JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:24

Peak? He's arguably already there

12:25

He only needs 20 something WAR to crack top 50 for hitters iN WAR though, which is certainly possible

top 50 for everyone is like 80 war? ZiPS thinks he has like 30 left, which woudl get him right about there

mmddyyyy

12:25

If they wanted to add another level to the minors, what level would be most useful?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Probalby a lower level

statsNOOB

12:26

In your last chat someone asked what zIPS is exactly and I think you called it a bunch of non-parametric models stitched together. Have you ever written anything more technical/academic about your models? Are there any resources you'd suggest to someone interested in learning more about that kind of modeling?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't really do technical writing because, to be perfectly honest, I find it kind of boring. You'll probably never see a formal research paper from me

12:27

there's a max kuhn book I'd recommend but I don't remember hte name at the moment, just search modeling and kuhn

Start with a better programming base than I did

12:28

I'm not a coder, so while the model is *good* and *detailed* it's nowhere near as *efficient* as it could be

mmddyyyy

12:28

Do players drive to the ballpark?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Quite frequently yes

Altuve

12:29

What is Altuve’s 50th percentile rest of career hit total?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

as of last week, 651

TKDC

12:29

Should the Braves save Sale/Fried for a potential game 162 against the Mets that could convert to game 1 of WC if they don’t need the win?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I would

Smiling Politely

12:29

Aside from CHW's loss total, what season result(s) has/have surprised you the most or was most unlikely?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

The Blue Jays beign THIS bad

12:30

roster-wise, they seemed to be one of the less volatile teams

mmddyyyy

12:30

Do pitchers still have personal catchers?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Some do

Sirras

12:30

How can I blame Manfred for the weather down south? Because I'd really like to!

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Manfred would never want a round of golf to be imperiled

Guest

12:31

not your fault dan, just a bunch of fantasy seasons over and the playoff races not as dramatic as they could be

Food comparison

12:31

who is the “chicken nugget” of MLB? Consistent, relatively high floor but not much upside. Additionally, who is the smoked brisket? Unlimited upside but super low floor.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I'd have actually said the Jays, but the floor was lower than I thought

I still think Jordan Walker has a real upside

but the floor is non-existent. He's basically collapsed to the molten core

Silly head

12:32

I've noticed recently that most of the best defensive catcher seasons (in terms of defensive runs) took place from about 2008-2013, which is when framing data became available IIRC. Were McCann, Lucroy, and others really THAT good at framing or did they simply focus on that aspect of catching when maybe not every team had quite caught on yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I think there's evidence that umpires being more aware of framing has tightened up their calling a bit

Sirras

12:33

Thank you, tip your server well and try the eggplant!

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I don't really care for eggplant. It feels smushier than it should

12:34

Except for broccoli/cauliflower which have a smell that physically sickens me, most of my food dislikes are texture/mouthfeel

Like I don't like eating straight avocado because if feels meatier in my mouth than it should

Yainer Diaz

12:34

How might my offensive projections change if I moved more regularlh to 1B or DH? Am I a special bat held back by the rigors of catching or a special bat for a catcher?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I'm not sure SPECIAL, but there is something there about moving guys off catcher

Sirras

12:35

Re: Chicken nuggets - for a few years, Khris Davis was that guy

Smiling Politely

12:35

Austin Barnes has probably caught 80%+ of Kershaw's starts

Sirras

12:35

Grimace?