Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Los
12:44
Plus with wins above average. A slightly below average player is negative by playing a lot while a bad player who doesn't play is 0.
Dave Cameron
12:44
Right.
E
12:44
"You can't buy help in free agency like you used to" is this because teams are smarter and extending their own players through their prime? Or because you typically have to overpay in free agency? Both?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Great young players aren't getting to free agency as often as they used to. This might change in the next few years, as the crop of current great players aren't signing long-term extensions at the rate that prior generations have, but I don't know who the Phillies should honestly be excited about trying to spend money on this winter. Darvish, I guess?
E
12:46
The NBA went through a crazy free agency spending spree last summer with a sudden windfall of money and everyone knew it was coming. Sometimes owners get excited and abandon the plan.
Dave Cameron
12:46
TV rights money is different from tech spinoff investment money.
12:47
Owners basically have to spend a good chunk of their baseball related revenue on baseball players. They don't have to spend money they get from selling BAMTech on baseball.
Bo
12:47
Re: the Cubs and recency bias... When projecting forward, aren't the last, say, 100 games more indicative of future performance than the 100 games prior to that?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Of course. But you're better off looking at 200 than 100.
12:48
Quick time out for a phone call.
12:56
Or maybe not so quick...
Life pro tip: please help your children out by having legal things in place before medical emergencies strike...
12:57
Otherwise they'll end up doing a lot of work in a very short time period.
Cheek
12:58
So if the Yankees had offered the Gray package for Nola, would PHI have said yes?
Dave Cameron
12:59
Probably not, because that deal was particularly risk-heavy and the timelines for the returns are maybe further out than PHI would want. But I could see them accepting a similar overall return with a little less upside and closer proximity to the majors.
5 Run Homer
12:59
Are you better off looking at the past 300 games than 200? Where's the cutoff for when past performance doesn't outweigh current performance?
Dave Cameron
1:00
There's no such thing as "current performance". Everything is in the past; you just have to choose how to weight things based on how recently they happened. If you're getting to 0 weight on anything pre-2017, your projections are going to suck.
Dad
1:01
Did I miss an update on your dad? How is he?
Dave Cameron
1:01
He's going home today, but he's got a ways to go still. Try not to have strokes, everyone. They aren't fun.
Mark
1:01
Seen some conflicting definitions on the site/glossary; wRC+ no longer includes baserunning, right?
Dave Cameron
1:01
Correct.
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
1:02
Re: Nola and other pitchers, at what point do you gamble that a front line pitcher (which Nola is IMO) will be healthy rather than trading while they're at peak value?
Dave Cameron
1:03
When you're at a point where you can realistically contend in the next couple of years. The Phillies aren't there.
Jeff in T.O.
1:03
Better hitter for the next 5 years, Betts or Devers?
Dave Cameron
1:03
Bat only? I'll take Devers.
hayden
1:03
The A's finally have some outfielders, and it'd be great to move Davis' noodle arm to DH. Does that mean Ryon Healy doesn't have a place, except maybe as a RH platoon for Olson?
Dave Cameron
1:03
Well he's not very good so that doesn't seem to be a problem.
bleepbloop
1:04
Which bottom dwelling team is the best bet to make a major turnaround like the Astros have over the last few years?
Dave Cameron
1:05
The Phillies are the most likely of the current rebuilders to come out of this really strong. But that's probably 2020.
Maybe 2019 if they hit on a bunch of smart trades in the next year.
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
1:05
Sorry to harp on this Nola issue trade thing, but I think it's a great example.  Sure the Phils won't be good for another 2-3 years.  But finding pitchers like Nola isn't easy. What are the math odds that you'd find a replica of Nola when you are good? And wouldn't it be better to gamble he's healthy for three to four years than to gamble you can find his replacement in that same time frame?
Dave Cameron
1:06
By the time the Phillies are good, Nola will have a year or maybe two left before free agency. What you want to do is line up your assets so that they can stay together for a sustained period of time.
1:07
And again, my concern would be more about injury with him. Just too high of a chance that he goes Brandon Webb and goes from your ace to nothing.
Rebuilding teams shouldn't be retaining high-risk present value assets, in most cases.
Alright, thanks for hanging out, everyone. Will do it again next week.
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