Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:29
"Would you rather have one David Price or three Jeff Samardzijas?"
Michael Scarn
12:30
As a Red Sox fan, I'm concerned that we had to offer Price $30+ mil more than the Cardinals because he wasn't very excited about the idea of playing in Boston. Is that a legitimate concern or am I overthinking?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I think it was probably specific to Price. His negative history with Ortiz, the stigma of black players in Boston, and the fact that STL is closer to his home in Nashville probably made STL a better fit for him if the money was the same, but not every player has those same variables.
Bob
12:31
Can't fathom the Cubs being willing to give up Soler for what would be their #3 SPer. And Soler signed to an incredibly team friendly contract now at 5/$18M. It would be idiotic to give that upside up.
Dave Cameron
12:32
Depends on what you see as a reasonable expectation of his future production. He wasn't very good last year, and Steamer hates him. If you think the power is only above average instead of elite, then he's a league average player, and not that hard to replace.
If you think he's a +4 WAR monster in the making, then yes, you keep him. But I don't think that's the obvious expectation at this point.
dom
12:33
If every player were a FA, would average salary go down because of excess supply? Or would that be taken care of by increased demand?
Dave Cameron
12:33
The top salaries would come way down, and the bottom salaries would come way up. FAs are paid from the savings of pre-arb and arb eligible players. If you do away with those structures, not as much money left for aging veterans.
Jenkins
12:34
Last week you said that Pedro Alvarez wasn't worth a tender, but the next question said that Trumbo would get traded. They're virtually the same player (besides RH, LH) so why the dislike of Alvarez? I don't think either are great, BTW.
Dave Cameron
12:35
Alvarez can't catch the ball, shouldn't play first base. Trumbo is a decent defender at 1B.
Joel
12:35
Have you ever seen an actual major league contract? I wonder if it's many pages like when you buy a house, medium like when you buy a car, or just a single sheet of paper?
Dave Cameron
12:35
Yes, I have. They're pretty long. Lots of stuff in there.
Q-Ball
12:35
is it possible for a CLUB to have an opt-out clause? Or is that what club option years are for?
Dave Cameron
12:35
Yeah, opt-out is just another term for player option. When a team has one, it's called a team option.
Yoc
12:37
If the Mariners were to target a 1B via a trade or free agency, who do you see as some likely candidates?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Steve Pearce makes some sense for the Mariners now that they've dumped Trumbo and could probably use some RH power to balance out the line-up.
hop on pop
12:38
Shelby Miller to Sox for Benintendi and Johnson. Who turns this down?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Red Sox
They love Benintendi
Justin
12:39
If the Dodgers don't sign Greinke, are they more likely to sign or trade for pitching?
Dave Cameron
12:39
I would think trade.
Mark
12:39
Why should I trust fWAR when you openly defy it by voting for Arrieta over Kershaw?
Dave Cameron
12:40
It is entirely possible to believe a metric has value without believing that the metric perfectly encapsulates the entire value of player valuation. WAR is great, but it is also flawed.
If you need a metric to be perfect before you trust it, you should never trust any number.
Q-Ball
12:41
Because Heyward is 26, you have to think his deal will include an opt-out after 3-5 years. Agree?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Yeah, I'd guess after 4.
Mark Armour
12:41
I don't disagree with your opt-out logic. But its very possible Price could opt out because he believes that one or more of the 30 MLB teams will give him a better deal than 4/125 AND the Red Sox are not one of such teams. In that scenario (not implausible) the Red Sox benefit from the opt out.
Dave Cameron
12:42
No, because the Red Sox could just trade Price to that team, who would be happy to have him for less than what they'd have to pay him in FA, and would compensate the Red Sox with talent in order to get him.
Matt
12:42
Has the Dbacks FO suddenly improved or is Pollock for Miller just so obviously lopsided that everyone knows it?
Dave Cameron
12:43
I would imagine that everyone in baseball knows that offer is nutso.
Tom
12:43
I feel like there are situations where a team would prefer 3 Jeff Samardzijas.
Dave Cameron
12:43
Sure, there definitely are. But Boston isn't one of them.
Joel
12:43
Cliff Corcoran at SI wrote an article re: the David Price contract, and used a $6.85/WAR figure, supposedly derived from Dan Szymborski's ZiPS model. Can you explain the difference in the number? I'm pretty sure teams were paying 6-7 / WAR 2-3 offseasons ago...
Dave Cameron
12:44
There are a lot of ways to calculate $/WAR, and lots of different assumptions that drive the conclusion. People even have different ideas of replacement level, so if there are more WAR in the world, you're going to pay less per WAR.
James
12:45
Seems as you've cooked some on Soler's outlook. Is that the case?
Dave Cameron
12:45
I'm certainly lower on him now than I was a year ago. Which, given his pretty poor 2015 season, is probably appropriate.
Sody
12:46
If Greinke resigns with Dodgers who do you see the Giants going after? Do they get two starting pitchers and a LF like Upton?
Dave Cameron
12:46
They seemed to be interested in re-signing Leake when they traded for him.
12:47
So maybe they go Samardzija/Leake instead of Greinke or something.
dom
12:47
So we keep hearing about how sluggers don't age well, defense peaks early, etc. Even plate discipline can fall off if players have to cheat starting their swing earlier due to decreased bat speed. So are there any skills/player types that age well?
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