Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:47
Athletes. Guys in good physical shape with a broad base of skills age better than anyone else. Think Kenny Lofton.
Adam
12:49
Can Lonnie Chisenhall follow the same career arc as Gordon? Already a parallel with switch from 3B to OF, being top prospect.
Dave Cameron
12:49
Bat isn't anywhere close to as good.
Rols
12:49
While playing with the same defense behind them, Kershaw's FIP was .14 points better than his ERA while Greinke's FIP was 1.1 points worse than his ERA. The answer could simply be that they throw different pitches (Kershaw relies more on strikeouts while Greinke plays to contact), but can you explain this?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Defensive performance isn't static.
12:50
No one thinks teammates who share an offense get the same run support. You shouldn't think they get the same defensive support either.
Zonk
12:50
When a player opts out, can you hang a QO on him? You can with a player option right? So isn't that a potential difference?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Yes, if a player opts out, you can hit him with a QO. Gordon and Greinke this year, for instance.
Gabe
12:51
It's true that, if Price exercises the opt-out, then the Sox probably could have traded him for something of value (I assume they can make him the qualifying offer in that instance, but also assume they could have traded him for something worth more than that). Still and all, if he exercises the opt-out it will mean that he's pitched quite well so it's something of a win-win.
Dave Cameron
12:52
Again, no. Think of this in non-baseball terms. I'll sell you my car for $10,000. In three years, if you haven't wrecked the car or it hasn't proved to be a lemon, I'm going to repossess it. Are you happy about that?
Of course not. At that point, you have a great car, it will cost you more to buy a new one, you could sell it to someone else, but I just take it away from you for nothing. You're not happy, even though you got three good years out of the car.
Guest
12:53
Why are opt-outs so hard for people to get? Pretty easy concept, though there's more to it than "team's are dumb for giving them."
Dave Cameron
12:54
Right. The opt-out can be fine if you offset it by paying the player less. It's a benefit to the player, but that doesn't mean that benefit can't be removed from the AAV of the deal, or by cutting a year off the back-end or something. There are plenty of ways to compensate for including an opt-out to not make any deal including one stupid. But the opt-out itself is never good for the team.
Guest
12:54
How many more elite yrs do you anticipate from Price, and how bad will he be towards the end of the deal?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I'd guess another 2 high-level years, then a few above average ones, then some injured time.
Buff
12:55
How much activity do you foresee at the winter meetings next week? Specifically, how likely are teams like the Rox, Reds, and Brewers to make major moves toward a rebuild?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I think next week could be bananas. So much stuff still to come, and no one wants to do any of this at Christmas time.
Bill Haywood
12:56
I went to Wake, big fan of Sweet Potatoes. Do they still serve their spaghetti with fried chicken in it? The rumors I saw had a proposed Wilson Contreras and Billy McKinney for Shelby Miller; which package would you prefer to give up if you were the Cubs?
Dave Cameron
12:56
They just swapped out their spaghetti for a different pasta dish with a sweet potato pesto; it's what my wife got when we went there, and it was awesome. I don't think Braves sell Miller that lightly.
grumbleshoes
12:57
I'd be happy about it if I had $5000 in payments remaining on the car and the car was about to break down, and there was a market of car-buyers that historically overpayed for similar cars.
Dave Cameron
12:57
Seriously? If you had a car that someone would give you $7500 for, and you owed $5K on it, you'd be happy to just have it be taken away from you?
Tomo
12:58
Something seems wrong when teams are so happy to pay for dead years at end of a contract. Inflation and the value of a dollar over time I know, but even so, it's a weird system when they are knowingly writing off such a large chunk of money.
Dave Cameron
12:59
Just think of it as deferred money then. The Red Sox are hoping to get five good seasons out of Price, and then deferred $60 million of his cost to reduce their present expenses.
MLB fan
12:59
What free agent do you think is most likely to linger later into the offseason unsigned
Dave Cameron
12:59
Ian Kennedy
1:00
Alright, off to get some work done this afternoon. Thanks for the chat, everyone.
We'll do a bunch of these next week from Nashville.
Enjoy the craziness of the next 10 days or so.
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