JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:44

And since Rob Manfred's relatively feckless, MLB doesn't do anything about it

purplemini

12:44

speaking of nomar mazara, what do you think happens with him next year? Invite to camp? Plays abroad? What would he have to do to reach some of his potential?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

He seems like someone who would do well in the KBO

Treat Urner

12:46

Any thoughts on Jonathan Judge's proposed revenue/payment structure in BP this month? (i.e. players negotiate with owners only on the total pool of money reserved for salaries, and players then distribute the money among themselves)

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's interesting, but I'm not sure how workable it really is

12:47

Players have quite a conflict of interest determining salaries for themselves

And what would inevitably happen is likely just another veteran-heavy salary system

12:48

And can you imagine players agreeing to be paid on their FanGraphs WAR?

That would be beneficial for US of course, but I don't think they'd want that

Key Flaw

12:49

Ryan Mountcastle's walk rate in the majors is between 7 and 8%, which is much higher than his minor league numbers and almost acceptible! We've had over a season's worth of data so it looks to be 'real'. Is that a thing that happens often? Would ZiPS predict a different walk rate going forward after his year than previously? Was his last name was originally Schlossberg and changed to make it more American?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

It doesn't really happen that often, but changes in walk rate are "real" fairly quickly

Ryan Bombcastle

Skewbald

12:49

Do you think FanGraph Chat personalities plant questions sometimes? I'm surprised by the quality!

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I don't have a burner account because I would screw up like the second time I used it

12:50

And we have the luxury of getting to pick and choose questions

You guys ask a LOT of awesome questions

I answer them almost machine-gun style and I still can only get to about a quarter of them

Guest

12:50

Hi, Dan! Tried googling around for an answer, sorry if this question has a well-known answer but this has been my first season really making use of projection systems. Can you help me understand the timeline for ZiPS's future projections? Was looking for 2022 and 2023 projections on Jonathan India but was confused to see only about 100 games and a .220ish average with all counting stats significantly lower than his 2021 outputs.

Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:50

The three years are not updated daily! Those are preseason only.

Obviously, his future projections have gone up quite a bit.

Guest

12:51

Next 10 years: Robert or Soto?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Soto. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Robert, but Soto's other-worldly as a hitter and is one of the few players I'd take over him

brad penny for your thoughts

12:51

do you ever yearn?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Not really, I'm a pretty satisfied person generally.

Salvador Perez

12:52

Are all the 30-year-old catchers going to start getting Tommy John Surgery now?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Given how well it worked for Salvy, they should call it Salvador Perez surgery for hitters.

I Just Failed My Math Test

12:52

Who ends with the better career; Trout or Soto?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Still Trout

Oddball Herrera

12:52

Would you take the over or under on 32 for highest single season HR total rest of career for Marcus Semien? Understood that this may depend on where he ends up

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I'll take over. He's not a billion years old yet even if he's not young

Bessy

12:53

harold are you there. harold ? pick up eggs harold how do you send this oh dear

Guest

12:53

Your chats are a highlight of my week. Thank you!

Christian Colón for Men

12:53

What does Billy think of Dayton Moore's promotion to Team President?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I don't have any specific image

so here's an old one.

12:54

Joe

12:54

Was Semien just unknown because of Oakland? Is there a reason he had to settle for the contract he got? And what players will be candidates for short deal breakouts next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

People (and teams) overreacted to his 2020

Guest

12:55

Wow has there always been an ability to click on peoples’ names in the chat and DM them?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

In my chats there is

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