Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:24
Darvish just came back from TJ last year and is running the lowest K% of his career. It's not like he's any sure thing.
Kim
12:25
Can you humor me and suggest what a return for Paxton might look like?
Dave Cameron
12:25
A little less than Quintana.
yojiveself
12:25
do the phillies stick with the blueprint (amass and develop young arms) or do they recognize that they can afford a huge payroll and start adding pieces in free agency?
Dave Cameron
12:26
They spent a decent amount of money on FAs over the winter. Most of them sucked.
Rebuilding through FA is a bad idea.
Babe Lincoln
12:26
Some Mets people have suggested hanging onto Bruce and making him a QO.  Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Making him a QO would be a great way to pay a guy $18M to be a backup corner OF next year.
He's not as good as Cespedes or Conforto. Let him go.
Morris Buttermaker
12:27
I dont think I've seen a blockbuster for 10 years. Get Netflix!
Dave Cameron
12:27
There's one about two miles from me.
Zock Jr.
12:28
I have to admit, Rafael Devers is adorable. He looks like my 11-year old nephew. But with much better pitch recognition.
Dave Cameron
12:28
If he can grow facial hair, he should, immediately.
Phil
12:28
The Rangers have 20% playoff odds, and as a rental, Yu Darvish won't return a Chris Sale-like package. Why should they trade him?
Dave Cameron
12:28
That's my guess on why they won't.
Gorky
12:28
May have missed it, but your evaluation of the Tyler O'Neill/Marco Gonzales swap?
Dave Cameron
12:29
Not a huge O'Neill guy, and the fact that the market for corner OFs has cratered means that corner OF prospects aren't worth what their prospect rankings might suggest. But Gonzales is also kind of meh.
JD15
12:29
Feel like while the Dodgers are the best team in the NL (and probably baseball), they should really be trying hard for a guy like Britton (similar to Cubs and Chapman last year). Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:30
Britton doesn't look healthy to me. I'd probably try to get Justin Wilson instead.
Bert
12:30
If the Cards packaged Grichuk and one of their pitching prospects, what kind of bat could they get?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Who is the best bat on the market you'd trade Grichuk for, realistically?
This isn't a great time to be trying to add core players. There aren't many out there.
Jordan
12:32
speaking of the worst contract in baseball, when do we get the negative trade value?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Next week, hopefully. Plan is to use it as a way to discuss August waiver trades.
Matt
12:32
The A's have had rumored interest in NYY prospects like Florial and Mateo, but there's no way this deal goes through without someone like Torres as the centerpiece, right?
Dave Cameron
12:32
You're not getting Torres for Sonny Gray.
Jordan
12:33
Hi Dave Can a team add dead money (as in the player is no long in the organization) to a trade, so lets say the RedSox wanted to make a big move and go for either Donaldson or Machado, could they add in some/all the monies owed to Pablo and sweeten the prospect return?
Dave Cameron
12:33
No, once a player is out of the organization, you don't have any ability to assign his contract any more. If they wanted cash to actually send to Sandoval, they would just have to ask for cash in the deal, but it wouldn't be announced as cash for Sandoval's contract.
Jason
12:34
Do you like the Cahill move for the Royals as much as Jeff does?
Dave Cameron
12:34
I think it's a reasonable gamble, but I wouldn't count on Cahill keeping this up.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:36
Let's consider a pitcher who generates lousy FIP numbers but keeps runs off the board, and by extent, is generating great RA-9 numbers. Regarding the WAR that is credited using the two measures - is the difference between the WAR measures as defined by (RA-9 WAR) - (FIP-WAR) that in RA-9, it's getting credited to the pitcher, and in FIP, it's getting credited to the various defensive players?  Sorry if that sounded word salad-y, it was the best I could do to articulate the question.
Dave Cameron
12:36
Basically, yes. FIP gives the pitcher zero responsibility for the results of non-HR batted balls (obviously wrong) and RA9 gives the pitcher all responsibility for the results of non-HR batted balls (also obviously wrong).
12:37
The one adjustment here is that we count infield flies as strikeouts in FIP-based WAR, since they are outs 99.9% of the time, and require no fielder skill.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:38
Shipping off Cordell for Swarzak on a team hovering around 10% playoff expectancy seems like a sub-optimal decision, right?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Cordell looks like nothing you care about losing.
T
12:39
Can you explain the difference between the gambler's fallacy and regression to the mean? If Taylor Motter goes 4-4 one night, don't both principles apply to project his 5th at bat?
Dave Cameron
12:40
The gambler's fallacy is believing that regression to the mean adjusts the odds of future outcomes so that the total, including already completed events, equal the expected result from before those positive events occurred.
So if Motter goes 4-4, you don't expect him to make an out in his next at-bat to even things out. You expect him to get a hit at whatever his expected hit-per-at-bat level is at that point.
Carlton
12:42
What are the Orioles doing? Why wouldn't blow up the team and trade Machado and Britton?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Angelos isn't a fan of rebuilding.
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