Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Bork
12:55
"What could happen to the Cubs?" See: Washington Nationals
Dave Cameron
12:56
Yeah, no team is immune to injuries or underperformance. The Cubs aren't a lock to make the playoffs. They're just the best bet of anyone in baseball.
Zonk
12:56
Local Cubs beat writer says Cubs are trying to acquire Andrew Miller. While that would be awesome for the Cubs, I shudder to think what the cost would be. Is there a trade to be made there? I have a hard time seeing how they match up.
Dave Cameron
12:59
Yeah, I don't see a great fit there either. Have to think Yanks would want someone like Hendricks, and Cubs shouldn't do that.
Erich
12:59
Going off your answer about Chapman and the amount of high leverage innings, is leverage baked into WAR calculations?
Dave Cameron
12:59
Yes.
The Gyorko Store Called
12:59
Is the market for local broadcast rights still going up? If its contract was up now, how much would a big market team like the Cubs get? Or a small market team like the Royals?
Dave Cameron
1:00
We don't really know. There hasn't been that many new TV deals struck lately, and with ESPN's ratings crashing and dragging down Disney's stock, it will be interesting to see if other networks get a bit gunshy about betting big on live sports getting them significant payouts from cable operators.
Javier Baez
1:00
Where do I fit in on the new look Cubs? I've been playing CF this winter, but are they really considering me there or are they going to trade me away?
Dave Cameron
1:00
Probably trade bait.
Ray
1:01
Are Dodgers fans and some national writers over-reacting to the Dodgers not re-signing Zack Greinke and the improvements the Diamondbacks and Giants made to the rotation this offseason?
Dave Cameron
1:01
Yes.
Skore
1:01
Do you see Cespedes as a riskier buy than Upton because of the plate discipline? Or the opposite due to defense?
Dave Cameron
1:01
Riskier due to age.
Joe
1:01
What are the reds doing? They have essentially given up Frazier and Chapman for nothing. This has been a disaster start to their rebuild.
Dave Cameron
1:02
Peraza and Davis aren't nothing. But they're clearly choosing proximity to the majors over upside, which is a questionable choice.
The Dude of NY
1:02
In 2015, Jose Bautista's BABIP was *lower* than his AVG. How is that possible?
Dave Cameron
1:02
HRs aren't counted in BABIP.
1:03
And the two stats have different denominators. They're not really measuring the same thing.
Sara
1:03
I am puzzled by what the Dodgers are doing this year (off season) do you feel that they are going in the right direction?
Dave Cameron
1:04
Yeah, they're fine. They'll probably get Maeda, make a few trades, and head into the season as an easy favorite in the NL West.
The Gyorko Store Called
1:05
Should Justin Masterson be a full-time reliever? He seems to fit the profile that would play up in the pen.
Dave Cameron
1:05
Yeah, at this point, it's probably the logical spot for him.
Shooty Babbitt
1:06
What's your take on Joey Gallo? Are the Ks too high for him to be a force in MLB? Will he be a bust? Or Russell Branyan?
Dave Cameron
1:06
Upside is Chris Davis, downside is Branyan, reality is probably in between.
Matt purke
1:06
What are the other main inputs into pitcher WAR besides FIP?
Dave Cameron
1:07
Innings, park effects, league effects, leverage, infield flies generated.
Joe
1:08
Run Prevention: roughly 50% rotation, 25% pen, 25% defense?
Dave Cameron
1:08
60/25/15, maybe.
PP Jutz
1:08
When players like Heyward and Trout take less money to take team friendly deals, do they influence the rest of the market downward? If so, is taking less money generally frowned upon by the players association?
Dave Cameron
1:09
Heyward didn't take a team friendly deal; he took less guaranteed money to get an earlier opt-out. Trout's deal was a little different, and I'm sure the union wasn't thrilled with it.
Johnny5Alive
1:10
since the mets FO is apparently only wanting guys on really short deals (rumored offered Cespedes a 2 or 3 year deal), why not just do the opt-out route. High AAV for 2 or 3 years, and hope the player opts out?
Dave Cameron
1:10
Because a long-term deal with an opt-out is still a long-term deal.
Mike_C
1:10
Does the MLB get too many years of Control over young players? Would we see more positive or negative effects from allowing players to declare for free agency after 5 years of service?
Dave Cameron
1:11
I think there's an argument to be made that the union should fight pretty hard to lower the service time required for pitchers to reach free agency. So many of them break down before they get to the open market, and the system is skewed against them pretty heavily. But the league isn't going to want to give up the pre-arb/arb system, especially because it's one of the primary ways that lower revenue teams can compete, and the league has worked for 20 years to get to this kind of parity.
Paul
1:12
Does Matt Kemp have positive trade value after a decent (and healthy) 2015? This would seem to be the time to move off of him if possible.
Dave Cameron
1:13
You're referring to the Matt Kemp who had a 109 wRC+ and +0.4 WAR? He had a bad year, and it's still one of the very worst contracts in baseball.
Mike
1:13
lots of snow finally on the East coast....do you have any ski plans this winter?
Dave Cameron
1:14
Probably not this year, unfortunately. Babies are a lot of work.
Caveman Jones
1:15
Are you saying leverage is a part of pitcher FIP for both relievers and starters?
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