Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
powered byJotCast
Timmy G
12:38
Lately, Orioles fans are either lukewarm to Wade Miley's club option of 12 million or downright against it. With the poor SP depth in Baltimore, the one year commitment, and guys like Cashner getting 10 million last year...should the Orioles pick up his option for 2018?
Dave Cameron
12:38
I would not pay him $12 million next year.
RK
12:38
I asked Jeff Wed, but would like your answer as well: what's the biggest obstacle to creating a simplified, productionalized, continuously updating trade value rankings of every player if you had a comprehensive contract database and trusted a given projection system?
Dave Cameron
12:38
You could create an automated surplus value system pretty easily, but there are a lot of variables in trade value that aren't easily quantified.
Eckstein123
12:39
Isn't it possible that the White Sox got those guys without specifically targeting them? It could be that they very much consider minor league performance, but still decided these were the best packages, right?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Sure. But the fact that those guys were available should tell us something. The Nationals were getting out of the Giolito game as fast as possible. The Yankees sold Rutherford before the draft shine wore off and people realized he's playing like a busted prospect. The idea that these guys are as valuable as they were thought to be a few years ago, which is mostly what their prospect rankings reflect, is probably not true.
12:41
As one friend in the game put it, if Eloy Jimenez turns into Domingo Santana, that's a pretty good outcome for this skillset. But are White Sox fans going to be happy with that, given the hype? Nope.
Will
12:42
Would a package including Albies, Soroka, and Wentz be enough to land the braves Sonny Gray?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Yes, but I don't think ATL would do that.
Willie
12:42
Dave, how much does a poor couple months impact player value at the MLB level vs 3 years of good production. Donaldson hasn't been Donaldson. Would his stock drop quite a bit
Dave Cameron
12:43
I think his stock would be down because it's not just a slump; he's on a year or so of battling leg issues, and the power drop is probably related.
You don't care that he's not hitting; you care that he might not be healthy, which might be why he's not hitting, which means he won't hit until he is healthy, and who knows when that will be.
VanExelent
12:44
Do you think the Dodgers will be one of those teams offering a $300-400 million contract to Harper or Machado in a year?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Anyone offering Harper $300 million isn't really trying to sign him.
But yes, I expect they'll be in on the big free agents, and they'll be one of the reasons Harper ends up over $400M and maybe pushes $500M.
Richard
12:46
Devers and Donaldson both received honorable mention on your trade value list.  Could that be a reasonable swap for both sides?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Nah, BOS isn't doing that.
Roger
12:46
Did Adam Duvall get any consideration in the trade value rankings? 4.7 WAR over the last year and a half, and he's under team control for the next four seasons.
Dave Cameron
12:46
Not a lot. He's older and a decent chunk of his value comes from D.
Ryan
12:48
Would Devers for Machado or Donaldson make sense if the teams involved weren't in the same division?
Dave Cameron
12:48
No. Devers is too valuable to give up for a 1.5 year guy.
Guest
12:48
If the DBacks are serious about making a run they can't stay status quo with that pen. Do they have enough prospects to get a front line reliever?
Dave Cameron
12:49
Well, they didn't give up anything to get Martinez, so they still have their whole farm system left. But yeah, I could see them making a big move for an Osuna type.
Charlie
12:49
You wrote about how the White Sox are seemingly taking on riskier prospects in all their trades, which I agree with, but my question is, whats the alternative? Say they traded Sale for Benintendi+, Q for Schwarber+, and Eaton for a near MLB ready prospect as well, and the Yankees package was centered around Miguel Andujar and Dustin Fowler or something. Whats the point of having all these young controllable MLB guys right now? They aren't going to be good in 2018 and 2019 with the Sale-Eaton-Q-Abreu etc core, so why spend two years of all those guys service clocks being bad? Isn't having guys like Eloy, Rutherford, Kopech and co. better since they will be "hopefully" grooming in A, AA and AAA these next two years while the Sox bottom out for top picks to eventually join them? I just didn't see the alternative to trading for who they did.
Dave Cameron
12:50
The piece wasn't a criticism of the decisions. I said multiple times in the piece that Hahn has done well and the team is in better shape than they were before the trades.
But the hype on these guys is not commensurate with how these players are actually playing. When you have people calling this "obviously the top farm system in baseball now", a little dose of reality is called for.
Chris
12:51
How convinced are you Sonny Gray actually moves before the deadline?
Dave Cameron
12:51
100% convinced
Juri Duty
12:52
Does Jurickson Profar start 2018 as anyone's Opening Day shortstop? Does he end up having a decent career?
Dave Cameron
12:52
He's done nothing to show he should start on a big league team.
John
12:52
You think the Dodgers have a better farm system than a team with Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Yup.
Charlie
12:53
Do you think Rick Hahn should have been the guy to oversee the White Sox rebuild, seeing as he's the guy who couldn't build a winner around a cheap Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu? (To be fair, he negoiated all those contracts)
Dave Cameron
12:53
Hahn wasn't really in charge until about a year ago.
EccentricChemist
12:54
While Shark be moved by the Giants? How much value would they even get in return since he seems to be in a similar contract situation as Verlander.
Dave Cameron
12:55
I could see Houston or Milwaukee or one of these teams that sometimes has trouble landing FAs trading for him.
Jumbotron
12:55
Am I wrong, in reading the responses on Darvish, that you seem low on him? For a long time I thought he was considered top of the rotation material. I'll take my answer off the air
Dave Cameron
12:56
Oh, yeah, he's really good. When I talked about upgrading the Cubs #4 starter, I mean that's effectively the position getting swapped out, since you have to move one of Lester/Quintana/Arrieta to that spot and only give them one playoff spot.
Darvish is an ace.
LegallyEagle
12:56
If/when Darvish becomes a FA this offseason, what kind of contract is he looking at. Likewise, with that dollar amount in mind, how many teams realistically are in the chase for him?
Connecting...