JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/8/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:44

Now, not a*all* players will be, but it helps

12:45

Superb owl prediction?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think Great Horned owls are the most superb owl

12:46

though Barn owls are really helpful and they kinda look like Odo from DS9, which I like

Tysmith

12:47

Jeffery Springs pulled after 3 IP and 39 pitches? Does this feel like a IP cap?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I honestly don't know. It's possible

Mister Puppy

12:47

I am sitting in the front of my classroom. My students have no idea I'm chatting with the great and honorable Dan Szymborski during their class. If only they knew... Now, say something about the Orioles and the biggest weakness they need to address this winter!

Dan Szymborski

12:48

"This may come as a shock guys, but I'm talking to Dan Szymborski!"

"Who?"

I want to see the O's adding pitching

Shabba

12:48

Passan Breaking: Two teenagers are suing the Los Angeles Angels in the Dominican Republic, alleging that the team reneged on verbal agreements to sign them. Because of Dominican law, they could win -- and fundamentally change baseball.

Sodo Mojo

12:48

Lost in Julio Rodriguez's monster first year has been the amazing season Cal Raleigh has put up after Tom Murphy went down. Zips is fairly pessimistic about his next three years is that just because it has not been updated yet or are their underlying issues that make Cal's breakout less sustainable?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Oh, the three years are preseason!

It's no doubt improved

Guest

12:48

Does your gut (or research or ZiPS) tell you that one or more positional adjustments are too high/low?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

From research, I think the DH adjustment is too high. Both I and mgl/tango have found, through varying methodologies trying to deal with injuries, that there's strong evidence that healthy players will hit worse as a DH than playing in the field

12:50

not a HUGE amount

but the evidence consistently points in that direction

Yo-Yo

12:51

Tommy Edman leads MLB in DRS and leads the NL in OAA, but he doesn't have enough innings to qualify at either second or shortstop. He has half the innings of his peers at each position (or even less than half). Could he win a Platinum Glove without winning a Gold Glove? Is that even possible? Would you consider a vote for him at either position?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Oh, I use 1B penalty for DH in ZiPS

We *have* talked about overhauling positional adjustments, make them more dynamic based on league characteristics

But nothing solid to report on that front

12:52

And I'd consider voting for Edman in a scenario in which I voted

Should still consider OAA leaders, I mean, it's a counting stat

If someone hit 53 homers in 388 PA and led the league, it would be weird to not consider them the HR leader

Jordan

12:53

It seems like Nate Lowe has taken a massive step forward this season, and especially the 2nd half of the season. Is it possible he's really this good with the bat, or more likely he's just having a really hot 2nd half?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I hope so, I'm still annoyed he didn't break out last year when he was on my list!

Call me cautiously optimistic

Golan Norman

12:53

Can Zips estimate Paul Goldschmidt's chances of winning the triple crown?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Yeah, but not as easily as it projects other things as I have to run a whole bunch of projections

Shabba

12:54

Have you ever been to Gene and Judes?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I have not

If the moon was made of cheese would you eat it?

12:54

I'm amazed at the gap in Judge's HR total vs. the runner up (in both AL and MLB). For example, when Bonds hit 73, freaking Gonzalez almost hit 60... What is the largest % difference in HR leader vs. runner up in history? Am I making a bigger deal of this than I should be?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

The funny thing is, I have a chart about this in an article unrelated to Judge that I'm writing

Check for it tomorrow! lol

Union Follow up

12:54

I apologize for my ignorance, but can you explain the conflict of unionizing the minor leagues? (I have no position/opinion here, I just don't understand what Dansby is implying)

Dan Szymborski

12:55

Well, the issue that may pop up is that you're dealing with a very large group of players who may have different incentives than MLB players

12:56

And there can be unity problems when you have conflicting interests in large groups

imagine an odd union The International Brotherhood of Tobacco Workers and Oncologists

robertobeers

12:56

A man, a Dan, a cat toy, ottacanadanama

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