Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:26
He's got a guaranteed deal for a lot of money. I don't think Arte Moreno wants to pay him to sit at home.
But yes, if you take that out of the picture, I think it's probably time for the Angels to go a different direction.
Elton
12:27
If I remember right you predicted that Chapman would get 5 years/$100M. I know the industry values elite relievers highly but that still sounds way too risky to me. Shouldn't teams pursue 80% of his value at a fraction that cost, or do you think it's worth it for big market contenders?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Think of what $100M buys in free agency these days. Is Chapman clearly less valuable than Jeff Samardzija?
The reality is that teams have a ton of money to spend.
Dave
12:28
If you had to start a franchise today, and had to choose between Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts, who would you choose and why?
Dave Cameron
12:28
I'd still take Bryant. I love Mookie, but Bryant's power is a lot easier to see lasting long-term.
Mike
12:29
Hi Dave! Yasmani Grandal hasn't been all that healthy in his tenure with the Dodgers, but when he has, GOOD GOD can he hit! He's trailing others in the WAR category (in fewer games... He still doesn't qualify for the batting title), but we know he's a plus pitch framer. Without totally disregarding his health issues, would you it's crazy to put him up with Posey (who's having his own power-outage issue this year) as an elite catcher?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Yes, that's crazy. Grandal is an above average catcher, but he's nowhere near Posey.
Julio Pepper
12:30
Why don't more teams try to lock players down? Shouldn't the Red Sox have tried to extend Betts and Bogaerts a while ago, or the Orioles after Machado's first 6 win season in 2013?
Dave Cameron
12:30
It takes two. Very possible they were approached and rebuffed.
RichDAnna
12:30
What is your Cubs playoff rotation, assuming Lackey's injury scare is nothing...
Dave Cameron
12:31
Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, with Hammel in the pen.
Alex
12:31
Who should Braves keep for CF, Ender or Mallex?
Dave Cameron
12:31
No real reason to have to choose; not like they have other good OFs fighting for at-bats.
Andrew
12:32
Any predictions for what Edwin Enarnacion might now get in free agency?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Still think he gets a shorter deal. I think I guessed 3/$60M a while back.
Mark Armour
12:33
In your recent Trade Value rankings you had Betts #7 and Rizzo #6 -- no big deal, though you added that there was a "pretty significant gap" between them. Considering Betts is three years younger, has less service time, has a more well-rounded game, is a plus defender and seems to be at least as good a player right now, what accounts for this "significant gap"?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Teams value bats over gloves, so an elite hitting 1B will garner more in trade value than a good all-around player who racks up value through defense and baserunning. But Mookie's hit like 20 homers since I wrote that, so the gap is probably smaller now.
Matt
12:34
I hear people constantly referring to a change in the ball as reason for this, or reason for that. Isn't the baseball a highly controlled part of the MLB? How would the ball change without people knowing it? Is that somehting the MLB would change and not announce? This whole thing just confuses me.
Dave Cameron
12:35
As Alan Nathan noted in his talk at Saber Seminar this weekend, the allowed variance in the COR of the ball is pretty large. Rawlings could have had an equipment change that caused the balls to be manufactured differently, and have it still fall within the acceptable range.
kevinthecomic
12:36
Wouldn't it be relatively easy to find out if the baseball has been juiced this year? I mean, someone has to have a 2015 ball and it's probably easy enough to get a 2016 ball. Then give it to a bunch of scientists to reverse engineer both and see what, if any, differences there are.
Dave Cameron
12:37
MLB says they've done exactly this, and they say the ball isn't any different. Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur tested a few balls for their 538 study too, and couldn't definitively prove that there's a big change. Realistically, if MLB felt that this was becoming a huge issue, they could put this all to rest by allowing the testing process to be transparent and show that the balls are the same. That they haven't done this is at least a little suspicious, but it's not proof of anything.
Ed in Iowa
12:38
Did you have your five year remission party? If not, my toddler would like to suggest a fancy, costume, pool party.
Dave Cameron
12:38
My checkup is Tuesday.
A. Reitz
12:40
Re: Braves stadium. Didn't really need? Have you been to Turner Field? All I'll say is...don't go for a stroll after a night game. Yeesh.
Dave Cameron
12:41
I have been to Turner Field, yes. Instead of dropping hundreds of millions to move the team, the city could have invested in the area around the ballpark instead.
Zonk
12:42
Jason Hammel hasn't given up a run in his last 3 starts...and you put him in the 'pen for the playoffs?
Dave Cameron
12:42
That rotation is good.
Zonk
12:43
Clubs keep pulling fences in, how much of the increased power comes from park changes?
Dave Cameron
12:44
None. Balls that are hit to the deep outfield are flying over the fence at the same proportion as before; the change is that more balls are being hit to the deep OF now.
njs
12:45
i don't know the PC thing to say to a cancer survivor w/ 5 yrs in remission (congrats?) but whatever is the nicest thing you would want to hear in this situation, consider it said (thanks)!
Dave Cameron
12:45
Congrats works just fine. Thank you.
Josh
12:45
Any questions asking why the Dodgers aren't good today? *crickets*
Dave Cameron
12:45
Many fewer of them than earlier in the year. The fact that the Dodgers are in first place despite all the injuries they've suffered is pretty amazing.
Chet
12:46
Thoughts on the Zach Britton Cy Young debate?
Dave Cameron
12:46
There shouldn't be one; relievers are simply not as valuable as starters.
Andrew S
12:46
Not that it matters, but could Porcello actually make a run at 300 wins? He's young, athletic, has a track record of health and already has over 100 wins. Could he be a guy that has a nice long tail end to his career and be a classic accumulator of stats
Dave Cameron
12:47
I wouldn't forecast any pitcher to win 300 games.
It's 15 wins a year for 20 years. That's almost impossible these days.
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