:47

Has this season made you more bullish or bearish on Elly DLC? Best moments were sensational, but day to day is troublesome

Dan Szymborski

12:47

About the same.

Vincent

12:47

Dusty dislikes Chas for being fat, yet he gifts him banana pudding (alongside bread pudding and rice pudding, the king of puddings)? Seems like dirty pool.

Guest

12:47

Given the larger sample size, what does ZIPS think about Elly De La Cruz going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Really hasn't moved a ton

Colton

12:47

Is there a particular person that comes to mind the ZiPS just absolutely whiffed on their projections? Good or bad

Dan Szymborski

12:47

You mean year in year out?

Nobody I can think of

12:48

Though early ZiPS (pre 2010) was worse at figuring out who has a small weak contact inducement ability

So it was really bad at Gryboski for awhile

the gambler

12:48

would you using zips to make bets be some sort of conflict of interest?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Is it? It seems like we have the same interest

and while I've sold data to books, it's pretty much blind

Now, I don't do any betting on NL player awards anymore

12:50

So that I'm not in a position where I have to abstain from participating in vote do to having a financial stake

I hadn't given it much thought since I'm not a heavy better, but Yelich's breakout year, I had some decent sized bets on him being MVP and I would have had to turn down voting if I had been asked

I think I was Cy that year

Zach

12:50

Since you don't vote for NL MVP this year, you're at liberty to let us know who you would vote for. So lets hear it!

Dan Szymborski

12:50

NFI

Acuna/Betts is razor close

12:52

I might break a tie right now, like GageEHC on twitter, in Betts favor due to the additional positional flexibility which has some small amount of value that's really hard to capture

Guest

12:52

Have you had to update zips to allow for four digit wRCs to support Wyatt Langford's updated projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

heh

12:54

Wasn't Wyatt Langford the name of that Bob Knepper character on an early episode of Star Trek TNG that was originally supposed to marry Troi as a child?

Errr, Robert Knepper

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