Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:09
Yeah, I think he'd get something like the 7/$140M I'm projecting for Cueto. I don't think his signing ever looked bad, and Price deal doesn't really change that.
Andrew G
12:09
What is your stance on expansion? Do you think MLB is ready for it? When do you expect it to happen next?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I do think that, with the demand for live sports television content, finding the right city in terms of infrastructure is less important than it used to be. A team can be profitable without selling a thousand luxury boxes now. But I still don't think we see it within next 5 years. Maybe 10.
Matt
12:11
Alright Dave...Miller, Mallex Smith, and Arodys Vizcaino for AJ Pollock. Who says no?
Dave Cameron
12:11
The D'Backs
Jason
12:11
You predicted Price to the Red Sox for 7 years and $215 million. He signed with the Red Sox for 7 years and $217 million. You missed by $2 million. What's wrong with you, Dave?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Well, I really missed by more than that, because the opt-out has real value to Price. So I probably missed by more like $20 million.
Q-Ball
12:11
How would you assess James Shield's trade value, given the 3/66 left on his deal? How much would Padres have to eat to even out the value?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I think the trick is his opt-out after next year. You're basically asking a team to risk $66M for the right to hope for one good year and then the chance to make a qualifying offer next winter. That opt-out makes him very tough to trade.
Drew
12:13
Thoughts on where the Cardinals go for pitching after losing out on David Price?
Dave Cameron
12:13
I could see them getting in on a guy like Chen.
dom
12:14
Some fans are acting like the opt out is somehow good for Boston. Even if he pitches well and opts out, and they are a contender, they will be in a position where they are pressured to resign him and give him more money. Exactly what happened with CC and the Yankees
Dave Cameron
12:15
The opt-out is never good for a team. It can be offset by reducing the amount of money the team guarantees -- the player is essentially buying a perk at that point, not unlike a regular working stiff who takes a lower salary to get health insurance -- but there is no scenario where the opt-out is a good thing for the Red Sox.
Ben
12:16
Gardner + Nova + Refsnyder for Kipnis......who hang up first?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Indians have no interest.
Kim
12:16
Does Aoki effectively take the Mariners out of the running for Ozuna?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Not necessarily. If they can land another OF, Seth Smith could move to 1B.
Chris
12:17
Would you tender Alvarez a contract if you were the Pirates? He doesn't seem to have any trade value, (a la Trumbo) but relying solely on Mike Morse to hold down the fort until Josh Bell gets there doesn't seem ideal either.
Dave Cameron
12:17
Alvarez is bad, so I'd non-tender him and look for someone better.
Kimball
12:18
Corollary to Meowmix's question: isn't an early opt-out arguably better for the Sox? Having the opt-out sooner rather than later reduces the risk that the wider market will reevaluate his value downward, thus increasing the chance that he walks, in which case they get Price for 3/90 while he's still close to/in his prime.
Dave Cameron
12:19
If he opts out of his deal, that means he's worth more than the remaining 4/$102M left on his deal. And if he's worth more than what's left, he's a positive asset, and if the team wanted to avoid the mid-30s risk, they could trade him for value. Think of it this way; would you think the Mariners should be happy if Felix Hernandez magically was given an opt-out and used it tomorrow?
12:21
He's coming off the worst year of his career, his velocity fell last year, and he's been worked hard in his career. Lots of red flags suggesting there could be a big decline coming. But no one thinks the M's should want Felix to leave right now, because everyone realizes that they could trade him for some pretty nifty things.
Zonk
12:21
If the Cardinals retain Heyward, do you anticipate them trading an OF for pitching? If so, would that be Grchuk, or Piscotty?
Dave Cameron
12:21
I would think Piscotty would move to 1B
Zonk
12:21
There seems to be zero chatter out there on Kazmir. Is he underrated? What do you see as contract for him?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Mid-tier pitchers waiting for top guys to clear the deck.
I think I guessed 3/$48M for him.
Gary
12:23
Wouldn't you much prefer something like Heyward 10/200 (or even 10/220) to Price 7/217? They're both 5-6 ish WAR players, but Heyward doesn't pitch for a living and he's younger.
Dave Cameron
12:24
Price's value is amplified in the postseason, and Heyward's defense isn't likely to stay at its current level, so I think it's close. But yeah, I'd have no problem giving Heyward $220M.
Trainman
12:25
It seems like zobrist will get a 4 year deal. Is it possible he could get 5, with the rumored amount of teams interested in him?
Dave Cameron
12:25
No, I don't think anyone is going to go 5. It will be 4 years for $15 to $17M, probably.
Trainman
12:26
Does price deal set precedent for what a Harvey, deGrom, syndergaard could get when they become free agents (yes I'm a mets fan). If each of those guys hit FA today, what would each one get?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Guys with TJ surgery on their resume will always have to take a discount.
Patience
12:27
Is there a chance that part of the reason the Mariners are trading players like Trumbo is to clear salary room for a big free agent? Or are they just churning the roster as one might expect and trading those guys because they don't fit Dipoto's preferred profile
Dave Cameron
12:27
Team already has big money on the books for Felix/Cano/Seager. I doubt they're going to put another big commitment on there.
Kimball
12:27
With Zimmermann's contract coming in under most experts' estimates, why are so many reasonable commentators (e.g., Passan) holding it up as "with this guy is worth 22m/year, the market's finally gone crazy"? Haven't a lot of riskier bets have been made in that AAV ballpark?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Yeah, I didn't get that column at all. Zimmermann is obviously worth $22M per year, no irrationality needed.
The Average Sports Fan
12:28
Even if the Reds decide to embrace a full rebuild, what besides Chapman do they have to deal without having to put money in the deal?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Bruce, Frazier.
Drew
12:29
Many fans think Price's contract is outrageous. How do you explain to them that he's actually worth around $240M in the simplest way possible?
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