JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/25/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/25/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm an analyst, not an advocate, after all

TameImp

12:34

Who do you think is going to sign the more underwater contract off a career year for a center fielder- Bader or Grisham?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

For me, no question Grisham

(IF one was to sign an underwater deal)

Grisham's got a couple years on Bader and his offensive performance is more explainable

Matt VW

12:35

If the Dodgers win and clinch today, they basically have nothing to play for against the Mariners this weekend. Would this have any meaningful impact on Raleigh's chances for 63?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

SOME. I imagine the M's would let him try and get as many since it's veyr likely they have a bye

nat

12:35

Bold prediction (not data-based): Yoshida is about to go off, spray line drives all over the place, and make his contract worth it in the next month. Related question: Will Flemming said on the radio last week that Masa was LAUNCHING in BP before the game (when he didn't actually launch, but launched later in the week). Is BP tracked on statcast? Is/would there be any signal from BP EV?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I don't think BP is? I could be wrong

Guest

12:36

Bobby Witt Jr. - o/u line on career WAR - set at 60 or lower?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I'll say over now. Hopefully if he's not, you won't be able to find this!

Oaktown Blues

12:36

Did Leo De Vries finding immediate success in AA while showing more power meaningfully affect his ZiPS? (Also curious if ZiPS incorporates minor league postseason data, where he hit 5 HRs)

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Not by a MASSIVE amount. And yes

TameImp

12:37

Should day 1 of the wild card round be a national holiday?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No; why have a holiday to commemorate the 3rd through 6th place finishers?

12:38

I don't want a James G. Blaine tire sale

And Presidents Day should go back to Washington and Lincoln! I don't want to implicitly celebrate the lesser lights. Fuck Millard Fillmore, even if he's just 70 year-old Alec Baldwin with a time machine

12:39

laughing

1

trophy

1

JeffBagwell

12:39

Will the Red Sox have anything to play for the last 3 games

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Not after they clinch!

Guest

12:40

is the "home run advantage" in the playoffs because a) runs are harder to come by in the playoffs because there are better pitchers, so therefore b) you're more likely to score runs on homers than being able to rely on station-to-station runs?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

That is my working hypothesis

12:41

Look at great pitchers that have been meh in playoffs. REALLY frequently it's because homoers got to them. Look at Kershaw vs. regular season

homers are REALLY volatile for pitchers. BABIP is more volatile, but not quite as instantly impactful

Guest

12:41

will davy Andrews' article on this season being boring be possibly the worst aging article of all time

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I can think of a dozen of my articles or blog entries aging worse instantly!

I hated the Soriano-Wilkerson trade for the Soriano side!

12:43

(though in fairness, it came out later that Brad Wilkerson's shoulder was more screwed up than was publicly known)

When it catches up

12:43

I wonder if you saw this with Trout: his first year or two was so amazing but projections are so conservative that it takes a while to believe "okay fine he's gonna just be a 9 WAR guy" and then he started to break. I wonder if that's basically where we are with Judge, the projections seem to finally think "yeah Idk I guess it's an 8 WAR guy" and then he finally slows down. (I realize 8 WAR is "slowing down" for him.)

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I dunno, it didn't take ZiPS THAT long to catch up

12:45

His 2013 ZiPS projection was 8 WAR

12:46

on my end, trout WAR projecdtions starting in 2011: 2.9, 4.2, 8.1, 9.6, 9.6, 9.3, 8.6, 8.6, 8.8, 8.2, 6.2, 4.8, 4.7, 3.1,

that's the full season 2020 projecdion

Matt

12:48

Settle a weird argument: People are trying to tell me Cal's 60th HR ball is worth more than Trout's 400th HR ball. That is insane as of now, right? Trout was already a slam dunk HOF guy when he was Cal's age.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Is it though?

there are a lot more 400 HR guys than 60 homers guys

12:49

there are plenty more interesting Mike Trout balls

but this is likely THE coolest home run ball of Raleigh's career

12:50

(and Raleigh making the Hall of Fame someday isn't all that crazy even though he has a ways to go)

12:51

Raleigh's basically two years of 2024 level play from being top 30 JAWS already and that doesn't care about framing

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