JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/23

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Dan Szymborski

1:06

ZiPS is kinda in the middle

ZiPS already models a "weak contact ability" which it "gives" back to pitchers above or below their FIP-based WAR

Zips user

1:06

How do I port a statcast number into WAR? If someone has a +10 OAA is that the same as 10 runs which is the same as 1 WAR? Do all the statcast numbers work this way ?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

Well, use RAA for that!

Just Fowl

1:06

Will ZiPS break down when it gets to Yoshida, sputtering, grinding gears and sending up a plume of smoke as it stumbles along trying to reconcile his sudden collapse?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

WHY ARE THERE GEARS IN MY COMPUTER WTF POWER SUPPLY DID I PURCHASE FROM YOU CORSAIR

Tng fact checker

1:07

Hope for white Sox fans: even Fred Wilpon eventually sold the team

1:07

In a recent chat you suggested that voters might not be that excited by the 40/70 thing. Do you think there's any chance Betts wins at this point? Are voters taking into account his playing SS/2B/RF and his WAR advantage?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

I think it really comes down to WHO is actually voting

I could guess a lot of my colleagues ballots

but I mean 40/70 is exciting because it's good. But it's not like an established club

mac

1:09

the yankees' entire lineup of hitters has underperformed their preseason wRC+ zips projections dramatically. overestimating veterans is a known issue with projection systems, but the rookies are more concerning. volpe, peraza, cabrera, wells, and pereira are an average of 40.6 points of wRC+ below their projections.

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I don't have a wRC+ error due to age, as far as I've seen

1:10

A team having their 10th percentile projection is naturally going to have a lot of guys underperform

Just like every team that wins 105 games will have a lot of guys overperform

Lottery wins almost invariably are having the luckiest days of their lives

Zips user

1:12

How do you feel about DRS Vs statcast data? Is DRS obsolete in your mind ?

Dan Szymborski

1:12

ZiPS actually uses a mix

which is mostly Statcast, some DRS, and a little bit of UZR. It actually projects Statcast a bit better than Statcast alone does

HappyFunBall

1:12

Good bourbon IS delicious, but between inflation and the relative increase in popularity in the past few years, it is decidedly less inexpensive than it once was.

Tom

1:13

AL West prediction please

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I predict there will be five teams in the AL West until such time as expansion saddles us unhappily with eight four-team divisions

SpicyBoy

1:14

I miss chicken wings not costing as much as luxury food like steak

Dan Szymborski

1:14

HEAR HEAR

Padonia Station in Cockeysville used to have $9.99 all-you-can-eat wings during Monday Night Football, the Super Bowl, and WWE PPVs.

1:15

for Super Bowl, we used to go there, eat about 50 wings over the day for $9.99, and fill up on beer.

And there would be $2 pints of SOMETHING good

1:16

And the Damon's in Cockeysville that used to be there, near where the Sizzler is/was and near Andy Nelson's would have all-you-can-eat ribs for MNF

1:17

It was actually really late in the day on 9/11 that I knew 9/11 was happening, because of all-you-can-eat ribs

1:18

There were like six or seven of us at Damon's that night for the first MNF of the season

it was the Broncos/Giants game where Ed McCaffrey shattered his leg and Rodney Williams had that 90 yard punt

1:19

and I stayed at Damon's until midnight drinking Cokes until I sobered up, they had Honey Brown as their beer of the day and I could really knock back a ton of those like they were nothing

1:21

I'm not sure that story had a point

But I was thinking of it

Mom tried to call me at 9 AM to tell me something important was happening but I angrily told her I was hungover and trying to sleep and basically hung up on her

SpicyBoy

1:21

does anything have a point?

Dan Szymborski

1:21

Not really

1:22

She told me that someone had crashed their plane into the WTC, and I thought she meant some idiot in a Piper Cherokee was screwing around and I turned off my ringer so that she stopped bothering me while I was sleeping

1:23

So I was basically one of the last people who didn't live in a jungle to know something was going on that day

Bourbon

1:23

I bought a handle of Jim Beam on sale for less than the price of the fifths. That was inexpensive!

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