Dave Cameron 2017 Trade Value Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:14
KC is probably at the bottom.
LAD or CHC at the top. But probably LAD.
Bryzzo
12:14
If Mike Trout hadn't signed an extension, he would've been a FA after this season.  Just spitballing, what would that contract look like?  Is 15/600-ish not crazy?
Dave Cameron
12:15
A team might make it 20/$600M just to lower the AAV for luxury tax purposes, but yeah, I don't think it's insane to think he gets near that. He clears $500M easily.
Cornercreek
12:16
I was surprised not to see AJ Pollock on the honorable mentions list. Too many injuries and too short of a contract for a top 5 CF in baseball?
Dave Cameron
12:16
He's a free agent after next year. If Harper, Machado, and Donaldson can't make it from that FA class, no one can.
Nelson
12:16
Its hard to feel bad for millionares, but reading this makes me feel bad that great players need to sustain it until their late 20s to actually get paid. Doesnt seem fair
Dave Cameron
12:17
The union should be more aggressive in changing the system away from "all the money to old guys". It's not great for the game that guys at the end of their careers end up getting a big chunk of the available cash, and then get reviled by fans for being overpaid when they struggle, while the best players in the game make relative peanuts.
Scott
12:18
just 3 pitchers in the top 15 and 4 in the top 25. Obviously elite positional players are always going to be more valuable than elite pitchers but is the market locking up elite pitching to bigger deals earlier? I suppose it could be elite pitchers develop later into their 6 controlled years on average?
Dave Cameron
12:19
I think it's just randomness. Fernandez died, Syndergaard got hurt, and the best young pitcher to step forward this year (Fulmer) doesn't have that kind of strikeout rate to crack the top 20.
There were a few more pitchers higher up last year.
Logan Davis
12:20
I know that with Quintana moved no one else on this list is very likely to get traded any time soon. But who on this list would you most *like* to see traded, from a perspective of an observer trying to learn about how the league values talent?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Jose Ramriez, maybe? Guys like him are difficult because the performance is so different than what he was expected to be.
Do teams buy into the power spike entirely at this point?
Bruce
12:21
Are you worried about Bill Simmons tweeting at you for "stealing" his idea, like he did Jonah?
Dave Cameron
12:21
He already did that like six or seven years ago.
lunch
12:21
i seem to remember last year's list having a lot more prospects on it. was the change to more major leaguers this year caused by those prospects graduating to the big leagues, losing value, or a change in the valuation process?
Dave Cameron
12:22
I talked about this a bit in the HM section, but this year's crop of prospects aren't as good as the last few years.
J
12:22
So Judge has performed better than pretty much anyone this year and has an extra year of control over the guys ahead of him.  How close was he to #1 and the top 5?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Not that close yet. For me, there were basically groups of 1-5, then 6-15 or so, and then 16-50. Judge was squarely in that second tier of guys behind the big five, but none of those guys were all that close to passing Lindor.
curious
12:23
suprised to see some aging players so high on your list (Kluber most notably) why are the porjections on his aging curve so generous?
Dave Cameron
12:23
He's really good.
TKDC
12:23
When a prospect is traded, like Moncada, do you think the trade itself lowers his trade value? Because it shows that maybe his team doesn't really believe in him?
Dave Cameron
12:24
A little bit. Not in every case. But there is evidence that traded prospects generally fail at higher rates, because teams are selecting the guys they're worried about to trade. Giolito is a good example of a guy who probably is still being overrated by prospect rankings, and the fact that WAS wanted to dump him should scare us.
J
12:25
Quintana is walking 9% of guys while allowing over 80% contact.  How concerned are you that the Cubs didn't get the guy his track record suggests he is?
Dave Cameron
12:25
Not that concerned.
Joe
12:25
Where would Kershaw end up if he didn't have the right to opt-out after a trade?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Well, he'd still have the opt-out after 2018 too, so even without the poison pill, it's 1.5 years. He might have been at the back end of the list even with that, though; he's more valuable than the three great hitters who didn't make it due to 2018 FA.
Cistulli's Guy
12:26
What would happen if one of Cistulli's Fringe Five-type guys made it onto Dave Cameron's 2020 Top Trade Value List?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Jose Ramirez and Corey Kluber were in this year's Top 15.
As much as it's fun to pick on Carson, his track record of identifying undervalued prospects with upside is actually really good.
Nate
12:27
How much would a large extension factor into a trade value for the younger talents like Correa? Would the value stem more of the WAR projections or the AAV/WAR?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Depends on the extension, but it'd probably help. Getting a few more FA years under control, even at expensive prices, would likely get teams to bid even more.
Michael Scarn
12:28
I know that the list is based your feel via information you get from contacts in the industry - but would you personally place Lamb ahead of Harper if all 30 GMs were Dave Cameron?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Yeah, probably. The difference between Harper and Lamb next year is maybe three wins at most. Lamb will cost ~$15M less, then give you two extra years of control past that.
I think you're better off with Lamb, whatever $15M buys you for 2018, and two years of a good player at arb prices than Harper for one year.
RK
12:30
See the Fulmer on the block rumors?  Thoughts?  Think it's a good time to sell to accelerate rebuild?
Dave Cameron
12:30
All I've seen is that teams have called Detroit and been turned away.
12:31
Not specifically trade related, but Michael Pineda needs TJ surgery.
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