JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/29/22

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Ben

12:37

Can the Brewers keep competing next year with their elite pitching staff? Or is it time for a mini rebuild (maybe trading one of their starters)? They never seem to have the bats...

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I think they *can* if they do a bit better job investing in offense

I don't think they're deep enough that they can keep winging it

Evil Dan Szymborski

12:38

How many would have to be eliminated so that *I* can become the best baseball player.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Well, I don't know how your baseball skills are relative to mine

Since my teenage years, it's my defense that's likely declined the most

I peaked in travel little league lol

12:39

My fastball is probably worse now, but I never could regularly throw over 70, so it's not like it was good

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:39

Ever play Final Fantasy 5? I wish more of the final fantasy series had the job system

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I've played all of them of course!

Just had a playthrough recently when the pixel remaster came out

12:40

I played it in the 90s in that fan translation for SNES emulator

12:42

Still have some work to do

Joe

12:42

NYY first 104 games, .673 winning %, next 29 .310, last 22 .773: Are we underrating NYY going into October ?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Some are!

12:43

it's weird how quickly people went from overrating them to underrating them

RECENCY BIAS YIKES!!!1111oneoneone

Golden Baron Frog Board

12:43

Thoughts on how people will look back on Judge's season? The anti-steroids crowd seems to still look at Maris, does that now change to Judge? Just seeing news reporting on it there definitely is a lot of weasel sentences coming from MLB such as "most homeruns in a single season... for the american league).

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I hope there's some perspective over time

12:44

Judge has had a wonderful season, one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a player, in a year in which offense is down, and he's even played respectable CF to boot on top of it

He doesn't *need* people to find loopholes to lawyer him into being the HR king. It *cheapens* his accomplishments when people do that, IMO

James

12:45

Assuming that Jim Crane pays Verlander, what is the Astros 2023 rotation?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think it will look a lot like this years

Appa Yip Yip

12:46

What happened to Mitch White? He was good in Dodger blue and has been quite bad in Blue Jay blue.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

There's some misfortune in there too!

Warren

12:46

Do you see byran reynolds getting traded this off-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I think *next* deadline/offseason far more likely

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:47

Ian Happ brought up a very good point on his podcast last week. How is the defensive component of WAR calculated for players 70, 80, 90 plus years ago? Can we really say with any precision what Rogers Hornsby's value in the field was?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

We can't, and we will never be able to

12:48

And we compensate that by some fairly low magnitudes

12:49

Or at least conservatism

Pahbs

12:49

Maybe you've mentioned it before, and sorry if I missed it, but do you incorporate hawkeye data or any sort of batted ball data into ZIPs projections for minor leaguers?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Where I have it -- more than is available to public -- less than teams -- ZiPS uses it when establishing a baseline

12:50

I've set up ZiPS to calculate things differently depending on what data are available

Max

12:50

Which player (who stayed mostly healthy) most absurdly underperformed his ZiPS this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Hmm

12:53