JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/8/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:25

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-zstats-update-for-the-stretch-driv...

Dancing Dan Mcgraw

12:25

Does any team sign judge to play CF next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

He might play some CF, but I can't imagine that being his home long-term

It's a nice-to-have in the early part of the contract

12:26

But nobody's going to plan to have a 6'7" 35-year-old dude in center

Blake

12:26

Don't have a question, just wanted to say I'm a Brewers fan and I'm sad.

Shabba

12:26

Have you fought Baumann yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Wait, are we supposed to fight?

Pkpkpkpk

12:27

Hey there Dan, thanks for the chat. I'm wondering if you have any insight into Freddie Freeman and his power shortage (doesn't quite qualify as an outage) and how that might affect his future projections. He's obviously hitting plenty, and his production is still excellent, but I'm curious as to whether the change in the shape of his production affects his projections positively or negatively, if at all.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I doubt much of a change in projections. It's not like his hard hit numbers have crashed

12:28

Plus league HR rate dropping by like 15% and aging are part of it too

The shape may change a bit -- a bit more BA a bit fewer HR -- but I don't imagine it would be much of a change

ZIPS crystal ball

12:29

How did ZIPS formulate that Andy Yerzy ARI would be MLBs #2 catcher in home runs in 2024? I was like "who?' thank you.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Not anymore! He hit a lot of homers in a pretty bleak environment

Braydon

12:29

If you could only have one of Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbaar moving forward, who do you take?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Still Dylan

Guest

12:29

Time for hot takery: According to you, one Dan Szymborski, if Judge hits 62 is he the 'real' single season home run king?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

12:30

And it also doesn't really matter

If anything, arguments like that *cheapen* Judge's accomplishments

He's been awesome and they stand on his own

12:31

But once you make the argument for him "hey, he has this record if I do a whole bunch of arbitrary lawyering about that record" it makes it sound like his argument for greatness is a loophole

12:32

And it *is* a loophole. You have to be very specific about how you're doing asterisks to get rid of Sosa as well as Bonds/McGwire

Maddux

12:33

Yordan's injury could really be a problem for the astros in the playoffs it seems, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

it's certainly a concern

James

12:33

Back in 2012, what would zips have given for odds that Jose Altuve would hit 188 home runs over the next 10 years?

David

12:35

Tilset is cheese apparently for the others who hadn't heard of it.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

workin on it james, hang on

In the meantime, Tilsit's in that super-stinky Limburger/Liederkranz category, though it's firmer

12:41

6% on Altuve

12:42

90 was the projection, but there's a lot of uncertainty about young players

12:43

x2R

12:43

Game 7, winner takes all. Who you want in your team: Judge or Ohtani?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Ohtani because he has the most one-game value

Judge is more valuable than Ohtani when Ohtani's not starting

Liz

12:44

Do you think the Orioles are actually going to spend big in free agency this year (as Elias claimed), or is that just what a GM is supposed to say? If they do, what big name(s) do you see them going after?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I don't think they're going to sign Judge or anything

but I can see them being aggressive on someone like Rodon

Zach

12:44

Recent reports state that Bellinger refuses to change his stance, specifically not spreading out and lowering his hands, as he believes he can still succeed with the swing he had when he won MVP. How can someone who has been the worst qualified hitter in baseball over the past two years be so stubborn as to not completely change everything?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

High-end professional athletes tend to be stubborn; it's hard to get to that level of play without an enormous amount of confidence

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