Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Lee
12:24
I think the most exciting thing about the first few weeks of  Dever's career is 5 of his 6 home-runs have gone opposite field.   What do you think his peak looks like?  He's a lot more impressive than I expected.
Dave Cameron
12:25
The fact that he has this kind of power while almost never pulling the ball is really quite amazing. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a Freddie Freeman type; it might take him some adjustment period to learn to hit for elite HR power (a few of his HRs so far have been Boston specials), but once he elevates more, he could be the best hitter in the game.
A. Reitz
12:26
RE: Cubs vs. Cards. Cardinals have a better chance of catching Arizona or Colo whom they are 5 behind. Than the Cubs, who have been mediocre all year, they have 7 remaining games against and are only 1.5 behind? Now thats some logic!!
Dave Cameron
12:26
If you're judging teams solely on their 2017 performance to date, you are doing it wrong.
David Keys
12:27
If you had a team where every player is 0 WAR, what is their record?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Theoretically, around 48-114. In reality, would vary around that based on context-specific performance, but replacement level is set at 48 wins per 162 games.
Max
12:29
What do you think of Amed Rosario so far and going forward? Can he be a similar player to Lindor?
Dave Cameron
12:30
The tools are obvious but I'd be concerned about the 65% contact rate. It's going to be very hard for him to be an elite player with that kind of contact. He doesn't have the power to make that work.
Good news is he's 21 and has lots of time to improve. But I don't think he's anywhere near guys like Devers, who are ready to be very good MLB players right away. He's a project with upside.
John
12:31
whats the difference between OPS+ and wRC+?
Dave Cameron
12:31
OPS incorrectly weights OBP and SLG equally, so OPS+ does too. wRC+ corrects for the relative value between those two (OBP is more valuable), and is thus a bit more accurate.
Moonlight Graham
12:32
When can we expect Carson and you to podcast again? We miss him!
Dave Cameron
12:32
Probably next week.
TKDC
12:34
It's probably a terrible idea, but wouldn't it be cool to have baseball games during the solar eclipse?
Dave Cameron
12:34
The Salem-Keizer Volcanoes are doing just that.
Skuggs
12:34
Speaking of Beckham, he's improved his Depth Charts wRC+ projection by over 20 points since the beginning of the season.  Out of curiosity, is there a way to see who has improved on their preseason projections the most?  Or is this not sortable?  Thanks
Dave Cameron
12:34
All our projections are available to download as a CSV from the projections page.
12:35
You can easily compare pre-season and ROS projections there.
Cheek
12:35
What would a package for Nola even look like? Such a valuable asset
Dave Cameron
12:35
Probably something like the Sonny Gray package.
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
12:35
So let's talk potential Nola trades (this should be the first off season article).  Does he get a top ten prospect back?
Dave Cameron
12:35
Nah. Too much injury risk.
Rob
12:36
So I doubt Stanton actually gets traded, but just for fun, what's a realistic return?  A top 25 prospect, despite the massive contract?
Dave Cameron
12:36
He just cleared waivers.
No one's taking that deal without salary offset.
Josh
12:36
Often, critics of WAR cite the fact that the statistic is based on a theoretical replacement level player and is thus flawed. As unintelligent as this argument is, why was the decision made to look at wins above replacement rather than just a total win share number?  This would eliminate the theoretical replacement player argument.
Dave Cameron
12:38
A large part of the value of WAR is being able to model valuations off of it, so you need to have a baseline that matches up with something close to zero marginal cost. if you just do wins above average or something, then you still have to answer what an average player is worth. And that leads you back to replacement level.
Dan
12:38
The Cubs have (for the most part) played like a slightly above average team for 20 weeks. Certainly they may play like a very good team over the last 6; but why is that still the prevailing conclusion? At what point does the year's track record take over when attempting to predict the sss remaining?
Dave Cameron
12:38
It doesn't. There's no time in a season at which you should ignore what happened in prior years.
Jack
12:39
isn't it kinda silly to believe that the phillies won't be good for awhile? They got loads of money to spend and some good young talent
Dave Cameron
12:39
You can't buy help in free agency like you used to.
Sloppy Orel Hershiser
12:40
Do you think the sudden influx of $50m per team from selling shares of BAMTech will lead to a more free-wheeling off-season of free agent spending?  Or does the majority of that money go right in the pockets of the owners?
Dave Cameron
12:40
They've known that additional investment from Disney was coming for a while. I think any additional money going to baseball ops from that windfall is probably already priced in.
5 Run Homer
12:41
Can you explain why OBP is more valuable than SLG? I feel like a bunch of homers and doubles>a bunch of walks and singles
Josh
12:42
Do you think Cueto declines the opt out at this point?  Can he opt out any of the next three years before his contract expires, or is this offseason his only chance?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Yeah, don't see him opting out after what he did this year.
12:43
Bad performance + injury = stock way down.
Pablo
12:44
I heard someone mention Yadier Molina as a likely HOFer. You agree?
Dave Cameron
12:44
yes
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