Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
powered byJotCast
TF Fredrik
12:30
What is the possibility of having a true dynasty again? One that wins 100+ games regularly and is odds on favorite to win World Series every year. How possible is this in baseballs current landscape i.e. Smarter front offices, no more ‘spend as you like’ on the draft, lots of money coming in for pretty much all teams.
Dave Cameron
12:31
It's probably unlikely in the current era. The flood of TV money has lifted the bottom-tier franchises up much higher than the extra money has helped the top-tier franchises, so the gap between them is a lot smaller than it used to be.
The Dude of NY
12:31
In the short term, would the White Sox be better off signing Gordon, Upton or Cespedes?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Probably Gordon. Long-term, depends on costs.
The Boat
12:32
It's been suggested that Chapman and similarly elite relievers are worth as much as a #2 starter. Do you buy it? Who is the best team in the AL East after that trade?
Dave Cameron
12:32
No, that's silly.
The Dude of NY
12:33
I asked August this yesterday but I am curious on your take: are the Nationals a better team with Murphy or Phillips?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Murphy.
Zonk
12:33
Where does Dexter Fowler fit best? Giants?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Yeah, that feels like a decent landing spot for him.
lloyd
12:34
What is the relationship between minor league ownership and major league ownership? I don't understand what it means when a team purchases a contract of a minor leaguer. Thanks!
Dave Cameron
12:36
The "purchased a contract" terminology just means that the player is being placed on the 40 man roster. Some minor leaguers are already on the 40 man, so they are "recalled" when they are brought to the majors, but if a minor leaguer who isn't on the 40 man is going to be called up, he has to be added to the 40 man (and placed into the MLBPA) first. It doesn't have anything to do with ownership of major/minor league franchises.
R
12:37
I'm 24, don't have any debt from school, and make a decent wage (with 10% going towards my 401K). Are there any other major things for me to do financially? Other than avoid dumb purchases?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Open a Roth IRA and max it out.
Joe
12:38
Trying to be a level-headed Reds fan.. Is the start of the rebuild really as bad as media/fans seem to make it ? I know circumstances with Chapman and Frazier's second half.. but farm system seems to be top 5-10..
Dave Cameron
12:39
The farm system is very heavy on arms, which are pretty risky. Given how good the rest of the NL Central is, they can't just count on getting 2-3 good pitchers out of their current crop and hope that brings them back to contending status. They need to develop some star-level position players.
Copp
12:39
Could you ever be BEST friends with someone who absolutely hated baseball?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Sure. Almost none of the people I hang out with in NC are baseball fans.
Erich
12:42
Top 3 dog toys for Liberty?
Dave Cameron
12:42
I got a two pack of bears with a squeaky toy for stomachs at Costco a few months ago. She's a huge fan of them. Besides that, just random balls.
Andrew
12:42
How far will the prices drop for Upton / Yoenis? Any chance these guys sign for less than $100M?
Dave Cameron
12:43
No. If the price got down to $100M, there'd be plenty of teams on the sidelines who decided to make a value play.
Ryan
12:43
How much of his defensive "value" does Heyward lose moving to center field?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Probably not much.
Alan
12:44
Any thoughts on the Nats infield and where/when Trea Turner could make his way into the lineup?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Turner displaces Espinosa in June, probably.
WAR
12:44
Can you give some input some input on the cost of Wins? Why is 1 WAR worth about $7-$8 million? Seems way too high considering some team WARS were over 50.
Dave Cameron
12:46
There are 1,000 WAR per season to be allocated across the league. MLB spends about $3.5 billion per year on player salaries, so, easy division says there's about $3.5 million per WAR in the game. But then, you have a ton of pre-arb and arbitration eligible players who are producing a lot of value and getting paid hardly anything. So, the money that teams aren't paying to the Kris Bryants and Jose Fernandez's of the world gets reallocated to free agents.
Compton
12:47
There's been a bit of debate over the stars-and-scrubs model vs. the depth model of team building. But looking at the Cubs ZiPS, are they going for the elusive stars-and-depth model?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Why choose when you can have both, apparently.
Dale
12:49
The Reds basically gave Chapman away, why not hold onto him for the July deadline?
Dave Cameron
12:50
I talked about this a little bit on the podcast this morning, but the only rationale I can come up with is they know more about the domestic violence charge than the rest of the league, and think his value might go down further as more information comes out. If that's not true, though, then I don't see why they didn't just hold onto him, let him serve whatever suspension is coming, then flip him mid-summer.
Dan
12:50
Given the choice, would you prefer J. Heyward at 3/78 or 8/184?
Dave Cameron
12:50
The latter, but they only got him at 8/$184M because they gave him the chance to make it 3/$78M.
Luke
12:51
How would you set up the qualifying offer system?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Assuming i couldn't just get rid of it? I'd do something like a tiered system. Want a first round pick as compensation? You have to make a 3 year QO. 2nd round pick = 2 year QO. 3rd round pick = 1 year QO. No real reason Ian Kennedy and David Price should cost the same to sign.
Forsyth
12:53
According to Jeff Sullivan, the replacement level WAR is 47.7.
Dave Cameron
12:54
Jeff is right, actually. The 48.6 is what we used to use before we unified our replacement level with B-R. That number was stuck in my head. But it's .300, or 47.7 per 162 games. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/unifying-replacement-level/
Andrew
12:54
When you say price adjustments, how big of a fall do you think it might be for Upton or Cespedes?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I could see them signing for $120M.
Connecting...