JotCast | Division Series Live Chat

Division Series Live Chat - 10/5/18

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Dan Szymborski

3:41

It's the defensive adjustments

dude

3:42

How much do Scherzer's three Cy Youngs bump his chances? What value is placed on individual awards?

Dan Szymborski

3:43

I can't remember the last time I talked to another voter who cared much about that. Jay?

Jay Jaffe

3:43

There's no 3x winner besides Clemens outside the Hall, so that certainly helps. Max gets a 138 on Bill James' HOF Monitor, which captures awards, black ink and postseason — 100 is a good chance, 130 a very good chance. Still needs the bulk stats but I think the peak numbers are among the best for this era

Dan Szymborski

3:43

Oh wait, I'm sorry dude, I misread the thrust of the question.

3:44

I thought we were talking this year's Cy voting, not Hall.

Jay Jaffe

3:45

Historically, voters do care about awards, yes, though if you look at the Monitor nuts and bolts you can see that some matter more than others (ROY, not much for example). That's one reason why it's important to get them right

3:45

Anyone know how much these guys get paid during the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

3:45

On Nola, DRS has the Phillies at -136 runs defensively, so Nola gets a big boost.

I would personally regress one-year defensive numbers in WAR, but I have lost that debate.

Jay Jaffe

3:45

if I'm not mistaken, the entirety of the salary is drawn during the regular season. Every postseason team gets a cut of the postseason dollars, depending upon how far they get.

Dan Szymborski

3:46

I believe you are correct.

Walter Benjamin

3:48

I think we all would benefit from a chat about anything with WB — even wrc+ in tv broadcasts. Sadly, I am merely an impostor.

Jay Jaffe

3:48

i wasn't going to say anything but your aura is somewhat lacking, now that you mention it

3:50

George Springer: Sprung. 3-0

3:52

Altuve: Boom as well. 4-0. Klubot batteries wearing down quickly.

Guest

3:53

How did the salary obligations work for game 163s?

Also how does service time work for game 163?

Dan Szymborski

3:53

You don't get a bonus for 163 (nor is your check smaller if 162 isn't played because of rainout)

3:54

You get service time for every day of regular season you're on 25-man roster, but the max is already 172

Jay Jaffe

3:55

you mean there's not a guy at the end of the dugout peeling off Franklins for the extra game? "Here, nice job Yelich, go buy your girlfriend something nice."

stever20

3:56

Do you think Manny Machado pressed a bit with the Dodgers? His offensive numbers way down compared to being with the Orioles. 155 wRC+ to 121 with the Dodgers. OPS+ 164 to 122. Do you think if they make the World Series(especially if vs Red Sox or Yankees)- that familiarity would really help him out a lot?

Dan Szymborski

3:56

Can put it this way easily: if you got a discount for only playing 161 games, there's no way the Marlins wouldn't try to claw back the salary

3:57

I think you can ready too much into slices of a season. Machado just hit worse with the Dodgers and the O's, no need to read too much into it without really compelling reason of some type.

Jay Jaffe

3:57

while I do think it can take time to acclimate to a new team and new expectations, I'd be wary of that assumption. FWIW, Machado's 121 wRC+ with the Dodgers was right around his career mark (120). It's his 140 with the Orioles that was the surprise.

Bebop

3:57

i don't watch much Rockies b-ball, always liked Charlie Blackmon due to his amazing beard & hair, but is he really that horrendously awful a CFer? he has a 0.8 WAR this year despite some really solid offensive numbers, but baseball reference has him at a -2.7 dWAR? does he need to be moved to right field post haste?

Dan Szymborski

3:57

He takes a huge hit on DRS. I tend to think the magnitude is a bit high there.

3:58

the WAR that ZiPS uses smooths defense and generally takes a middle position on FIP vs. defense related ERAs

stever20

3:58

what about partial year guys that split between AAA and MLB? Do they get an extra day of service?

Dan Szymborski

3:58

As far as I know, they get the day of service if they're on the roster.

Woad Raider

3:58

NL playoff bullpen ranks: 1. Brewers 2. Rockies 3. Dodgers, 4. Braves?

Dan Szymborski

3:58

It's relatively rare enough that I doubt it's ever made a difference for any player's eligibility

Jay Jaffe

3:58

I might swap Dodgers and Rockies there, but the gulf from 1 to the field is large.

Dan Szymborski

3:59

I'd flip 2 and 3 also.

Rockie Dangerfield

4:00

Charlie Blackmon's never going to win a GG or anything, but yes, he has been that bad this year. I think everybody's working hypothesis is that he's been playing on a wonky quad all season (he hasn't looked himself on the basepaths either). Ideally we'll see him moved to a corner for Dahl or Tapia next spring, but I don't see Bud Black forcing that issue.

Jay Jaffe

4:00

I don't see the Rockies getting anything right with regards to their outfield.

Ever.

Dan Szymborski

4:01

Blackmon's age starts with a 3, so no way Black's going to do anything Blackmon doesn't want.

Dan's Cat

4:01

What about a guy who plays 164 games because he was traded mid-season and his 2nd team had more games left on the schedule?

Dan Szymborski

4:01