JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/28/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/28/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:20

You guys should be reading the articles because you REALLY don't want to look at my centerfold

Vote for NOYB

12:20

Thank you for stats, and analysis. Thank you for being non political. Thank you for cats and chili. I anticipate ZIPS 2024 updates. So...Thank you.

cool

1

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I'm not actually personally non-political, I just don't want to impose any of my nonsense on others.

trophy

1

12:21

I won't cast shade and any who take a different approach, but my feeling is you get that crap from one direction or the other endlessly in your life, and since nobody should really care what I think about political things, why pile on and make your life even more of a slog?

12:22

I want you all to hate me for baseball opinions and my general personality.

cool

2

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:22

Dan we need your thoughts on Boog/JD complaining about RAJ stopping the game to celebrate

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I'm torn about it

It's hard to not celebrate

but it's also at a really awkward time

12:23

Like, I'm happy if the pilot asked the air traffic controller to marry them and she/he said yes but I'd rather you land the damn plane first

12:24

But on the other hand, teams should be able to get over stuff like this fairly quickly. Acuna didn't crash your plane into the Hudson

Kris

12:25

How much has the value of a single changed given the new SB based changes?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think second-order effects are going to be really small

Gerrit Cole

12:25

In a group chat I have with my friends, we were saying a few weeks ago that while Cole was Cy frontrunner it was a "Weak" year and then he basically told us to shut our mouths at the end there.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

If he didn't tell you to know your role before telling you to shut your mouth, it's not legally binding

cool

1

Gertrude

12:25

is this Cynthia’s facebooks wall i was told by myrtle i could contact Cynthia here. Happy birthday Cynthia i love you -Gert

party

1

Dead or Dying

12:25

How bleak are the Pirates' projections for next year compared to the rest of the NL Central?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Not as bleak as you may think

Because it's the NL Central

KC Pain

12:26

Do you think a team will ever just admit next year is an L, and go ham on the rule 5 draft (take like 5 guys) and give retreads a shot to find the next JD Martinez, Duvall, etc? *Looks at KC* Wouldnt that accomplish more finding a dude who can play than trotting out bodies to stand on the field?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

PROBABLY not?

The Oriole Bird

12:26

I fear that Felix Bautista will return in time for ALDS 80% his old self, only to be used as if he were regular Felix Bautista... and disaster ensuing for the Orioles. This feels so likely. Agree?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I'm super duper worried

Big Fan

12:26

Jay has a great article up on Mike Trout. What is a realistic trade package that GM's would be talking about? Is there that one team out there that would give up prospects of note, would a few teams absorb his contract without giving much back, or would the Angels really need to eat money to find him a new home?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I actually had a short discussion with Jay on the topic in Slack

Honestly, I'm not really sure

GMs aren't really gamblers these days. They're Turturro in Rounders, not Norton

12:27

If GMs made the decision, I'd think they'd have to eat a ton to get real prospects back

BUT, the Angels don't need all the owners to be crazy, just one

12:28

and if an owner can think that giving Kris Bryant an absurd contract will bring in fans -- which Monfort legitimately thought would happen -- one can evaluate Mike Trout based on who he was the last decade rather than the next one

HappyFunBall

12:28

How do you handle changes to projections where there was a fundamental change to the rules that more or less invalidates prior year data? I'm thinking stolen bases in particular

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Poorly

Loser

12:28

What makes ZiPS so special?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I don't think I've ever called it special.

I think it's useful

and it's the one I have access to, so I use it all the time

12:29

and it can do a lot of stuff since I'm able to devote a large part of my full-time job to tinkering

Justin

12:29

Hi Dan. Do your projections value end of season performance in any way over beginning of season. Wondering if there’s any built in assumption of adjustments being made. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I've found the signal is drowned out by noise

Natitude Adjuster

12:29

I recently read an article that claimed something like: the Nats obviously picked the wrong college bat (Crews vs. Langford). is that really a valid takeaway from such small sample?

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