JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/24

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Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:36

If the White Sox win out I will blend up a can of skyline chili and chug it

trophy

1

Sirras

12:36

Re: eggplant - you skipped the awful joke before the "tip your waiter" bit! Ah well, I'll have to be funnier next time

Trout

12:36

I know it seems absolutely absurd but is it possible Judge catches Trout in WAR by the end? I just don't see Trout staying on the field at all.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It's certainly *possible* if Trout's physical breakdown isn't ameliorated by a lesser defensive schedule

12:37

He's like 30-something behind in WAR

and ZiPS has him at 30ish, so MORE than 30 is a distinct possibility

Justin

12:37

Hi Dan. I'm a Mets fan so I'm more invested, but I feel like this is such a monumental screw-up by mlb to not move the mets/braves games. Am I overreacting? It just seems like this was so avoidable.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No, this isn't like a surprise hurricane

mmddyyyy

12:38

Do umpires punish blatant framing efforts?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I wouldn't go that far

But if you're called out as shitty at something, it's natural to want to improve

War2d2

12:39

Miguel Amaya had been the #1 prospect in the Cubs (admittedly weak) system for years, but was bit by the weird-injury bug. This year he was terrible for months, then on fire for most of July/August, and is currently back to being terrible. Does Zips think he's pretty much a bust, or will he have some value going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

SOME value, but ZiPS doesn't see him as anything mroe than stopgap starter at this point

Smiling Politely

12:39

Am I donning blue-tinged glasses in thinking that the Dodgers might perform *better* in a short series (at least compared to last year's miserable rotation) because, despite the lack of healthy starters, they have a bunch of deployable, 1-3 inning arms, Shohei Ohtani, and a likely bye?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I don't think so. I mean, ZiPS agrees with you

Greg

12:39

So we'll get a breath team and a candy team?

War2d2

12:40

The Cubs are both very young (starting 9 avg age is like 27) and very mid. They have some bats coming, but they all have big holes in their game--no "Kris Bryant 2014" in sight. That leaves FA to patch holes. Obviously a Juan Soto signing would fix everything, but they're unlikely to pay that. What would make a bigger dent in getting them out of the .500 range, Snell/Burnes or Santander?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

A pitcher

Bosoxforlife

12:40

One of the more astounding trivia answers is that until 2024 only one HR had ever been hit by a player with the first name of Jackson. An obscure catcher named Jackson Williams who hit one for the Rockies in 2014.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

It's kinda weird; haven't like all the MLB Jackson first namers debuted in the last decade?

I wonder why it became such a popular first name. I can't imagine it was because of Michael Jackson

12:43

Because by the late 90s/early 00s, jackson's star was pretty dim

Sirras

12:43

If the Mets fail to get into the postseason, will their fans

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think you're allowed to go to postseason games even if your favorite team is eliminated

laughing

1

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:44

What are the odds the Pirates actually build a contender around Skenes, Jones, Cruz, etc before they fail to extend them? 10%? 20%?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I'll say 20%

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:44

If the Rockies dug a 5,000 foot pit and moved Coors to the bottom, would that eliminate the Coors Hangover effect? Or does the travel schedule for such a remote team impact them as much/more?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Maybe? There are probalby some problems with playing baseball in an underground pit

12:45

and they'd do far better chasing good players than chasing an effect that *maybe* costs two points of OPS+ overall

12:46

Now, if you put the Monforts in that pit and they don't have phone access, that would be helpful to the Rockies

mmddyyyy

12:48

Does ZiPS handle a year missed due to injury or surgery recovery differently than a year off due to non-physical suspension or retirement?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Yes

WAR confusion

12:48

What is the cause for the rather large WAR difference for Matt Chapman between Fangraphs and baseball reference?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

DRS vs. OAA is part of it

12:49

I can't really dig into the rest of the diff mid-chat though

Trtaylor6886

12:49

I hope the Mets Tragic/Hilarity Moment was having a relief pitcher throw his glove in the stands.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

But Lopez didn't kill or maim anyone

More hilarity than tragedy

12:50

It's like power-speed score: a Mets Moment has to rated by the harmonic mean of the tragedy and hilarity

12:51

Players crushes his hand in an accident? Not a Mets Moment

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