Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:20
(Verlander has a little trade value, but at 3/$85M or whatever he has left, teams aren't giving up high quality young MLB guys)
Erik
12:21
Which would the Phillies have preferred: the return they could have got for Hellickson at the 2016 deadline, the draft pick they would have received had he turned down the QO, or Hellickson at $17.2 million for 2017?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Probably the draft pick.
But Hellickson at 1/$17M isn't the end of the world, and realistically, they can still trade him if they want to. There were almost certainly teams that would have signed him this winter without having to give up the pack, and would happily take him, especially if the Phillies pay down the salary a bit.
12:22
So you eat $4M or $5M and get a prospect; not that different from drafting a guy you have to give a $4m or $5M signing bonus to.
James
12:22
Any guesses on what the Jays do in LF/RF?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Josh Reddick.
Q-Ball
12:22
If Jon Lester were a free agent right now, do you think he would get more than the 4/105 left on his contract? In other words, is there surplus value there?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Yeah, easily.
12:23
He'd get 5 years minimum, probably 6.
Zonk
12:23
Dave, why no "Anti-Trade Value" article this year? Always enjoyed that one.
Dave Cameron
12:23
It's coming! Decided to roll it into the offseason trade value update.
Which I'm hoping to roll out next week...
Q-Ball
12:23
"Spin Rate" seems to be the latest thing. Is there a resource for fans to look up Spin Rate on a player? Is there something a player can to to increase their spin rate, or is it just a natural talent?
Dave Cameron
12:24
You can get spin rate on Baseball Savant under the Statcast search. From what we can tell at the moment, spin rate is innate, and can't really be "taught"
Andrew
12:24
Obviously it ultimately comes down to final price and their other alternatives, but in a vacuum, are you okay with the Giants putting up the 5/85M plus the draft pick to sign a Kenley Jansen given they are theoretically in a "window"? Or would you advise spending some of that money trying to shore up left field and perhaps go without a cheaper back-end bullpen option?
Dave Cameron
12:25
I wouldn't hate Jansen at 5/$85M. It's not a bargain, but he's really good.
Nick
12:26
Seems like BABIP and LOB% are the main sources of variation between FIP and ERA (correct me if I'm wrong). Do we know which factor pitchers have more control over?
Dave Cameron
12:26
That's correct. And there's a little more variation in pitcher LOB% than pitcher BABIP, because better pitchers are more likely to get hitters out in all situations, including when runners are on base. So a 78% LOB% for a great starter isn't that unusual, for instance.
J.J.
12:27
What tool do you believe is the best to evaluate a minor league prospect by? In other words, a skill that a prospect cannot develop easily.
Dave Cameron
12:27
Contact rate.
You absolutely shouldn't evaluate anyone by just contact rate, but that's the building block.
For both hitters and pitchers. If you can make contact, the power can come later. If you can miss bats, the command can come later.
Kris
12:28
Should the Braves be going after Sale, Gray, Archer etc.? Those are gut the farm system type trade targets...why would they do that given their current spot on the rebuild curve?
Dave Cameron
12:29
They clearly want to move up their timetable to win, but also, I wouldn't take these rumors too seriously. It costs them nothing to make a phone call and find out what the asking price is. I don't think we'll actually see them make that kind of win-now trade this winter.
Runs Allowed Dickey
12:29
What is the highest theoretical WAR? What about realistically? Describe a 20-WAR season
Dave Cameron
12:30
It would have to be a two way player, realistically. If Shohei Otani was Bryce Harper at the plate and Clayton Kershaw on the mound, so he got 600 plate appearances and threw 200 innings, maybe he could get there.
DennetOTM
12:31
You listed Mark Melancon in your 2017 Free Agent Landmines, but not Aroldis Chapman. They have different skills of course, and you were worried that Melancon's pinpoint command may not age well. But is there any reason to think Chapman's superhuman velocity will age well? Given the size and length of his contract I would think he'd also be a free agent landmind.
Dave Cameron
12:31
So I think we don't really know what Chapman would be throwing 98, and that uncertainty is risky, but then again, most lefties who throw 98 are still pretty good.
So I think Chapman can lose a few ticks and probably still be okay.
If Melancon loses a few ticks, he's Jonathan Papelbon.
Another Bill
12:32
You think a Sale or Archer trade package has to include major leaguers?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Doesn't have to be an established guy, but I think Chicago will want someone who can play on their team in 2017.
Moncada could fit that bill, for instance, even if he's not really a big leaguer yet.
CamdenWarehouse
12:33
The "sluggiest sluggers who ever slugged " can in fact keep up Trumbo's HR/XBH hit ratio. McGwire's was 69% over the course of his career.
Dave Cameron
12:33
Okay, if Trumbo can transport himself to the mid-1990s and load up his body with Andro, then he can sustain this.
Elton
12:33
Hello Dave. Have any wild-ass guesses for big hot stove deals? I tried to think of one off the top of my head and Greinke+some money to the Red Sox for prospects suddenly makes a ton of sense to me.
Dave Cameron
12:33
Don't think Greinke is a Dombrowski kind of pitcher.
12:35
In terms of guesses at a blockbuster beyond the Sale/Archer rumors, McCutchen to Cleveland could be fun. Gives them a star-level CF to try and take advantage of window.
PHW
12:35
what are your thoughts on the rumours of the nationals potentially going after miggy or sale
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