JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/29/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:20

The Mets fate is *very* Scherzer/deGrom health dependent.

With a somewhat sunny optimism about them, ZiPS like the Mets more than any team in baseball right now.

12:21

But they drop way down without them.

STL STAN

12:21

Has anyone ever done an indepth look at the difference Yadi makes in a pitcher. Thinking specifically of Monty this season, but I would imagine that his career has been long enough that looking at pitchers pitching to him vs other catchers would be interesting.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Not that I'm aware of, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been done

Warren

12:22

Do you think Danny jansen breakout for real?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

The power at least should stick as it's hard to fake that. The Jays have an interesting conundrum at catcher because Kirk and Jansen are very different player, and it may not make sense from a resource standpoint to keep employing both of them. And Gabriel Moreno makes it even more complicated

Slapshot

12:24

If Justin Verlander doesn't exercise his player option for 2023, what kind of contract do you think he gets after his remarkable TJ comeback season?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

ZiPS says 2/48 for him. I can imagine him agreeing with the Astros on 2/55 or 2/60 or something

Sirras

12:25

How much sym could a Symborski borski if a Symborski could borski sym?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I don't know; my expertise is in szymming.

Wilson

12:25

Is Hayden Wesneski starting for the Cubs next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think it's very likely

12:26

Odds Gunnar is better than Witt, Jr. over the course of his career?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Sorry, was checking this out. About 60%.

12:27

When you're creating simulations and allocating IP, how do you value the additional inning that a starter can save the bullpen? Most bullpen arms are better than starter arms at a rate basis, which would make it seem like the "optimal" gameplan would be to throw your start for 2-3 innings and let the bullpen take over, but there's clearly some amount of value added from a worse (starter) arm throwing some additional innings.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's generally done with depth charts. ZiPS has to "fill in" the depth charts and it doesn't just backfill the same innings to whoever's hanging out

The good thing is that the variance between pitcher outing length isn't really that high

*everyone* basically throws less now

John

12:28

Early 2023 AL east predictions? Seems all over the place / any team has a legit shot…

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Chaos!

Guest

12:29

also just as importantly (and hopefully okay for chat?): who should be the one to dethrone Roman Reigns?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Gunther!

12:31

Id' really be happy if the world belts and the tag belts stayed unified

I think having two top-end awards for each is kinda dumb. I think the WWE title storylines should be cross-show

5 Run Homer

12:31

quick, give me your major award picks for this season

Dan Szymborski

12:32

AL: Rodriguez by a hair, Judge, Verlander, Hyde

12:33

NL: No comment, Arenado, not sure yet who I'd take between Alcantara/Rodon/Nola, Roberts

12:34

(I'm an NL ROY and we agree to not say our vote)

12:34

What should my top three priorities be this offseason assuming we re-ink Swanson.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'd love to see them add another pitcher. Most of the moves the Braves need to make are likely low key ones

Scotty

12:34

what's for lunch today, Dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I had some honey-vanilla yogurt, a couple mini-krackles, and a glass of milk

Sirras

12:35

Which playoff bound team is most likely to turn into a (metaphorical) pumpkin next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Honestly, I'm not sure any are likely.

12:36

The team projections didn't turn horribly wrong except for the O's

I do think the Cards have some long-term pitching questions they need to answer

12:37

but even a pumpkin makes you royalty i nthe NL Central

Sirras

12:37

Are you able to tell which player most dramatically shifted their longer term forecast based on this year? Let's call longer term 3+ year

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I can of course! If there's interest, after the projections run this year, I can run a piece about the biggest diffs in long-term outlook from the year before

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