JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/28/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:29

Too soon to say

DJ Kitty

12:29

2023 Orioles: have they figured something out that isn't yet quantifiable, or do some teams sometimes just outperform their projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm going to get in trouble, but I'll say the latter

I've been to this rodeo many times before.

Like I got WAY more grief about the 2021 Giants

12:31

same with the 2017 Padres

and 2016 Rangers

12:32

Projections are inaccurate because they're always going to be

You expect to miss by at least 8 games on six teams every year even with PERFECT knowledge of the underlying probabilities, which we obviously don't have

The important thing is that projection misses aren't correlated

Which is good in that there's not a specific bias out there

12:33

but bad in that there's no low-hanging fruit to harvest

So I always aks people who are mad at me the simple question:

12:34

What is the characteristic of _____ that is causing them to overperform and do teams with that same characteristic also overperform?

I've had 0 successful answers to that.

If you're going to argue something unique is happening, then you ought to have an idea what's unique

Zach

12:35

The Dodgers are going to win 100 games again this year, and it will be their lowest winning percentage in 5 years lol. How much longer does this dominant franchise run last? It doesn't seem like it will for the foreseeable future.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I can't see any particular danger on the horizon

12:36

The team is very, very competent at dealing with setbacks

12:37

And they've avoided lol contracts

The *Rockies* have larger guaranteed salaries from 2025-2027 than the Dodgers do

Appa Yip Yip

12:38

The Major League single season doubles record is 67, set by Earl Webb in 1931. Imagine you are a ball player and you just broke the record, you hit your 68th double with a couple of games to spare in the season. Your team has clinched a playoff spot and your manager wants to sit you for the last two games of the season so you can get some rest. Do you fight for playing time because you want to hit another double and set the record at 69? When fighting with your manager do you try to use the "sex number funny" argument? Which, if any, managers do you think might be swayed by the "it's super funny" argument?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I don't know managers well enough personally for who would find the joke funny

I'd probably want to set the record

Steven B. Smythe

12:38

Quite frankly this is preposterous.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I'm not even sure what this is referring to, but I'm sure I've written something preposterous

Multiphasic

12:39

That agency projection project is amazing. I love the idea of an agent pitching a contract along the lines of "yes but, hear me out, what if he were a different, better player?"

I'm absolutely using that next time I try and get a raise.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I wouldn't think of it that way

Agencies do a lot of work trying to improve players. And having something to point to can be helpful

12:40

I don't inquire about particulars. I have to set up a pretty strict wall in the things I do, so I cannot offer advisory opinions, so I never suggest if anything is a good idea or not

12:41

I'll sell you a projection, but I won't tell you what I *think* about a projection unless you're a reader

12:41

What is the lower limit of WAR? Say that they put me in as a DH, i have 658 PA with 656 SO and two groundouts, what would my WAR be?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think I did this for someone

12:43

I actually did a projection for a guy who asked

Have to find it in my media history

meanwhile, enjoy this one