JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:57

ZIPS actually translates his minor league line at 274/368/487, but that's obviously NOT going to be the projection

since we're talkign 41 games

SpicyBoy

12:57

Can Rich Hill reach 300 wins?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

If he does, then does winning 300 wins become Climbing Dick Mountain?

Thomas

12:57

I think you meant Davis Schneider, not Schmidt, unless the Blue Jays have another Davis Sch who is going to come out of nowhere.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

wtf did I call him Schmidt?

12:58

Besides me being stupid

Especially since his name was right there and I've referred to him plenty of times

12:59

I guess technically fourth best Jay since Chapman isn't signed

Kyle

12:59

You have greatly offended and disrespected the Baltimore Orioles by your low preseason projection of their team. Obviously there is no need for a trial because you and ZiPS are guilty of this malicious crime. What should your punishment be?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I can only eat crab cakes and pit beef for a year

LindaKN

12:59

Is MJ Melendez a bust? Should the royals already be thinking abt trading Bobby Witt Jr.?Should the royals just be contracted?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Yes. No. Yes.

MNLakes

12:59

How crazy has Royce Lewis' grand slam binge been? He won't continue that pace but it is amazing to finally get to see him play again, pending current injury status...

Guest

12:59

Wyatt Langford - poor murdered character from Ozark

Tng fact checker

12:59

Apparently it was wyatt Miller

Dan

1:00

I always assume when zips disagrees with me you are just fudging the numbers to drive bettors to push the line in one direction so you can bet the opposite way afterwards. <Sarcasm>

Dan Szymborski

1:00

That would be an amazing long con

Errorless

1:00

Is there any data out there that can confirm MLB actively ruling less fielding mistakes as errors? I am convinced this is all a ploy to raise batting average so they can say their rule changes are helping the game (as I sit here in my tinfoil hat eating lunch).

Dan Szymborski

1:00

I'm not sure there's a great way to do this

because you basically have to track the "shoulda been errors"

Tim

1:00

FWIW, last time I checked statcast's baserunning metric (which doesn't take into account SBs but does take into account batted ball data) views Acuna as a good bit more valuable on the basepaths than the UBR and wGDP components of BsR suggest. No clue why fangraphs hasn't made the switch over yet

Greg

1:00

Acuna is being penalized because he's on base in front of Riley/Olson/etc who all have some of the highest hard hit %s in the league. Harder to take the extra base on a ball hit 100+mph than on one hit 80mph

Dan Szymborski

1:01

As noted, we still have GDP in there last I checked

thing is, it should be in there somewhere, just not necessarily in BSR

1:02

Unless you're modeling the rate at which you're turning shouldabeen GDPs into fielders choices

Fire Greg Walker

1:02

Do you have any words that can give Sox fan a glimmer of hope until Reinsdorf is no longer in the picture? Because it's feeling pretty bleak right now on the south side.

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Bourbon

It's inexpensive AND delicious

1:03

Until then, I have Reinsdorf next to an erupting volcano

Colton

1:04

No, I mean like the projection that they had for them was just completely wrong. Like they projected them to do well and they were terrible or vice versa.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Oh, I get a ton of those every year!

At the median

because, of course, you expect two percent of players to beat their 99th percentile projection or fail to meet their 1st percentile projection

so that's like 35 hitters and 40 pitchers right there

Colton

1:05

And I'm asking more career than single season, but if there's a standout in that I'd be interested as well haha

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I don't actually have THAT tracked

Zips user

1:06

I have a question about how to use your team/player zips forecast data at beginning of year. Is Zips a forecast of fWAR? If not can I use bWAR or fWAR "actuals" to compare to your projections ? Which WAR is best to use to compare ?

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