Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Logan Davis
12:13
One of the big reasons LAA currently projects better than SEA is that Steamer thinks Trout and Calhoun will replicate their 2016 performances in 2017, but that Seattle's Segura / Cano / Cruz / Seager core will regress by a collective 9 WAR next season. Or 14 (!) if you use bWAR. Is it just me, or does that regression projection for SEA's position players seem... aggressive?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Old guys get worse fast. The Mariners guys are old (or, in Segura's case, coming off a career year), while the Angels guys are young.
Chris
12:14
Wondering what you think of a Dozier trade to the Dodgers. I've heard rumors of DeLeon, Alvarez and one or two lesser pieces. Better for Twins or Dodgers?
Dave Cameron
12:14
I wouldn't give up that much.
Erik
12:15
No division currently projects to be very close, with the Astros' 5-game lead over the Angels in the AL West being the closest. Can you even remember a season where there were no proper division races? What would be the implication on a trade deadline market if all the divisions appeared to be already wrapped up?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Someone will blow out their arm in March and make it closer.
Q-Ball
12:15
The D-Backs jettisoned Castillo for Jeff Mathis. This would never have happened 10 years ago. There seems to be little interest in Matt Wieters. Is the value of catcher framing now fully embraced by front offices? It seems that way from player evals, doesn't it?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I wouldn't go that far; Mathis still got just $2 million a year. But I do think teams are valuing framing more than agents are, so the expectation gap between Wieters and the teams that would sign him is much larger now.
So a team might take Wieters at 1/10, but if he's asking 4/50, then there's no deal to be made there.
Minty
12:16
How does the switching of the Sox affect your outlook on Moncada?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Probably helps him, as the White Sox won't try to rush him to help a team contend. Plus, more likely he can switch to CF now, which is probably his best long-term position, I think.
Rob
12:17
Does Alex Reyes crack the Cardinals rotation this year?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Yeah, that's why they traded Garcia.
Erik
12:18
The Phillies seem content to more or less mill about doing nothing this off-season. Is that appropriate for teams at their stage of a rebuild? Or should they have either signed players who will be key contributors in 2018 or moved more major leaguers for prospects?
Dave Cameron
12:18
They'll go bargain shopping in July.
Bad teams generally aren't signing free agents early in the off-season, since they aren't anyone's first choice.
Tommy
12:18
What books would you recommend for someone relatively new to the kind of analysis at fangraphs?
Dave Cameron
12:19
The Book by Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin.
Meh
12:19
Dumb question, but is there a payroll floor in MLB? If so, why not a cap as well?
Dave Cameron
12:19
There isn't an official floor. If a team doesn't spend enough money, the MLBPA can ask the league to yell at the team, which they've done with the Marlins before.
Rob
12:20
What team do you see as the most likely landing spot for Quintana? Could Pittsburgh be a sleeper considering his contract?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Houston makes too much sense.
Charley
12:20
Is it smarter for Rick Hahn to hold on to Abreu until July or next off-season considering the glut of hitters available this year?
Dave Cameron
12:20
Yep
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:21
Are there any doubts that Beltre is a HOFer at this point? What about Beltran?
Dave Cameron
12:22
Beltre's in. Beltran is a bubble guy. I'd vote for him, but he might get Larry Walker'ed.
JA
12:22
Why has it been 9 days since the last podcast? I'm dying here
Dave Cameron
12:22
We recorded it yesterday. Should go up today.
chuckb
12:23
How much sense would it make for the Cards to sign Edwin E if they could sign him for something around 3/$60?
Dave Cameron
12:23
I'm still not sold on him as an NL player, but at 3/$60M, it might be worth the risk.
dombrowski's id
12:24
Eduardo Rodriguez for Joey Gallo -- who needs to add and how much?
Dave Cameron
12:24
TEX needs to add. Gallo's the hitter version of Giolito; lots of people think his stock tanked in the second half.
_David_
12:25
Are we entering an era where GMs won't be fired very often? If every front office is run by teams of smart people with good philosophies, there will always be a decent enough rationalization for any decision where it's unlikely there will be a preponderance of bad decisions such that change is justified...Will it just be based a lot on the luck of who among a team's acquisitions develops and plays well?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Someone brought this up in DC; it's going to be harder for owners to fire this crop of GMs because they're giving out long-term deals to get these guys, and the title inflation means that everyone is getting paid more. So, yeah, we're probably going to see less turnover in front offices for a while.
Thatguy
12:26
Would you rather have a very deep farm system that lacks a true blue chip talent, or a more shallow farm system with a Bryant level talent in it?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Depends on how deep we're talking, but in general, a guy like Bryant is worth a lot more than a bunch of midlevel prospects.
Rex from Alaska
12:27
For a team like the A's who ship players constantly to-and-from Nashville during the regular season, if the 10-day DL means an increasing number of such transactions, wouldn't that sort of skyrocket travel bills over the course of the year?
Dave Cameron
12:28
I would think it would mean fewer trips to Nashville, since they can now DL guys they would have previously optioned.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:28
If Otani is posted next year. Basically a team will have to spend 20 mil and then go way over budget and endure all the penalties right? There's no way around it?
Dave Cameron
12:29
There are no more penalties; it's a hard cap now. So any team wanting to sign him would have to trade for about $4 million in pool money, then offer him ~$9M, the max any team can offer.
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