Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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TKDC
12:39
In consideration for the HOF, would you give a primary DH who you think could have theoretically been a decent fielder (Edgar) more credit than one that probably couldn't (Ortiz)?
Dave Cameron
12:39
No, I think you judge them based on what they did, not on what they might have done.
Paul H.
12:40
Thanks for the explanation of base runs above. Can you help me understand what you mean when you talk of "sequencing" with regards to base runs? Is this the idea that you can flip a coin 1000 times and somewhere along the way end up with a run of 10 heads in a row and that is not an identifiable "skill" of the flipper. So that the Royals have simply benefited from luck in beating their base runs projection?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Sequencing is the term we use to describe the ordering of events. 1B-1B-HR is three runs; HR-1B-1B is only one if the plays following the 1Bs aren't positive. So you can get wildly different results from the same types of plays, and there's not a lot of evidence that teams can control how well they order their events. We mostly evaluate the quantity of results, not their order.
Chris
12:42
Who would you prefer to build a team around: Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant? How much of your answer is based on defense?
Dave Cameron
12:42
I'd take Bryant, but love both.
David
12:42
How would the Indian's grade change since they didn't sign Jackson? I have a hard time seeing them earn anything more than a D.
Dave Cameron
12:43
Yeah, I'd put them in the same group as the Astros as teams that missed an opportunity to add valuable wins.
Thomas
12:43
how to best get an question answered in here? if you don't answer is it safe to assume you saw and passed or do we send multiple times?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Just ask once; if I see the same question over and over, I refuse to answer out of the don't-reward-spam principle.
ken m
12:44
when you start running low on oil, is there another robot that helps you out, or is there a "human" that you require to assist you?
Dave Cameron
12:44
It's 2016; I'm solar powered now.
Dooduh
12:45
Understood re: positional talent of DBs and Marlins, but not rotations. Should be big advantage DBs there.
Dave Cameron
12:46
Our depth charts have ARZ at +12.6 WAR from their SPs, MIA at +11.8.
Gareth
12:46
More WAR in 2016 - Lindor, Correa, Seager or Boegarts?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Correa
Sir Nerdlington
12:47
When do you think the next CBA is finalized? Odds of a work stoppage?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Everyone thinks it's going to get done, which is encouraging. My guess is they announce an agreement in October.
Ben
12:48
You recently called the Dodgers the top Pitching staff in baseball in here. Has that opinion changed much?
Dave Cameron
12:48
The Anderson injury dents them a bit, and if Ryu isn't healthy by May, I'd put them behind the Mets.
But they're still really good.
Ryan
12:49
Would the Cubs be foolish to extend Arrieta right now? His stock can hardly climb any higher than it currently sits after his least season, and they already have him under control for this year and next. Why buy out future years when he'll be 32+ at this point?
Dave Cameron
12:50
Depends on price, but yeah, I wouldn't be in a rush to lock up a guy who threw ~275 innings last year and is under control for two more years. Let him prove he's not going to have any negative effects from last year's workload; it's not like his price is going to go up much.
The Average Sports Fan
12:50
How much rope do you think the Dodgers front has? They have spent a ton of money for not that much return on the field. Missing playoffs or first round loss and ownership get antsy?
Dave Cameron
12:51
They've won the division three years in a row, they have the best farm system in baseball, and they're likely to win 90+ again this year. At some point, the narrative that the Dodgers aren't insanely successful is going to die.
Tom
12:51
Rangers, Orioles, Royals, Diamondbacks: they all have sub-.500 projections, and yet they also have playoff hopes. Which is most likely to beat their projections and make the post-season?
Dave Cameron
12:51
Royals.
Nick
12:52
Do the Indians get any credit for resisting trading any of their great pitchers on even greater contracts for what they viewed as underwhelming returns? Or do you think they should have bit the bullet and traded one of them to try to strengthen their clown show of an outfield?
Dave Cameron
12:53
I don't think those were their only two options.
Dooduh
12:54
Yeah Shelby Miller entering his prime and the projection has him slipping from 3.4 to 1.9 fWar doesn't look right TBH.
Dave Cameron
12:54
Pitchers don't age like hitters, and he's not posting a 6% HR/FB rate again.
Matt
12:54
KC royals over/under 85 wins?
Dave Cameron
12:55
I'd peg them as a 80ish win team about now, so under.
Ernie Camacho
12:55
Dave, your ongoing exploration of BaseRuns overachievers is fantastic. Based on some of the comments to those pieces and questions in the chats, I'd suggest a new glossary page all about BaseRuns with an intro post (that includes links to Tango's seminal posts from years ago about how runs are created).
Dave Cameron
12:55
Yeah, we definitely need to do a better job of explaining the concept.
Jerry
12:56
Dave, come on man. Dodgers went from best rotation to second, and it's because Brett Anderson went down? I get that Kershaw is good, but he's not as good as 2 pitchers because he can only win you 1 game. His wins don't count for 2. Help me understand this because unless Kershaw faces other teams 1 and 2 every week, doesn't help.
Dave Cameron
12:58
Think of it this way; say you win 70% of Kershaw's starts, because he's that great, so you go 24-10 in his 34 starts. But a normal "good" starter, you only win 60% of their starts, so you go 20-14 in their starts. A team with two good starters will go 40-28 in the games where those two guys pitch, but if you have Kershaw, you only need to have a guy (or guys) go 16-18 in their 34 starts to come to the same place as having two good starters.
Colin
12:59
What's the difference between Baseruns and pythagorean record?
Dave Cameron
1:00
Pythag starts with RS/RA, and creates an expected record based on that. BaseRuns starts with the individual plays (1B/2B/3B/HR, etc...) and estimates RS/RA, then we use pythagenpat to estimate W-L from those estimated RS/RA. So BaseRuns is entirely context-neutral, while pythag is context-specific in terms of turning baserunners into runs, but context-neutral in turning runs into wins.
1:01
Alright, have to go write. Thanks for hanging out this week everyone.
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