Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Wednesday, everyone. Unless you're Matt Harvey, I guess.
Joe S
12:01
Has to be asked... What would you have done with Harvey?
Dave Cameron
12:03
This is the kind of thing that's basically impossible to say we know better from the outside. Maybe Harvey wouldn't respond well to doing the phantom-injury thing, and maybe he's just got too much pride to try to figure things out in the minors. I think, in this case, the Mets just know more than we do, so it's not really worth saying that we'd do things differently.
Curtis
12:03
What is the most impressive thing about the Mariners hot start? How good their record would be if they could actually be .500 at home?
Dave Cameron
12:04
The bullpen has probably been the biggest factor. It looked like it could have been a disaster, but they're getting good innings from reclamation projects like Nuno, Montgomery, and Peralta. And it looks like they stole Nick Vincent from SD.
Erik
12:04
What is the logic behind allowing some types of draft pick trading but not others? Do you see this changing after the next CBA? Or is it somehow in the interests of either the players or the owners to keep it this way?
Dave Cameron
12:05
The allowance of trading competitive balance picks was a trial balloon, I think, to see how it would work without overhauling the system at once. My guess is that we still won't see the wholesale trading of draft picks in the next CBA, but maybe the one after that.
Kurt
12:05
As a met fan, should I deeply concerned about Harvey and DeGrom, or happy that they still somehow lead the mlb in pitching WAR.
Dave Cameron
12:06
Deeply concerned is probably overstating things, but you have plenty of legitimate reasons for worry. This is why building a team around a pitching staff is scary.
tom kim
12:06
Can rich hill really keep this up for the ROS? It's ridiculous.
Dave Cameron
12:07
I think he'll be a good pitcher until he gets hurt. And no one knows when that will be.
Dave, Petaluma
12:07
Congrats on the pending move to Bend. I lived there for 13 years, during which I served for awhile as the president of the most recent pro ballclub in town. I still miss the people and setting of Bend. Changing subjects, I need Greensboro advice. Two friends and I meet each summer for a week of minor league ball. This year, we begin in Greensboro. I need a pub for an afternoon beer session and a diner for a hearty breakfast before heading to Danville. I have Gibb's Hundred and Iron Hen. Can I do better?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I'm probably the wrong guy to offer pub advice, given that I don't drink, which might get me a lot of weird looks in Bend as well. But for breakfast, I might suggest Smith Street Diner. Iron Hen is very small and can feel cramped, and while the food is good, it's more of the "here's something good we made with some ancient grain that we sourced from a dude on the side of the road" kind of place. Smith Street is more classic southern breakfast.
Erik
12:10
The Phillies are projected for a worse rest of season winning % than the Braves. Are the Phillies actually the worst team in the league?
Dave Cameron
12:11
I don't know if they're the worst, but they're definitely still in the mix. Their BaseRuns record is 19-27, so the hot start is a total mirage, even with the excellent pitching. The Braves suck, but they have a few guys who should play better, like Inciarte. I don't know who you'd look at on the Phillies and say "there's improvement coming here", but you can look at half the roster and see regression coming.
keith
12:11
Marco Estrada...does he keep this going or are you expecting major regression?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He won't run a 2.56 ERA, but the strikeouts and GBs are both up, which is an encouraging sign. I think he's still more of an average pitcher than a really good one, but maybe he's closer to above average than we thought.
BK
12:12
Michael Saunders is currently a top 20 wRC+ bat, but with a sky high BABIP. Still, can he be an impact bat over course of 162, or will this come crashing down eventually?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He's not going to keep this up. League average hitter, maybe a tick better.
leonys martin
12:13
what is a realistic base case scenario for me considering my new approach/swing? I'm thinking I can get to 25 HR's, 20 SB's, .270 average, .350 OBP, .820 OPS. Am I being blind? Also, are we your favorites to win the AL West?
Dave Cameron
12:14
That's way too optimistic. He's running a HR/FB rate over 20%, which is elite slugger territory, and he's not an elite slugger. When the HRs start turning into 2Bs or outs, he's going to look human again. I'd guess he's more of a .700 OPS guy, which is perfectly useful for a good CF in Safeco.
Matt
12:14
So , Dave, how does it feel to be wrong on Julio Teheran? He's been the best pitcher on the planet this May.
Dave Cameron
12:16
Yes, one good month should totally outweigh the fact that he threw 200 mediocre innings last year and his stuff continues to trend the wrong way. The Braves should be trading him as soon as they can find someone to buy into this. He's Shelby Miller 2.0. It's a mirage, and sell high while you can.
RMR
12:16
Jay Bruce is hitting like vintage Jay Bruce. But, if UZR is to be believed, he's fielding like vintage Adam Dunn. How much does that limit his trade value?
Dave Cameron
12:17
It won't help; he's definitely not an asset in the field anymore. But for a team like CHW, that has DH at-bats open, they'll still take him. But the Reds aren't going to get any kind of great return.
Matt
12:17
Do you think Shelby Miller is hurt? His level of bad is pretty incredible.
Dave Cameron
12:18
Could be injury, could be mechanics. Could also just be that Shelby Miller is a mediocre pitcher. His 2016 is just a worse version of what he was in 2014, when the Cardinals wisely got rid of him.
Bbtb
12:18
Do the Padres have any hope of trading Matt Kemp? Or is he the next Ryan Howard? Kemp will soon be taking playing time from (somewhat) interesting prospects.
Dave Cameron
12:18
Depends on how much of the contract they're willing to swallow. He's probably still worth ~$5 to $7M per year as a DH to an AL team.
Will
12:19
Worried about Brantley? I'm concerned his shoulder will affect his production all year.
Dave Cameron
12:19
Yeah, shoulder injuries are no bueno.
Jeff
12:20
Dave, perhaps this would be a "bad for business" kind of question (starting fights you don't want to start), but I would be really interested to get your reaction to Michael Wilbon's piece at The Undefeated about race and analytics in sports. I recognize you won't share his view about the value of analytics, but I would be curious about his claim that the movement towards analytics will have a disproportionately negative impact on minorities, particularly African-Americans. Thanks.
Dave Cameron
12:22
I think it's best to probably just ignore the unwarranted shots at analytics and focus on his overall point, which is that the numbers community is overwhelmingly white. And that's a problem. I'm not smart enough to know how to fix it, but I don't think we should ignore the fact that the baseball nerd community is extremely white, but the population of baseball players and baseball fans is not. It's a real issue.
Schiraldi
12:22
In 2011, three high school pitchers from OK were drafted in the first round: Dylan Bundy (4th overall), Archie Bradley (7th) and Michael Fulmer (44th). Right now, we'd bet on Fulmer having the highest career WAR of the three, right?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Yes.
Poonrod
12:23
You seemed pretty excited about Bryce Harper passing Mike Trout sooner than expected about a month ago as the best player in baseball. Have you reversed your course since then? I haven't heard much about it since the SSS reversed course.
Dave Cameron
12:23
I wrote a piece explicitly saying that Harper had not surpassed Trout at that point, at a time when many others were racing to say that Trout had been dethroned.
Brett W
12:24
You've said in the last 2 chats that the Yankees should trade Miller this year if they can't turn this season around, even though he's controlled. Is the same true of Tanaka then?
Dave Cameron
12:24
Yes, if someone would take the Tanaka deal. Given the remaining commitment, the opt-out, and his health, I'm not sure he'd even get claimed on waivers.
Terry C
12:25
So...what exactly is going on with Harvey? He seems to lose it in the middle innings every start, with a velocity drop and a tendency to groove pitches. How do the Mets proceed?
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