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Division Series Live Chat - 10/5/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
It really varies. I don't spend a lot of time trying to throw numerical probabilities so as to keep things simple (there are enough numbers in play already if I'm citing JAWS). But mentally, I think some strong cases are 90% or above, and the only question involves timing and traffic on the ballot. Others, i think have a good case but the voters might take time to come around, maybe it's a 50% shot.
Iggy Pop Has Raw Power
2:48
An economist probably invented OPS. Who else would simply add together two fractions with different denominators as if that is how math works?
Sean Dolinar
2:48
Possibly. The math in the early sabermetrics is basic.  The data they had wasn't much and they weren't the Statistics PhDs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
If I'm not mistaken it was John Thorn and Pete Palmer who introduced OPS. You can go yell at them, I'll wait here and be glad they paved the way for bums like me.
All Cats Are Beautiful
2:50
How is it possible the Yankees went into rebuild mode at the 2016 trade deadline and immediately got better?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Because Brian Cashman has done a great job of remaking the Yankees' front office over the years while shifting from the Jeter-era team to this one. Go check out the piece that Marc Carig and Eno Sarris did for the Athletic this week.
OPS Disliker
2:51
Does it bother you that OPS is a stat that combines two stats with different denominators? and plain OPS doesn't adjust for park / league context? I feel like if you're going to push an "advanced" stat, OPS isn't the one. I am really not sure why it's gained mainstream acceptance!
Sean Dolinar
2:51
The two different dominators don't bother me because it serves its purpose to succinctly summarize a players batting contributions. I wouldn't use it for research or modeling.
Chatter (person) Chatter (talk)
2:53
Does doing a chat take away from the enjoyment of the game for you guys? I love these, but I don't have to wade through 100's of Q's while also trying to watch the game.
Sean Dolinar
2:53
A little. I would otherwise be coding the new prospect board while watching.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
OPS worked as a gateway drug to show people there is more to offense than just batting average. You're much better off using OPS+ or wRC+ than raw OPS.
2:54
It's tough sometimes to watch and chat, and at times I have to back off the questions so I can appreciate what's unfolding, or catch up with what I missed. But I wouldn't do it if the combination didn't produce some amount of enjoyment as well alongside the game.
Tyler
2:54
How was the Donaldson trade allowed to go through.  He went on the DL for the same injury right away.  I thought that was not allowed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
There was certainly some grumbling from a few teams. You're allowed to trade a player on the DL, but you're not supposed to be able to put an injured ones on waivers. that's where the beef with the Donaldson trade is
Sean Dolinar
2:54
I also will explain OPS is analogous to Fahrenheit temperatures. where 70s (.700) is room temp or average....80 (.800) is warm. 90 is hot. And anything over 100 is insane.
Not that it's intentionally scaled to that, but it's happenstance.
Not Jose Altuve
2:55
Doesn't OPS get you like, 90% of the way there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
maybe 80-90%. You don' t have the park or league context without a "plus" stat so for cross-era purposes raw OPS is pretty weak.
James
2:56
Is the demise of the Dodger's Bullpen a little overstated?  They have a solid lefty in Ferguson, and starters Maeda/Wood, not to mention solid guys like Floro and (gasp) Baez.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I think there are two things going on: 1) a lot of fretting, not unreasonable, about Jansen's condition and struggles. he's not the 4-6 out guy this time around; and 2) the other guys simply haven't been consistent, and the transitioning of Maeda and Stripling hasn't yielded the strong results as expected. Yes, Ferguson and Floro are pretty solid, and Baez isn't as bad as he is simply excruciating to watch given his pace; and 3) there are better bullpens in this postseason, such as the Brewers, Astros and Yankees. the Dodgers' simply isn't a strength anymore.
2:58
that's three things, of course.
Tyler
2:58
OBP + ISO would be better than OPS right?
Sean Dolinar
2:58
The problem is the weighting for different run values. I'm not sure if OBP + ISO would be better.  wOBA accounts for that. Then you have the park and league factors which is what adjusted and scale stats do.
stever20
3:00
saw your thing Sean and thought you were talking about OPS+.   was like 70 is average???
Sean Dolinar
3:00
No...70s degrees F is about room temp...and .700s in OPS is about average. It's a rough rough point of reference for those who haven't seen OPS before. I haven't mentioned OPS+ today.
zurzles
3:00
I don't want to get into a huge broadcast/stats debate (well I do but I'm at work) but the most important thing is always going to be that a broadcaster knows how to communicate what the stat means in a way that's accessible. Nearly every time I see a broadcast with shoehorned sabermetrics the broadcaster just recites them with a befuddled tone before changing the subject as quickly as possible.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
I don't think a broadcaster has to rely on advanced stats — Vin Scully being a perfect example. Mostly I just want announcers who are enthusiastic about the game in front of them rather than complaining about kids doing donuts on his lawn. Certain broadcasters are driving people away from watching baseball because they can't help but spit on the product in front of them .
Devil Ray Jay Johnson
3:03
How much does Ichiro's death grip hanging on the last few years hurt his HOF vote?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
not a bit, given the 3000 hits, 10 All-Star appearances and other honors, not to mention that he was generally beloved throughout the game.
jkim
3:04
Ryu: What kind of contract will he get in the offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
something along the lines of Rich Hill's 3/$48M, adjusted for the current market, maybe?
3:06
Lance Biggerstaff
3:07
The Yankees didn't "rebuild". They traded away a couple of relievers and their ridiculous level of resources would make it laughable for them to ever truly rebuild. Most teams in the league would be sunk by the Ellsbury contract - for them, it's nothing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Rebuild vs. reload, sure, it's a semantic distinction. They still  made great trades and international signings, built a mother of a farm system. Helped by money, sure. Ask any exec in the league what they think of the job the Yankees have done and you won't find one who isn't impressed.
Tom
3:11
HOFers in this game - over/under 3.5. What do you take?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
That looks about right. Verlander and then 2-3 from among Lindor, Correa, Ramirez and Bregman.
Strelok
3:12
Why does everyone say Snell deserves Cy Young when Verlander has been better in eveything except ERA
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Dunno about "everybody" but guys who lead the league in both wins and ERA have historically tended to win the award. It's not like Snell didn't do other good things, either. 3rd in AL in K%, for example, with a lower hit rate than Verlander — not everybody is going to give 100% of the credit for that to the two defenses, for example. Snell's a reasonable pick, JV's a reasonable pick, Sale's a reasonable pick and would probably be mine, even with the low innings total
Floyd
3:15
I like the school grade scale for OPS:
.900-1.000 is an A, .800-.900 is a B, .700-.800 is a C, and so on
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