Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Wes
12:49
With more and more people in baseball ops having a background in economics or coding or mathematics, do you think that the next wave of young hires by teams will be people into management with Kinesiology, bio mechanics, or orthopedics degrees? It seems like the next successful, inventive team will be the one that can best predict and avoid injuries.
Dave Cameron
12:49
That's been happening for a while now.
CamdenWarehouse
12:49
Familia only got 15 games?
Dave Cameron
12:51
As Ken Rosenthal noted, suspension of 31 games or more would have delayed his free agency, which union absolutely would not stand for, and would trigger a huge fight. So it was never going to be more than 30.
Why it was half of Chapman's suspension is something I don't think we have enough public information to know.
Lane
12:51
So something like: "Give good will to the player" get easy PR and player morale points (in regards to Sanchez)
Dave Cameron
12:52
Say $25K makes him happy and this never becomes a story. $25K is, what, a fraction of the team's marketing budget. How is this not having one of your best players publicly trashing you not counteracting at least some of the goodwill that teams pay way more than $25K for.
TERMINATOR
12:52
could the White Sox pry a guy like Bellinger from the Dodgers if they shipped out both Robertson AND Nate jones, and took back a pricey contract like Ethier?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Nah. The Dodgers aren't going to be looking to move a potential franchise guy for relievers.
STiVo
12:53
When do final roster spots have to be determined?
Dave Cameron
12:53
This weekend.
C3P0
12:54
What are your thoughts on DeShields this year? Any good comps of players already on mlb rosters?
Dave Cameron
12:55
Weak bat corner OF with speed and probably plus defense? Ezequiel Carrera, maybe.
Bunslow
12:56
Re the extra $25K, the reason they have formulas in the first place is parity across all rookie contract players. If they give Sanchez an extra $25K, in defiance of their formula, then everyone else on their rookie contract will start complaining, resulting in way more net unhappiness amongst the lowest class. Crappy system all the way around.
Dave Cameron
12:56
If your backup SS who can't hit complains that he's not making the same as Aaron Sanchez, you tell him he can go ride the bus in Triple-A if he doesn't like it.
12:57
I'm pretty sure even young guys know that some young guys are better than others.
Nick S
12:57
The Braves are predictably saying they intend to be better this year. Then they go out and build a 4 man bench that has Bonifacio as the 4th OFer behind 2 bad OFers in Markakis and Kemp. Is this just another year of lip service from the FO, or should we start to worry that they can't properly evaluate players and how they contribute to winning MLB games?
Dave Cameron
12:57
I'd bet they're planning on grabbing some OF on waivers or make a last minute trade.
Julio Pepper
12:57
Well giving Sanchez more money gives them less grounds for not giving all pre-arb players raises right?
Dave Cameron
12:58
Just the good ones. You just change the formula to include some kind of "All-Star bonus" or something.
CubFan
12:58
Which injured/rehabbed pitcher do you see having a better season....Price (likely has a UCL tear), Ross, Richards (rehabbed his UCL vs surgery), Smyly (reported today he's dealing with an arm issue)?
Dave Cameron
12:59
Price. If he had a UCL tear, he'd probably have had surgery.
wizard
12:59
Can you help me square your "gambler's fallacy" answer to the question re: projected 81-81 team losing first 10 games with your earlier comment about not overreacting to April, when good teams can go 0-7; bad teams 7-0?
Dave Cameron
1:00
A good team can go 0-7 and still be a good team, so you shouldn't believe they're a bad team just because they have a bad first week. You should, however, adjust their season expected win total down by ~4 wins, because you expected them to go 4-3 in those seven games.
So now, if they play exactly as you expected pre-season for the next 155 games, they'll finish at 88-74 instead of 92-70, or whatever the numbers are.
STiVo
1:00
Loved your piece The Unchanging Prices of Breakout Stars. Hypothesis: Because there is no free market for these guys (given the arb rules), the main bottleneck in getting the deals done is the willingness of the player. Therefore, these deals track general-price inflation, not the inflation in general player salaries (which track MLB income fairly well). General inflation has been low since the mid-2000s.
Dave Cameron
1:01
Yeah, that's basically right. There's no competing market pushing prices up for these guys.
And these one-year breakout guys don't have the career totals that arbitrators look for, so they can't count on getting big arb payouts, which increases the incentives for taking the guaranteed money.
Ozzie
1:01
Regarding not getting a top 20 guy for Quintana.
Maybe that’s true, but Fangraphs’ Katoh has Giolito at 19. I think the Eaton and Q contracts are approximate in surplus value, perhaps even greater for Q if you’re willing to ding Eaton’s defense in CF.
Dave Cameron
1:01
Giolito's value was down around the game. Everyone knew he was available.
1:02
Alright, thanks for chatting everyone. Carson and I are recording a podcast in an hour, which should be up tomorrow.
Staff predictions for the season coming on Friday.
Then the big Opening Day Chat Extravaganza on Monday.
Should be a fun few days.
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