Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Nolan
12:34
You mention SS is loaded. In any event, are any of these young superstars the equal of Trout (i.e. the face of baseball) in the next 5 years in your opinion? Seager? Lindor? Correa?
Dave Cameron
12:34
I think Correa probably has the best chance to become that guy. The defense would have to improve but I could see him having a +10 WAR season.
George
12:35
You had an interesting Shelby Miller article. The projections (even fan ones) are pessimistic. What would be your projection for him?
Dave Cameron
12:35
I think you have to ratchet the projections up a bit due to spring training velocity/strikeouts. Not sure he's going to be a great pitcher, but I could see him as a +3 WAR guy, this time without needing the BABIP to get there.
botchatheny
12:36
have you had more or less than 5 twinkies in your life?
Dave Cameron
12:36
More, but I haven't had one in 20 years.
Eric
12:37
Imagine a team that is projected to go 81-81 loses their first 10 games. Would you update their project final record to 76-86? Or would you expect that bad 10 game streak to be counteracted by a good 10 game streak later on?
Dave Cameron
12:37
The former. The latter is the gambler's fallacy.
Zonk
12:37
OK, but back to Rusney....money you give to other clubs for your bad contracts COUNT against the luxury tax, does it not? So, Rusney is stuck. Also, if the Red Sox can avoid tax on Rusney via DFA, why does that not work for, say, Carl Crawford? Is it because Carl didn't go to minors?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Ah, good point; you may be right that if the Red Sox paid for him to be on another team's 40 man, that would count against their tax.
12:38
In which case he's basically stuck, yes.
Jesse
12:38
Does Happ actually have more trade value than Moncada because he could be an above average 2nd baseman right now?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Cubs fans are the best.
Eric
12:38
Who is your favorite non-FG baseball writer?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Brisbee, probably.
JTT
12:39
How is it even possible to have never seen the simpsons? Not saying you need to be a megafan but I seriously cannot comprehend how you haven't accidentally been exposed to an episode via a friend or by channel surfing or by a dentists waiting room over the past 30 years
Dave Cameron
12:39
I just generally don't watch a lot of TV, and when I hang out with friends, it's almost never to watch something together unless it's a sporting event.
Eric
12:40
The Shelby Miller trade is the worst trade in the last X years -- 5? 10? ever?
Dave Cameron
12:41
10. If you go back a bit, before there were any real value calculations going on, you'll see some insane decisions. If the Ken Griffey Jr trade was made today, the Reds would be destroyed for giving up a controllable All-Star CF and a bunch of other pieces of value for the right to pay market price to an aging player.
Babe Lincoln
12:41
What pitcher would have been worth the Shelby Miller trade (assuming same age/contract)?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Chris Sale.
Bunslow
12:42
1) Odds that anyone trades for Mike Trout before his contract is up? 2) Odds that the Cubs do? 3) How would Almora/Jay flopping affect the answer to 2)?
Dave Cameron
12:42
I don't think Trout gets traded unless he asks for one.
No one wants to be the guy who got rid of the best player of his generation.
davels
12:42
Not a pop-culture guy. Do you like outdoors? Have you ever gone fishing?
Dave Cameron
12:43
I do like the outdoors, but haven't gotten into fishing. More of a hiking/skiing kind of guy.
Joseph
12:43
Watch your rangers projection? I think 90 wins, rotation is strong but lacks depth. Houston's rotation doesn't do it for me, counting on a bounce back for kuechel and health for McCullers, lineup may take a few weeks to click. Seattle's pitching doesn't compete with the rangers. What's your take?
Dave Cameron
12:43
The Rangers rotation is bad.
Ben
12:44
The Shelby Miller trade was indefensible at the time to almost everyone. But under what circumstances would MLB actually be compelled to step in and block such a lopsided trade?
Dave Cameron
12:44
If there was evidence of collusion. Short of that, you have to let teams make their own decisions.
Brandon
12:44
Why wouldn't Q return a top 20 prospect? By war he's been a top 10 pitcher the past 3 years and he's pitching in the AL in a very hitter friendly park. On top of that he's on an incredibly team friendly/low risk deal. I'm not attacking your opinion, just curious why you have it.
Dave Cameron
12:45
He's still viewed as a non-dominant guy who relies on command. The stuff isn't ace-like, and teams view him as more of a good pitcher than a great one.
ROBOCOP
12:45
what type of impact, if any, do you see Bellinger having with the Dodgers this year? Spring stats never tell the whole story, but he did seem quite overmatched in most of his at bats
Dave Cameron
12:45
I'd imagine he comes up late-summer, and replaces either whoever is in LF or Gonzalez.
Wil Myers
12:45
Really? Carter Capps or Brad Hand? Are you high?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Oh, right, I forgot that Myers is better than Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Votto, and Freeman. Making the All-Star team as a 1B in the NL is super easy!
Erik
12:46
What makes people higher on Correa than Seager? Both are excellent, obviously, but their stat lines seem very similar, with Seager having played better defense.
Dave Cameron
12:47
Most people don't think Seager is as good as his defensive numbers suggest, and think they were inflated by Dodgers Ps generating weak contact. When talking to industry folks last summer, a lot of them still saw him as a 3B in a few years, and with less long-term power than Correa.
Lane
12:48
Thoughts on the Sanchez-Boras comments? I feel Jays should have at the very least given Sanchez the 15ish thousand they cost him when sent to minors.
Dave Cameron
12:48
I don't really care about Boras' comments, but I do think teams that have these super rigid, almost-no-raise algorithms for their best young players are being penny wise and pound foolish.
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