Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:21
That's the weirdest thing about this tanking narrative getting pushed right now; we're literally in the time of the greatest parity in baseball history. It's so clearly agenda-driven, and not fact-driven, as to be humorous.
Poe Cameron
12:22
Which team do you think has the largest possible variance in their record? Like, good win a lot, or lose a lot, or anything.
Dave Cameron
12:23
Maybe the Twins. If Buxton, Sano, and Berrios all play up, they could be a contender, but if those kids struggle, that's a 70 win team at best.
Jack
12:23
Are you on board with what appears to be the clear consensus at this point-- that the Qualifying Offer was probably ill-conceived?
Dave Cameron
12:24
I'd say ill-designed more than ill-conceived. It was conceived as a tax to hold down FA spending on some players. It's doing exactly that.
Sammy
12:24
Why would the Dodgers move Ethier? Do they really believe that much in CC?
Dave Cameron
12:25
He gets 10-5 rights in April, so this is their last chance to trade him, probably.
Yancy from Fort Myers
12:25
Which team do you see as the most likely trade partner for the Rays' Desmond Jennings?
Dave Cameron
12:26
I could see a fit in Cleveland or Baltimore.
Graham
12:26
Greinke is considered one of the brightest players in the game, but signed a long-term deal with a team making disastrous long-term moves. Does $200 million make that trade-off palatable for him, or did he rush into the marriage and will soon have regrets?
Dave Cameron
12:27
From his perspective, there are probably two options; the team wins and he gets to enjoy that success, or they lose and he gets traded in a couple of years as they rebuild, probably to a contender in need of a veteran SP. Either way, he'll end up on a winning team and maximize his income.
Jack
12:27
If you're a DBacks fan, scary to think that even if 2016 ends up a massive disappointment, TLR/Stew figure to have a lotta leash still, right? Reasoning being, Stew is TLR's guy, and TLR ain't goin anywhere.
Dave Cameron
12:28
Yeah, the problem goes above those two, though they aren't helping matters. But the fact that the team had a chance to modernize their thinking of letting Kevin Towers go, and went this route, speaks volumes to the people who are doing the hiring there.
Yovanni Gallardo
12:28
Orioles were a .500 team last year while missing big chunks of the season from Schoop, Weiters and Hardy. With those 3 healthy, modest bounce backs from Gonzalez and Tillman, and improvement in LF with Kim, is it so hard to see them as an improved team?
Dave Cameron
12:29
We're just going to pretend that Wei-Yin Chen didn't leave? We're going to give Chris Davis another +6 WAR season? We're going to expect Zach Britton and Darren O'Day to run sub-2.00 ERAs again?
JR
12:30
August mentioned yesterday that he thinks Steven Souza is "probably going to start the year in the minors". Do you agree?
Dave Cameron
12:30
Nope.
Nelson
12:30
Do the Rockies think that Mcgee will have a higher trade value at the deadline than Dickerson? Is that correct thinking?
Dave Cameron
12:31
My guess is that they don't put a lot of value in Dickerson, looking at him as an injury prone defensive liability who needs to be platooned. The problem is that you could use that same description on Carlos Gonzalez, and they seem to be in love with him...
Aaron
12:31
Re: Laurila's post earlier today, it seems like all of baseball would love to see David Ross manage when he's done playing. Who would you like to see manage a big league team?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Yasiel Puig. That'd be fun.
Yancy from Fort Myers
12:31
What are your thoughts on hummus, generally speaking?
Dave Cameron
12:32
It's fine. I don't love it, but I don't hate it.
Jeremy
12:32
Are any changes planned for improving the depth charts, and thus the playoff odds, this year? In late August or early September, the Mets depth charts projected a decent number of PA left for players at DH, despite them not having any games left in AL parks. Also, when the Nats would lose, their ROS W% would increase to absurd levels, which seemed like they had a floor for wins from before the season that was never adjusted as the season went on.
Dave Cameron
12:33
The DH spot for NL teams on our depth charts includes PH, which teams still do even in NL parks. And no, there's no pre-determined win floor that forces a teams ROS Win% up after they lose.
I'm sorry that you didn't like the forecasts for your favorite team, but that doesn't mean the system is broken.
Dave
12:34
The Reds have taken a lot of criticism but they seem to be stockpiling a bunch of talented arms, if Jocketty is smart enough to trade the right extra arms for bats could the rebuild go a lot faster then what many people are expecting?
Dave Cameron
12:34
Why are we assuming that Jocketty is smarter than everyone else?
WillieBloomquistButtCyst
12:34
Should the A's tear it down if things look grim in July?
Dave Cameron
12:34
I don't know what they really have to trade that would constitute a tear down. Gray, obviously, and Reddick if he doesn't sign an extension, but I don't know that beyond those two, there's a ton of trade-value pieces there.
Matt
12:35
So Dave, I would like to follow up on Julio Teheran. Last week I supposed that Teheran for Benintendi, Vazquez, and Brian Johnson was a fair trade. If we take your cynical view and assume that Teheran posts WARs of 2.5 each year over the life of his contract, at $8M per WAR, he is worth $100M. Subtract the actual value of his contract ($40.6M), and his surplus value is roughly $60. According to your research 2 years ago, the value of a hitting prospect in the 30-50 range (which is where Benintendi is generally ranked) is roughly $20M. Johnson's value - as a 30-50 ranked pitcher - is somewhere around $18.7M. So Johnson and Benintendi are worth a combined $38.7M. Vazquez is certainly not worth $21.3M to even out those values. So I posit the trade again: Benintendi, Johnson, and Vazquez for Teheran. Even if Teheran is worth 2 WAR over the next 5 years, the estimated surplus value ($40M) justifies the Sox trading Benintendi and Johnson or Vazquez for Teheran. Seems pretty fair, no?
Dave Cameron
12:36
You don't take a pitcher's 2016 projection, then assign exactly that performance to him for each of the next five years.
Pitchers get hurt, and get worse even when they don't get hurt. That Teheran is an average-ish pitcher now means he has little long-term value, even with his below-market extension.
WillieBloomquistButtCyst
12:37
Is Klentak or MacPhail running the show in Philadelphia?
Dave Cameron
12:37
MacPhail is the boss, Klentak is in charge of day to day operations.
12:38
That's the common setup in a lot of places now.
Rick
12:39
How does Lazarito make sense for the Braves? He'd have to wait until July 2nd to sign, or they wouldn't be able to go all out as rumored in the 2016-17 period. Also, that would go against their strategy of trading for slots for the 2015-16 period so that they didn't go over their pool.
Dave Cameron
12:40
Well, Jesse Sanchez reported yesterday that they have a private workout scheduled for him this weekend, and he's expected to sign next week. I was just connecting the dots.
Portis
12:40
Is Verlander gonna be a top 10 pitcher in the AL?
Dave Cameron
12:40
He might not be a top 10 pitcher in the AL Central.
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