Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:07
Sorry for being a few minutes late.
We'll get this thing fired up now.
Pat
12:08
Does Cashman have more moves in him?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I would think so. I'd imagine they'll end up as players for whichever free agent SP ends up looking for a discounted deal in late January or early February.
Pat
12:09
What would it take for the nationals to part with Joe Ross?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Probably a good amount. I'm not sure what their motivation to trade him would be.
GB
12:09
If the O's don't resign Davis or another outfielder, do they work on a Machado extension ASAP?
Dave Cameron
12:10
I don't think the two have much to do with each other. Machado is probably less likely to re-sign if he feels like the team isn't making moves to keep the other good players on the roster, in fact; it might cost more to re-sign him right after Davis leaves than letting him wait for a bit and get away from that memory.
Q-Ball
12:11
As a Cubs fan, am I wrong in thinking that the Cubs are the only team in the NL Central that has improved this offseason? Or is that Cub-colored glasses? Pirates and Cards have lost some key players, and Brewers/Reds aren't even pretending to contend anymore.
Dave Cameron
12:11
No, I think it's pretty clear that the Cubs have separated themselves from the pack this winter.
Scott
12:11
Dave, are you doing anything special for New Years?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Early dinner with the in-laws and then hanging out at home while the baby sleeps. If you want excitement, don't have a kid.
Scott
12:12
Do you think the Yankees should shop Andrew Miller? Personally, I think they need to stick with those three. It will make it a lot easier on that staff and maybe they won't need to sign another starter.
Dave Cameron
12:13
There are diminishing returns to loading up on your relievers because there are only so many high leverage innings to go around, so if they can get good value for Miller, it's probably worth considering. But keeping all three isn't a bad outcome either.
Q-Ball
12:13
I really, really enjoyed the first couple prospect pieces by Dan Farnsworth. Are we going to see the whole league though? They look like a ton of work, just worried I won't see my team :(
Dave Cameron
12:14
Dan got hit with a particularly nasty strand of the flu, but you'll see the prospect reports start rolling out again next week.
Christian
12:14
With the emphasis on player opt outs this year, would you take that as a strong indication that agents think the next CBA will be favorable to the players? It seems most of these opt outs are hitting right after it would likely take effect.
Dave Cameron
12:15
I'd bet that the uncertainty surrounding what the luxury tax will look like is probably part of it. If the luxury tax goes up a lot, and it drives teams at the top end of the payroll tier to start spending more, then the guys who got opt-outs are more likely to get raises.
_David_
12:16
Am I correct that replacement level WAR is around 43, so the depth charts have the Mariners as about an 80 win team?
Dave Cameron
12:16
We define replacement level at 48.6 WAR per 162 games.
JC
12:17
What's going on with all these FAs not getting signed?
Dave Cameron
12:18
This was a slow developing market for hitters, as a lot of teams seem comfortable going with in-house options or short-term plays rather than paying for offensive upgrades. But these guys will still get paid; it will just take some price adjustments to get some of the bidders on the sideline to start making offers.
Andrew
12:18
What are the Cubs' weaknesses? Rather, how could their season unravel?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Jake Arrieta's arm could break. If Heyward gets hurt, they outfield defense could be a disaster.
Scott
12:20
Is it crazy that I think the Twins have a potential great lineup? There is no doubt that they still need to add to their pitching.
Dave Cameron
12:21
You're probably focusing too much on upside and not enough on what these players are right now. Buxton has a lot of tools but there are few reasons to think he'll hit well in 2016.
Michael Scarn
12:21
Would Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jorge Soler be a win for both sides? Seems like they have roughly equal value and would help both teams maximize their CF-RF personnel.
Dave Cameron
12:21
Yeah, there seems to be a fit there, given the two team's respective rosters.
The Boat
12:22
Holy smokes the Yankees bullpen
Dave Cameron
12:23
It's going to be very good, but it might not actually be better than it was last year. Justin Wilson was fantastic last year, and if Betances/Miller regress at all, replacing Wilson with Chapman will probably just keep things roughly as good as it was in 2015.
The Boat
12:23
Obviously the domestic violence charges are a concern for Chapman, but given how little they gave up, was there any way for the Yankees to say no to this trade? They added 2-3 wins for practically nothing.
Dave Cameron
12:25
It's probably closer to one win. Odds seem to point towards Chapman getting suspended for some period of time, so if it's 25 games, that's 15% of his value. Toss in the fact that there aren't enough high leverage situations for all three of their elite RPs to pitch only in close/late situations, and the upgrade is going to be a bit smaller than it would be for another team.
Lucas
12:26
Does fWAR for NL relieve pitchers factor in the fact that they basically never face pitchers? It seems inaccurate to use the NL run scoring environment when it's depressed by pitchers hitting.
Dave Cameron
12:26
Yes, there's a league adjustment built in.
Charlie
12:26
What do you think of the Mets signing De Aza? Especially considering the fact that he probably can't play CF?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Lagares is good enough to be the regular CF, so getting a guy to split time with him was a better idea than benching him.
Q-Ball
12:27
Eno Sarris suggested 2 weeks ago the Pirates should think out of the box and sign John Jaso. Did a Pirates intern show Huntington that article? Is Eno a genius? Seriously, do you know if any FOs get ideas from your blog?
Dave Cameron
12:28
There's no way the Pirates hadn't considered that idea before Eno wrote the piece. Teams spend months planning out their off-seasons, discussing all kinds of scenarios.
The Dude of NY
12:29
How to you say wOBA in verbal communication? Is it pronounced "Woba," with a long o (?), or is each letter said out loud like an acronym?
Dave Cameron
12:29
I say woah-buh
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