Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Joel
12:32
Dave, if you were in North Carolina, would you have stayed up until 2:45am to watch that Giants/Cubs game the other night?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Yup.
The Lure of the Animal
12:32
How much of a pitcher's reduced effectiveness on his second and third times through the order can be ascribed to fatigue vs. batters acclimating to his stuff?
Dave Cameron
12:32
We don't know.
Minty
12:33
What do you expect from Benintendi next year?
Dave Cameron
12:33
I'm a fan. I think he's probably a 110 wRC+ guy with plus defense and baserunning.
Shawn
12:33
Obviously, Matt Kemp overall body of work batting and fielding makes him have very low value in terms of metrics. But after trading for him, the Braves overall offense, record, and Freddie Freeman improved. How much does the latter play a part in "valuing" a low metric player such as kemp?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Correlation is not causation. Kemp didn't cause Freeman to catch fire.
Minty
12:34
What regular 1B is Hosmer better than?
Dave Cameron
12:34
Yonder Alonso.
Reggie
12:34
Do you see Red Sox targeting Edwin Encarnacion; softening the loss of Ortiz and weakening a rival?
Dave Cameron
12:34
No. With Pablo coming back, their 3B/1B/DH situation is already kind of crowded, especially if Moncada is going to be the 3B in the not too distant future.
Zonk
12:36
How much extra revenue does each round mean to a team? How much of a hit to KC is not making the playoffs this year? (Moore alluded to this in his payroll plans)
Dave Cameron
12:37
The latter rounds mean more revenues, since they are longer and fans respond more to deep postseason runs. I think the most recent estimates are that a World Series run is worth something like $100 million in future revenues to a team, so making it to an LCS is probably something like $50 million. It's not an immediate cash influx, of course.
But teams that go deep in the playoffs can expect higher future revenues, so they can spend more in anticipation of that growth.
Nate
12:38
T/F the Yankees will drop under the lux. tax threshold this offseason.
Dave Cameron
12:38
False
Bork
12:38
You might be the first person who has said that Red Sox won't be going after EE. Other than the Jays, who else has a glaring 1B/DH hole to be filled?
Dave Cameron
12:39
White Sox, Mariners, Astros if they don't trust A.J. Reed, Rangers.
Dominik
12:39
does the awareness of launch angle and swing plane have something to do with the HR surge? I know it happened too quickly but the fact that there are more 20-30 guys but no 50 guys might point in that direction. after all top sluggers like Chris Davis always Used an uppercut and had not much room to grow because power is limited while 10 HR guys with a downward or level chop swing could gain power with optimizing their swing (optimize for power) plane to a slight uppercut.
Dave Cameron
12:40
Just because we finally got public access to this data doesn't mean teams just did. Teams have had HITF/x for years, so there's no reason to think that players only started adjusting to this kind of data after it became publicly available.
Erik
12:40
Would a team like the Phillies who hope to compete in 18-19 make sense to sign Encarnacion? Or would only teams that have a good chance at competing next year be in for him?
Dave Cameron
12:40
No reason for them to sign a mid-30s player to a market rate deal.
NatsFan
12:41
This isn't meant as a critique: just a legitimate question. Why are the dodgers more likely to move on tomorrow than the Nats according to the playoff odds?D Do the projections think LA is the better team, even given that Kershaw can't pitch tomorrow?
Dave Cameron
12:42
The playoff odds are based on the depth charts, not the individual game match-ups. If you go to our game odds on the scoreboard page, you'll see the Nats are 54/46 favorites. http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2016-10-13
Matt
12:42
I'm asking all FG writers that I can - my bold prediction for Cashman's offseason is acquisition of Sonny Gray. How likely/unlikely is that?
Dave Cameron
12:42
No real reason for Oakland to sell low on him.
Guest
12:43
I've liked the idea of the Astros landing EE for a while. They can DH him and let Reed play first if he breaks out, or let him play first and someone else DH if he doesn't. Gurriel can play LF
Dave Cameron
12:43
Have to think Houston is going to be one of the most aggressive spenders this winter. I bet they get him or Cespedes.
Matt
12:43
Regarding Yanks and lux tax. Preliminary calculations have them at ~$185 next season. Assuming the CBA increases tax, an increase to $200 would be 5.8% (which might be a little light). No good FAs this offseason either.
Dave Cameron
12:45
Even with no good FAs, still have a lot of holes to fill, and even bench players cost $5M per year now.
Going to be hard for them to avoid signing MLB free agents for second year in a row.
Ted
12:45
Is a 5/100 deal this offseason realistic for Chapman?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Yep
Vicente
12:45
Glasnow and Bell is enough to get Archer for the Pirates?
Dave Cameron
12:45
No
Stevil
12:46
Pearce would seemingly be a good fit for Seattle as well, wouldn't he?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Well he just had surgery, so health is an issue there.
HugoZ
12:46
Freeman has stated he thought Kemp had an effect. How comfortable are you in totally discounting player opinion?
Dave Cameron
12:47
It costs Freeman absolutely nothing to give his teammate credit publicly, and might earn him some goodwill from Kemp. That he said it publicly doesn't mean he actually believes it.
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