Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:52
They've had that core for several years and haven't gotten close. You're overrating the impact of a few players and underrating the impact of the many role players needed to win.
Prich
12:53
Pirates might make Tony Watson available... With his climb in salary ($5.5+), what can they expect for him? Two interesting but flawed prospects, or better?
Dave Cameron
12:53
The HR spike last year is a bit problematic, given that he's not a high-K guy.
12:54
He's only an elite reliever if he's avoiding HRs.
Elton
12:54
If the Cubs might trade for a veteran CF (and assuming you-know-who is off the table) who do you like? Suddenly started dreaming about a Pollock-and-Greinke to the Cubs blockbuster. Assuming Pollock is healthy he'll bring a lot of surplus value but a Schwarber-Pollock-Heyward outfield would be blocking Soler and Eloy Jimenez anyway. (The Cubs would need to add more, I know ...)
Dave Cameron
12:54
That's not happening.
12:55
Still think there's some logic in the Cubs taking part of Jacoby Ellsbury's deal.
Eric
12:55
Which struggling young OF do you prefer next year and going forward? Soler or Conforto?
Dave Cameron
12:55
Conforto.
Zonk
12:55
I foresee the Cubs regressing in run prevention. I also think they could score more runs than last year with a healthy Schwarber and full season of Contreras. Do you agree, or is that just wishful thinking?
Dave Cameron
12:56
Offense probably depends a lot on Heyward. If he bounces back, yeah, they could score more, though the drop in run prevention will still be bigger than the bounce in runs scored.
STiVo
12:57
For an AL team that could use a DH and some outfield depth, what is a fair price for Trumbo given his talent and expected future performance?
Dave Cameron
12:57
4/$40M?
Even that might be generous.
Jim Lonborg
12:58
I believe you that that RS package would be what the WS would expect, but surely it wouldn't actually be a good deal from the Red Sox's perspective, would it? Rodriguez could be quite good, even if not Sale level, and Moncada's a potential star.
Dave Cameron
12:58
Difference between Rodriguez and Sale is ~3 wins for 2017. You don't just get to add 3 wins for nothing.
I don't think I'd make that trade if I was BOS, but I don't think it's a crazy ask from CHW.
Jeff
12:59
Was there ever a point, to your knowledge, that Trout was ever close to bring traded? I mean when he was still in the minors
Dave Cameron
12:59
Nope.
Erik
12:59
One thing I don't understand about how we analyze trade value: don't we focus too much on surplus value and not enough on gross value? For example, wouldn't you rather have a guy who costs $100 million but is worth $90 million than a guy who costs half a million but is worth two millions? Gut says yes, but surplus value says no.
Dave Cameron
1:00
Not if you can spend the $89.5 million you saved on a guy worth $90 million.
Overpaying for a good player is fine if the alternative is the owner pockets the money. But assuming a team can spend the money either way, better to spend it efficiently
Jesse
1:01
What one or two teams do you see being the most aggressive and serious in pursuing Sale?
Dave Cameron
1:02
I could see the Yankees being the "surprise" team on Sale, given that they aren't being talked about that much as a suitor. But you put him in that rotation, and then they spend a little money this winter, and they're ready to win.
DN
1:02
Didn't know you were doing an offseason update to the trade value list. Will that come out all at once or spaced out like the midseason list? Also, that news makes me pretty excited.
Dave Cameron
1:02
The offseason update is a slimmed down single post; much less thorough. More of just a "yeah, Gary Sanchez raised his value a lot!" kind of recognition.
Bend It Like Cameron
1:03
It's getting cold and bleh on the east coast. How's the weather in Bend these days?
Dave Cameron
1:03
It snowed a little bit last night, and the low tonight is 27.
John Stamos
1:03
Are those the 2017 Steamer Projections listed on the player pages now?
Dave Cameron
1:03
Yep.
Okra
1:03
What is your dream job? Owner of MLB team? President of USA?
Dave Cameron
1:04
Guy who runs a dog rescue and gets to play with them all day.
JT
1:04
Ian Kinsler to the Dodgers go down as "most logical trade that doesn't happen?"
Dave Cameron
1:04
I think the Dodgers prefer to trade for young guys.
Jon
1:05
Could you clarify - how does a pitcher miss bats, but lack command? Is that an indicator of just deceptive stuff, even if it's not controlled well?
Dave Cameron
1:05
Yep. Clayton Kerhsaw, for instance, ran high-ish walk rates in the minors while he was figuring out how to pitch.
1:06
Once he figured out how to pound the zone, he took over the world.
TJ
1:06
Puig, Pederson, De Leon and Verdugo for Chris Sale?
Dave Cameron
1:06
CHW does that. LA does not.
JC
1:06
"If you can miss bats, the command can come later." That seems like a very pro Sean Newcomb line if I've ever heard one.
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