Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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ZGleftme
12:41
Thoughts on Rosenthal's column - you think Segura can bounce back and help salvage the trade for the DBacks?? Even if he does get close to 2013 levels, is that enough justification for what Arizona gave up??
Dave Cameron
12:42
Well, sure, if he has a +3.5 WAR season, then it's a good move for AZ. But while I'm sure that personal issues can affect performance, I just don't see evidence that he has the skills necessary to be a good big leaguer. 60% GB% = no power. His approach = no walks. His contact rate is only slightly above average. That's not a combination that will lead to offensive production.
Cardsjason
12:42
What team is Lucroy on opening day?
Dave Cameron
12:42
I still think the Rangers make the most sense.
Hank G.
12:43
Would it make sense for the Nationals to go after Tyler Clippard?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Yeah, it seems like a potential fit for a reunion.
Joe
12:44
Is there anything the Orioles can realistically do to be actual AL East contenders?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Hope that BOS/TOR/NYY/TB suffer a lot of injuries.
Jimmy
12:45
Hi Dave, what would it take for someone currently not working in a baseball FO to get a job like the one posted yesterday for the Jays? (Manager - Baseball Analytics). I assume the most qualified candidates are already in baseball FO's. Thanks
Dave Cameron
12:47
There have been a lot of outside MLB hires into the league this year, since teams are ramping up their R+D departments this winter. Jay Sartori came back from Apple to work for the Tigers. The Phillies hired an analyst from Google. The Angels hired a couple of guys who didn't have MLB team experience, and had written online mostly. The other day, a GM asked me for rec for an analyst position they have open, and I had to tell him I was running low on names to suggest because the hiring spree has picked most of the low-hanging fruit. So, yes, if you want to work in baseball right now, absolutely apply; there's a talent shortage at the moment compared to the supply/demand we've seen in past years.
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12:47
Why do you see the NL East as a coin flip between the Mets and Nats. Granted I'm a Mets fan but I don't see how they aren't clear favorites over the Nats. I feel like I can detach myself and be pretty objective. The Mets have a better starting five, better rotation depth, a better bullpen and significantly better position player depth. Other than having Harper, by far the best player on either team, and a much better defense, I don't see any other advantages for the Nats. I see a Nats team that needs literally half it's everyday players - Rendon, Werth, Zimmerman and Ramos to be healthy and bounce back.
Dave Cameron
12:48
I feel like maybe you aren't detaching yourself as well as you think.
Bork
12:48
Orioles have a chance to go full Phillies in a year or two? They even have a slugging 1B on an enormous contract too!
Dave Cameron
12:48
Machado will give them a higher floor.
Nightshift
12:49
Boy Jonah Keri is very bullish on Tai Walker, thinking he can be better than Felix your thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Better than Felix next year? That's possible, if Felix keeps declining. Better than peak-Felix? Nope.
Whitney H.
12:49
in David Laurila's article earlier today on potential future managers I noticed that David Ross' name was brought up kind of a lot. Also getting mentions were Dustin Pedroia, and even a Jonny Gomes. Those guys were all part of Boston WS team that seemed to consistently outperform expectations. Pure coincidence or do you think there's anything to it?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Pedroia's been on teams that have underperformed more than overperformed, no?
Urban
12:51
Parity in the AL. Not in the NL.
Dave Cameron
12:52
It's one sport. 24 MLB teams have at least some shot of making the playoffs this year, and two of the ones that don't are there because they keep foolishly trying to go for it rather than start the necessary rebuild (COL/SD). There are 4/30 teams in MLB rebuilding right now. The idea that teams are seeing the current incentives, deciding that being bad on purpose is better than trying to win, and tearing their teams down, is just not true.
FA Baseball Lover/Capable Writer
12:53
Give me an assignment to write a piece for FG, I will submit Sunday, you will subsequently hire me. Go...
Dave Cameron
12:54
"For my piece, I will provide you with a full, unfettered feed to 2015 Statcast data, with full approval from MLB. Let's get right to the data..."
RMR
12:55
Dave, re: your comments on taking a job in baseball, do you think that MLB teams are hurting themselves from a front office talent standpoint by refusing to be competitive financially/lifestyle-wise with other industries or is the demand for jobs in the sport is simply so high that MLB teams can get away with it indefinitely?
Dave Cameron
12:56
I think, as teams staff up, the pay will increase to some degree. We've already seen that a bit as guys who were at analyst level a year or two ago are now directors or managers, and have gotten pay bumps that go along with the new titles. So the increase in entry-level hiring is pushing up the wages for guys who might have been stuck in those jobs for longer by forcing promotions for the tier of guys hired a few years ago. But I think the requirement in hours will always be there.
Yancy from Fort Myers
12:57
How many times have you seen The Force Awakens?
Dave Cameron
12:57
Once. Well, I saw the original Star Wars movie too, and it was the same film, so twice, I guess.
The Average Sports Fan
12:57
Re: Qualifying Offer. What do you think Players would have to give in next CBA to get rid of it?
Dave Cameron
12:57
International draft.
That's what Manfred really wants.
ZS
12:58
Considering service time/cost, who would you prefer? Inciarte, Baez, or Soler?
Dave Cameron
12:58
Inciarte.
Though Soler isn't too far behind.
Marc
12:58
With data becoming a bigger and bigger part of the game, how hard is it to find a real - and valuable - market inefficiency in the game these days. Will we ever see anything again like the Moneyball OBP revolution?
Dave Cameron
12:59
I think there are frontiers to be explored that will bring even larger shifts in the game. Health is the big one. We'll eventually look back at our current system and think of how many arms could have been saved had we known (thing we don't know yet).
TKDC
1:00
Without just looking at FG odds, what are the chances that one the bad NL teams (Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, Padres) makes the playoffs? Better than 50%?
Dave Cameron
1:00
No, much less. I'd say 5%.
1:01
The Braves, Phillies, Reds, and Brewers all have approximately 0.1% playoff odds. Even if they get hot in April or May, they still won't go for it, since they're in full on rebuild mode. The Padres and Rockies could luck their way into the NL West somehow, but it would take some extraordinary circumstances.
MoreCowbell
1:01
I don't think I've ever seen an offseason as quiet for the Yankees as this one. Dose Cashman have another big move up his sleeve or are Chapman/Hicks the main additions?
Dave Cameron
1:01
Well they got Castro too.
Curtis
1:02
What does King Felix need to add going forward to ensure enshrinement in the HOF?
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