JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

The final Szymchat has arrived.

of the REGULAR SEASON.

The madness will continue.

Peter Thomas

12:03

So Dan, why does god hate San Diego? Is this a job for a shaman or are is the universe just attempting to keep the balance after gifting us 200 days of 76° and sun?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

No doubt the last two months have been cruel. Like there's a vengeful god who punishes the unsuccessful at the trade deadline.

Uh, header?

Fred

12:04

If the Mariners played it differently and had JRod up, would they be more firmly in the playoff picture?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

They're pretty firmly there!

12:05

One hitter doesn't make that much a difference, the biggest effect right now is the relative math.

12:06

If I add 20 points to Seattle's OBP and SLG, the playoff probs only go up four percentage points

(Compared to the probs that you'll see on the piece in the hopper!)

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:06

Dan what site do you use for the custom keycaps? I need me an old english D

Dan Szymborski

12:06

https://www.maxkeyboard.com/custom-backlight-compatible-keycap-for-bac...

Tree

12:07

Is Ohtani a little less valuable then some people might think if they just looked at his WAR, due to the fact that he's taking over playing time that another pitcher would be able to provide WAR

Dan Szymborski

12:07

The whole idea is that it's over replacement level.

It's not wins over wins over replacement level.

And the pitcher he's taking playing time from will be worse.

12:08

How would the Angels be better if Ohtani was no longer "stealing" playing time from Reid Detmers or Packy Naughton.

David

12:10

LARGE TEXT

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I figured it out

Now I can big dog all your text

12:12

laughing

1

2019 Belli Haircut

12:12

Bellinger went yard last night on a 96 mph fastball up in the zone... His struggles had to be the hair right???

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Well, if Ray can have magic pants

Lemma O'Farkus

12:13

It's pronounced Bayziz Theorem, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Shuh-shez-skee

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:14

Kelenic needs a nickname that rhymes. Any ideas?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

It's not THAT hard since it's two syllables

Hmm, but I can't think of any that are super closer

12:17

Just almost rhymes like pelvic or celtic

Ryan

12:17

Will the angels have enough financial flexibility to bring in 2 arms like Stroman/Gausmann this offseason? Would that be enough to get them to the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

They ought to, but it's more willingness than inability

Christian

12:17

In your playoff odds article yesterday I was shocked how skeptical ZiPS remains of the Mariners favoring them to win only one of their 4 remaining games. Does ZiPS still prefer the A's and Angels over the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Yes, but these are slight differences from 50/50

they're like coin flips but the coin has a booger on it

12:19

ZiPS expects a 1.47-1.53 record from Seattle in last series

brian

12:19

just started taking a forecasting class and woof, much respect to you and other projection system authors

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I like the part where you said nice things!

Matt

12:19

Will the Tigers be a playoff team next year

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I think that's still a stretch, but they're INTERESTING

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