JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:30

I think the Cubs actually spend a bit this offseason and try to do the Rangers skinny rebuild

It didn't work for the Rangers, but they also had some bad luck

12:31

I wrote about this like a month ago - the Cubs aren't really in THAT BAD a position.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-will-the-cubs-roar-again/

brad penny for your thoughts

12:32

now i imagine you, after hitting a deer with your car, hunched over eating it's corpse like a zombie

TBD

12:33

If Hiura drew a picture about his "hitters block" what would it look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I guess a crude MS Paint drying of a military figure telling the president of a militarily weak country that they've now refined their missile launch systems and are now accurate to the nearest hemisphere.

Guest

12:34

Have you used GPT-3 to write any baseball headlines lately? It offered me some I'd like to read more about:
* The Royals have a new team president: Kevin Feige
* Roy Oswalt is 109 years old but still young at heart
* Orlando Arcia, hot shortstop and amazing wife, is the most awesome person on Twitter
* MLB needs to know your kneecap
* Owners increasingly respect and trust owners
* 30 Things You Might Not Know About Red Sox That Are No Fun at All
* Dansby Swanson endangers one of baseball’s dearest moneys
* Goddamn Padres

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I don't think I've done any baseball headlines lately!

It might be time for another run

12:35

My favorite with those is then having the neural network WRITE the article

12:36

For example, last time I did it, I got the headline Charlie Blackmon and Ben Affleck Have a Feud

12:37

12:38

Also, Cubs Fans Will Never Stop Bringing Candy to the Park

Christian Colón for Men

12:38

Best restaurant in the mall food court?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Boardwalk Fries!

Joe

12:38

Is the new CBA going to bring drastic changes to roster building? Feels like free agency is not what it used to be and all that matters now are draft picks and international free agents. Or maybe at some point free agents become under valued?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I expect there will be some tinkering around the sides, but nothing major

Ryan

12:39

Do you think the Royals can be competitive in the coming years?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

They can be, but I don't see a great deal of upside

Joe

12:39

I know the season isn’t over but the Padres have preformed at what percent of their range of outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Last I checked a few days ago, 9th percentile

in ZiPS

Josh Egg Foo Jung

12:40

How did Luis Urias develop so much power this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Size is overrated - he's been hitting with a lot more loft this year

12:41

The 22 homers is a surprise, but him having a solid year wasn't crazy

Urías already made my list in 2020 and put up one of the worst results of any of last year’s breakout picks, hitting .238/.308/.294 in 41 games for the Brewers. Since I’m clearly not afraid of being aggressively wrong about a young player over and over again — I had Nomar Mazara on my list for three consecutive seasons — I don’t mind sticking up for him one more time.
As lackluster as Urías’ performance in the majors has been, we’re also talking about a middle infielder with a .397 on-base percentage in the minors, a number earned while regularly playing at a high level for his age. Given the short 2020 season — preparation for which was interrupted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis — and his recovery from a broken wrist from winter ball, I’m willing to give him a mulligan for the season. The Brewers are also prioritizing getting him playing time at short, the position where has the most upside value.
This spring, the Brewers are going back to their original plan for Urias and put him at shortstop while Arcia,

ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Luis Urías
PercentileBAOBPSLGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBOPS+WAR90%.257.349.44347468122297156858106111083.380%.253.344.4194756612026713645711381012.870%.249.338.403477651192561262551217952.560%.249.336.395478651192561161541257932.450%.246.333.386479641182451160531286902.140%.243.327.374481631172351059511326851.930%.241.324.369482621162251058501366831.720%.238.318.35348462115214956481425781.310%.234.309.33648861114203854441524710.9

Wow, that doesn't copy and paste well

Christian

12:41

Probably requires more research than can be answered in a chat but is there any evidence that basement dwellers like the Orioles step it up in high leverage September games where they can be spoilers? Anecdotally they seem to relish the opportunity to play in some actually meaningful baseball games in a lost season.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Would be interesting, but I haven't looked at it.

It's a little too late for me to do this year simply because I have a lot of stuff already planned on my plate

12:42

Spider Tack! OK, not really, but mentioning Cole and spider tack is a great way to get everyone on all sides SUPER MAD.

barney gumble

12:42

hey dan. what do think is up with Cole? he insists it's not the hammy. is he just gassed?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I should probably post the question before the answer

Key Flaw

12:42

As an Orioles fan with a long memory, I can't root for the Blue Jays to be in the playoffs, but as an Orioles fan with a long memory I desparately want to Red Sox and Yankees to be knocked out of the playoffs. I am conflicted and need a word to describe it.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Basically, the scenario you're rooting for -- which is satisfying -- is this:

The Mariners make the wild card.

12:44

They then declare that they will not entertain a wild card game as they opponents are beneath them and just show up in Tampa, after imprisoning the other wild card opponent.

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