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Division Series Live Chat - 10/5/18
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Sean Dolinar
2:24
The scaled stats are not quite as easily understood without really going to an explanation.
Chris
2:24
Hooray being off to watch playoff baseball. Would love more Statcast broadcasts. That was cool.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Center field was a black hole for the Indians. The acquisition of Leonys Martin looked to solve that, but he got frighteningly sick soon after being acquired.
NotGraphs Revivalist
2:25
How does everyone feel about the start times of the DS games?
Sean Dolinar
2:25
You have to give each it's own exclusive window. The early games stink for the fans that have them (IMO). But I loved getting home from school and watching those LDS games in middle school / high school.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
whaddaya gonna do? 4 games and MLB wants to maximize audience, so you can't run them all simultaneously. Somebody's gotta play in the day, and my god how much complaint do we get about having no World Series day games anymore.
TJF1777
2:27
Given that he's just flat out not starting anymore- is it a foregone conclusion that Brett Gardner gets bought out for 2018 instead of the option picked up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
his option isn't so burdensome ($12.5M) that they couldn't pick it up and try to engineer a deal (though Gardner has 10/5 rights). Clint Frazier's concussion issues may still be a concern, but I suspect based upon how little he was used late in the year that the Yankees will respectfully let Gardner walk and find a deal that suits him unencumbered.
BK
2:28
For those of us still at work, someone please keep us updated on the score!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
still 0-0 in the top of the 2nd. No hits yet.
Nate
2:29
The amount of anti-openers that exist out there, we've got a lonnnnngggg way to go before sabermetrics are welcomed on broadcasts full-time
Walter Benjamin
2:29
Europe feels great about the start times. Let them start at 8am ET for all I care
Sean Dolinar
2:29
Yeah, people don't like change. But I'm surprised how quickly stuff has changed in 2018 regarding pitcher usage. Ben and Jeff made a good point on EW about the statcast broadcast...the best part was actually the lack of a baseball grump, everyone was just happy about baseball. Really refreshing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I can tell you from the standpoint of being on site for coverage that 8 PM games suck royally. I didn't get home from the AL Wild Card game until well after 2 AM
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
2:30
Is the chat going on all day with staff switching out after the games?
Sean Dolinar
2:30
Probably for the first two games. I'm not sure about the night games.
E
2:31
I live/work in Cleveland, they wouldn’t put the game on the monitors we have throughout the office. So we’re all just watching on our phones.
Rob
2:31
I totally agree with Sean.  For younger fans, games right after school are amazing.
Nate
2:31
No World Series day games = damn the MLB
Playoff day games = damn the MLB.

Some people are better off watching Friends re-runs.
Sean Dolinar
2:31
That what I was watching before the MLB coverage came on!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
I've never watched more than 30 seconds of Friends in one sitting
stever20
2:34
so is this a matchup of 2 future HOF pitchers today?  Kluber and Verlander
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
A third Cy Young might change things but I think Kluber got too late a start to mount a strong HOF case without remaining unusually durable; he didn't have his first good season until age 27. Might be worth a closer look in an article. I do think Verlander has turned the corner with his rebound over the last 3 seasons.
Sean Dolinar
2:37
Yeah, that's not a bad approach. You might still have to abstract 'total offensive output' vs. something more concrete.  I think percentiles are also intuitive, but we don't really have any stats that use them.   

I think WAR is also working its way into acceptance. I've seen it on displays at the HoF. It comes up in the MVP discussions every year now. Definitely one of our most popular stats at FG.
wRC+ Lover
2:37
Instead of wRC+, why not just say "batter hit 25% better than league average." It's so intuitive!
DY
2:39
I see Astros hit balls decently hard (95mph plus).   how much should we read into exit velocities to as leading indicator for offense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
I'm sure somebody could give you a better, more technical answer but to me, exit velo by itself isn't enough. Look at launch angle as well, and either xwOBA or hit probability. For example on those three 95+ for Kluber, two of them had hit probabilities of <15%, and the hardest hit one (Gurriel) was just 31%
Iggy Pop Has Raw Power
2:39
Here is some pedantry for you:  Don't worry about Kluber's rate of hard contact -- that is an effect.  Worry about the cause (diminished stuff it seems).  Worrying about an indicator itself misses the point -- indicators point to other things.  But yes I am worried about Kluber as someone with money on Cleveland.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
well put
zurzles
2:42
Call me old fashioned but straight out replacing traditional stats with abstract league-adjusted formulas is a good step towards making baseball as inaccessible as possible for potential fans. OBP would be a better replacement, but it's not like straight up BA is useless.
Sean Dolinar
2:42
All stats have some learning curve and take time to work its way into baseball culture.  I don't think everyone knows how to calculate ERA, but most baseball fans know a good ERA vs a bad ERA. And they know it's tied to the runs a pitcher gives up.

I'm not sure if OBP would be the best replacement for BA. OPS would have my vote.
Dylan
2:42
It still blows my mind how Stetson University produced Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber within 3 years of each other
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
They took a break from making hats to make some ace pitchers.
Randal Grichuk
2:42
I love the Donaldson pickup.. I think he could be in for a nice series
Sean Dolinar
2:42
This is one of the reasons why the projections are high on the Indians.
E
2:43
The best part about the ‘nerdcast’ was no platitudes and clichés that don’t offer any substance.
Sean Dolinar
2:43
Yes! 100% agree.
Bernie Madoff
2:43
Just taking a break from my "investment" job. Score update?
Sean Dolinar
2:43
0-0
The Ghost of Babe Ruth
2:46
What probability do you assign to a "strong" HOF case? 50%? 75%?
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